ORDI coils under 9.00: setting up a tactical relief pop toward R2

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish within a range. Expect chop between 8.72–9.12 with an upside skew if 8.88–8.90 is reclaimed on firm volume.
• Thesis: After a sharp three-day selloff (8/23–8/25) and subsequent basing around 8.6–8.9, momentum is stabilizing. Multiple mean-reversion indicators (RSI ~36, stochastic low, price near lower third of the 20D Bollinger envelope) point to a relief pop toward 9.00–9.12, while higher-timeframe trend remains down. Trade the bounce, not the trend, with tight risk.

Detailed step-by-step analysis

1. Market structure and price action

• Higher-timeframe context (Daily): ORDI peaked in late July near 12.0 and has been in a broad pullback. Recent swing high 10.13 (8/22) -> swing low 8.10–8.34 area (8/25). Since then, price is compressing between 8.65 support and 9.00 resistance.
• Intermediate trend: Lower highs since 8/22 form a descending channel; however, the last three daily closes stabilized (8.34 -> 8.65 -> 8.66), signaling potential base-building.
• Intraday (hourly for 8/28): Multiple tests of 8.77–8.81 with quick reclaims; repeated failures near 8.99–9.06. This is classic range-bound behavior with buyers defending dips and sellers leaning into the round 9.00 handle.

2. Key levels (derived from recent highs/lows, pivots, and clustering)

• Supports: 8.72–8.81 (intraday shelf), 8.65 (8/27 close area), 8.46–8.50 (gap/mid-zone), 8.34–8.40 (8/25 base).
• Resistances: 8.88–8.90 (micro shelf and 38.2% retrace vicinity), 9.02–9.06 (R2/pin highs), 9.11–9.15 (50% retrace), 9.35 (61.8% retrace), 9.60–9.80 (prior supply), 10.00 (psychological).

3. Fibonacci mapping (swing 10.13 -> 8.10)

• Range = 2.03. Key retracements from the low: • 38.2% = 8.876 (current price trades just below/around this level; pivotal intraday trigger). • 50% = 9.115 (first substantial daily resistance if 9.00 breaks). • 61.8% = 9.354 (upper objective on a stronger relief rally; less likely within 24h without a volume expansion).

4. Moving averages

• 5D SMA ≈ 9.03; 10D SMA ≈ 9.03; 20D SMA ≈ 9.31 (estimates from provided closes). • Price 8.85 is below 5/10/20 SMAs, confirming the broader short-term downtrend. • However, proximity to the 5/10D SMA cluster implies magnet potential toward ~9.00 on mean reversion.
• 50D SMA (approx) likely above 20D, keeping higher-timeframe trend bearish; this caps upside toward mid-9s.

5. Momentum indicators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 36: Bearish territory but not oversold; suggests bounce risk is elevated relative to further immediate downside extension.
• Stochastic (14) estimate: close in the lower 25–30% of the range -> oversold zone; supportive of a short-term pop.
• MACD (daily): Likely negative and flattening after the 8/25 washout; histogram contraction favors a pause-to-bounce scenario rather than immediate breakdown.
• DMI/ADX: Trend strength has likely diminished post-selloff (ADX easing), consistent with range behavior; trend-following signals downgraded, mean-reversion signals upgraded.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20,2): With 20D SMA ~9.31, current trade is in the lower third of the envelope; prior lower band tests on 8/25–8/26 led to stabilization. A tag toward the mid-band (~9.31) would be an upside stretch target beyond the next 24h base case.
• ATR(14) daily estimated ~0.6–0.9. Expect a 24h realized range ~0.7 (8–9% of price), aligning with a 8.72–9.12 base case.

7. Volume and participation

• Post-8/25 volumes were elevated into the selloff, then moderated as price compressed. This looks like selling pressure exhaustion followed by balanced flows. A breakout above 9.00–9.06 needs a fresh uptick in volume to sustain toward 9.11–9.15.
• OBV/inference: Flat to slightly rising since 8/26, suggestive of quiet accumulation on dips.

8. Candlestick and intraday patterns

• Daily candles after 8/25 show small bodies and reduced ranges: a volatility contraction at support.
• Intraday 8/28 shows multiple rejection wicks above 8.98–9.05, but also higher lows versus the morning, implying a coiling structure. Resolution typically follows within 1–2 sessions.

9. Pivot points (Classic, from 8/27 H/L/C ~ 8.888/8.571/8.658)

• Pivot P ≈ 8.706; R1 ≈ 8.840; R2 ≈ 9.023; S1 ≈ 8.523.
• Current price ~8.85 sits just above R1; typical path is a retest of P/R1 band followed by a push toward R2 if buyers maintain control. This aligns with a tactical long targeting 9.02–9.08.

10. Ichimoku (daily approximation)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period mid) ≈ (9-day high + 9-day low)/2 ≈ (10.13 + 8.34)/2 ≈ 9.235.
• Kijun-sen (26-period mid) likely near ~10.0.
• Price < Tenkan < Kijun and likely below the cloud: higher-timeframe bearish regime. However, mean reversion toward Tenkan (~9.23) is a common behavior after a sharp drop, providing an upside roadmap if 9.12 breaks in coming sessions.

11. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (tactical)

• From 8/22 high, an A-B-C corrective leg likely completed into 8/25–8/27. Current action resembles Wyckoff Phase B/C of a small range with spring risk below 8.70 and subsequent test back into 8.90–9.05. This supports a buy-the-dip intraday plan with tight risk.

12. Confluence and probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Bullish factors: RSI/stoch oversold, price near lower Bollinger zone, pivot confluence above R1, repeated defenses of 8.75–8.81, potential bullish divergence versus 8/25.
• Bearish factors: Price below 5/10/20D SMAs, descending channel, strong supply near 9.10–9.35, macro trend still down.
• Net: Relief-bounce probability modestly exceeds breakdown probability over the next day. Base case range 8.72–9.12, with path dependency: • If 8.80–8.82 holds on a retest, expect a grind to 8.95–9.02; extension toward 9.08–9.12 if volume improves. • If 8.74 fails decisively, expect 8.62 then 8.50 tests; that invalidates the long idea.

Trade plan and risk

• Setup: Tactical long, mean-reversion to R2/50% fib band.
• Entry: Use a buy-limit on a pullback into 8.78–8.82. Optimal: 8.80.
• Take-profit (24h horizon): 9.05 (just above R2 9.02 and below the 9.11 fib to improve fill odds).
• Suggested stop (for risk control, not part of required outputs): 8.62 (below shelf and prior session support). This yields roughly +3.0% upside vs ~-2.0% downside; R:R ≈ 1.5:1 for a day trade; improves to >2:1 if scaling out 9.02 and 9.08.

Prediction summary (24h)

• Expect price to oscillate and skew higher: 8.72–9.12 range with a likely settlement near 8.95–9.05 if buyers defend 8.80.
• Catalysts to watch: Break and hold above 8.90 on growing volume; failure swings if price loses 8.74 with momentum.

Decision

• Bias: Buy the dip for a relief pop into nearby resistance. Keep risk tight given the broader downtrend.