ORDI poised for a 61.8% retrace test: buy the dip for a push into 10.40–10.50

ORDI deep-dive: multi-timeframe, multi-tool technical read, with a 24-hour game plan

1. Market structure and context (daily)

• Regime recap: After a late-June capitulation to ~6.58, ORDI staged a July trend advance to ~11.97 (7/21 peak), then mean-reverted into August, printing a local trough at 8.48 (8/19). On 8/22 it posted a wide-range bullish day (low 8.36, close 10.08) on elevated volume, reclaiming key swing levels and signaling a momentum regime shift back to bullish-neutral.
• Higher-lows sequence: 8.48 (8/19) → 8.70 (8/21) → strong close 10.08 (8/22). The sequence suggests an emerging uptrend from the 8.48 pivot.
• Key swings: Resistance stack at 10.40–10.50, 10.67, 11.07, 11.38, and 11.65–11.97. Supports at 9.83–9.80 (neckline/cluster), 9.60, 9.26–9.21, 9.00, then 8.70/8.48.

2. Intraday (hourly) structure for 8/23

• Consolidation after impulsive up-day: Range roughly 9.51–10.29 with most hours clustering 9.93–10.10. This looks like a modest bull flag/hold above round-number 10.00 amid weekend liquidity.
• Micro S/R: Support band 9.90–9.95 (VWAP/proximal bids), resistance 10.10–10.12 (intraday supply), then 10.28–10.30 (prior session high) and 10.44–10.50 (daily fib/resistance confluence).

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~9.45 based on last 20 closes. Current price ~10.00 sits ~+5.8% above, indicating positive short-term bias.
• 50-day SMA (qualitative): Likely ~9.2–9.4 given June-July distribution; price above 50-SMA supports a forming medium-term up bias.
• Slope: 20-SMA turning up after basing; 20 > 50 cross risk-on setup likely to develop if follow-through persists.
• 1h EMAs: Price oscillating just above rising 1h 20/50 EMAs (inferred from price action), consistent with bull consolidation.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI (14d, qualitative): After rally from 8.48 to 10+, RSI likely mid-50s to low-60s—bullish but not overbought. Plenty of room for continuation.
• RSI (1h, qualitative): Hovering around 50–55 with shallow pullbacks—classic consolidation following thrust.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely flipped positive on 8/22; signal crossover developing. Momentum up but flattening intraday—healthy pause.
• Stochastic (1h): Mid-range churn, not overheated—room to cycle up on a breakout over 10.10.

5. Volatility and bands

• ATR (daily, est): ~0.8–1.1 given recent candle ranges. Expect a 24h potential range of ~±0.8 from mid-price.
• Bollinger Bands (20d): Mid ~9.45. Estimated upper ~11.0, lower ~7.9 given recent dispersion. Price is in upper half, not at the band—suggests space before volatility extremes.

6. Volume/participation

• 8/22 uptick: Volume 86M vs recent daily median materially higher, confirming the breakout. Follow-through day (8/23) shows typical weekend liquidity fade but no distributional damage—constructive.
• OBV (qualitative): Turned up with 8/22 impulse; lack of heavy sell volume on 8/23 supports accumulation.

7. Pattern recognition

• Double-bottom/W-formation: Lows at 8.48 and higher reaction low 8.70 set a W; neckline ~9.80–9.83 was cleared decisively 8/22. Measured move from midline suggests targets near 10.9–11.2.
• Inverse H&S flavor: Left shoulder ~9.60 (8/11), head 8.48 (8/19), right shoulder ~8.70 (8/21); neckline ~9.80–9.85 now retested by time. Breakout is intact.
• Intraday ascending triangle attempt: Base 9.95–10.00; cap ~10.10. A clean break projects ~0.15–0.20 measured move to 10.25–10.30 initially, with extension into the 10.40s on trend continuation.

8. Fibonacci mapping (from 7/27–7/28 swing high 11.651 to 8/19 swing low 8.477)

• 38.2%: ~9.69 (already reclaimed, now support).
• 50%: ~10.06 (current pivot zone; acceptance above implies trend continuation).
• 61.8%: ~10.44 (first major upside magnet/resistance).
• 78.6%: ~10.97 (secondary target aligning with measured-move projections). Confluence: 10.44–10.50 aligns fib 61.8% with prior horizontal supply (10.40–10.50) = high-probability reaction zone.

9. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Tenkan likely ~9.55–9.65; Kijun ~9.25–9.35. Price above Tenkan/Kijun indicates short-term trend resumption. Cloud likely thinning above; 10.4–10.6 may be near Senkou resistance—again matching fib/resistance.

10. Mean reversion and VWAP

• Anchored from 8/19 low: Price has consistently held above notional aVWAP since 8/22 impulsive day; dips toward 9.90–9.95 are buyable against that pivot while the structure remains intact.
• Round-number effect: 10.00 psych level acting as intraday magnet; sustained closes above 10.06 (50% fib) typically produce probing into 10.3x/10.4x.

11. Statistical framing for next 24 hours

• Base case (60%): Range hold above 9.90 with breakout through 10.10 → test 10.28 then 10.44–10.50.
• Pullback case (25%): Stop-hunt into 9.80–9.85 (neckline retest) then rebound; structure still bullish unless 9.72 fails.
• Bear rejection (15%): Failure under 9.72 opens 9.60 and 9.26; would negate the short-term bull setup. Expected path of least resistance: Higher into 10.40–10.50 with intraday whipsaws.

12. Confluence summary (why upside edges out)

• Momentum thrust day (8/22) with volume confirmation.
• Price above rising 20/50 MAs; 20d SMA upturn.
• Multiple pattern breakouts (W/neckline) now consolidating above breakout.
• Fib 50% reclaimed; next magnet 61.8% at 10.44.
• Intraday structure supportive (triangle/flag), RSI not overbought, room to run.

13. Trade plan (24h)

• Bias: Buy-the-dip into 9.90–9.95 support or breakout add over 10.10.
• Optimal entry: 9.92 (just below intraday support to maximize R:R while improving fill odds).
• Take profit zone: 10.44–10.50 (first confluence target).
• Suggested risk (for context): Stop below 9.72 (below prior intraday swing and neckline buffer).
• Indicative R:R: Entry 9.92, TP 10.48 (+0.56), SL 9.72 (-0.20) ≈ 2.8:1.

14. What invalidates

• Hourly close below 9.72 or a daily close back under 9.83 would weaken the breakout thesis and favor mean reversion to 9.60/9.26.

15. Bottom line forecast

• Expect a constructive consolidation to resolve higher. Probable 24h probe into 10.40–10.50 after a shallow dip. Strategy favors a tactical long.