ORDI poised for an ascending-triangle break: bulls eye 10.30 within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi-technique technical read on ORDI over the next 24 hours

1. Market snapshot and context

• Instrument: ORDI/USD
• Current price: 9.7789 (near the end of the latest 1h bar)
• Regime: Short-term bullish recovery from a 2-day pullback (9/14–9/15) after a strong advance (9/10–9/13). Price is riding back above short-term averages and sitting near a key Fibonacci pivot.
• Bias for next 24h: Mildly bullish with upside continuation favored toward 10.10–10.30 if 9.70–9.75 holds as intraday support.

2. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Daily structure: From 9/1 low at 8.2126 to 9/13 high at 10.7053, ORDI made a clear higher-high sequence. The subsequent pullback to 9.4696 (9/15 close) respected prior breakout demand near 9.45–9.50 and printed a potential double-bottom zone vs 9/10 close (9.4505). Today’s rebound to 9.78 forms a higher low versus 9/15 and restores upward bias.
• Hourly structure (last 24h): Series of higher lows: 9.37 (04:00 low), 9.55–9.57 (10:00–13:00 cluster), 9.70–9.71 (16:00–17:00 zone), with repeated probes of 9.83–9.86 capping tops. This looks like an intraday ascending triangle with horizontal resistance 9.84–9.86 and rising demand below. Break and hold above ~9.86 likely unlocks 9.95, 10.10, then 10.30.

3. Moving averages (trend metrics)

• Daily 20-SMA (approx): ~9.17. Price is above it, indicating short-term uptrend intact.
• Daily 50-SMA (approx): mid-to-high 9s given the July upswing and August weakness; price is around/above it, supporting a neutral-to-bullish intermediate trend.
• Hourly EMAs: Price trading above intraday fast MAs (e.g., 8–21 periods) through most of the NY afternoon, consistent with intraday bullish momentum. Pullbacks are finding buyers at or slightly under the hourly 21-EMA (~9.70–9.72 area).
• Takeaway: MAs skew bullish, with price above short-term trend gauges; dips likely supported initially.

4. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) estimate: ~61 (calculated from last 13 closes), which is bullish but not overbought. This suggests room to run before any momentum-based supply appears (~70+).
• Daily MACD: After peaking into 9/12–9/13, histogram contracted during the 9/14–9/15 pullback; today’s bounce likely starts a re-expansion upward. MACD line likely still above signal or curling up around the zero line—bullish continuation bias.
• Stochastics (conceptual): Rebounded from midline after two down days, now curling up—typically precedes another attempt at the recent highs if price holds supports.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20-day Bollinger Bands (approx): Midline near ~9.17; upper band likely around 10.3–10.4, lower band ~8.0. Current price is between mid and upper band, tracking an “upper half” regime. This is a constructive position for trend continuation. Not a squeeze, but volatility is moderate; room exists to test upper band again near 10.3–10.4.

6. Volume/participation analysis

• Daily volume swelled on the 9/10–9/13 push, then receded on 9/14–9/15 pullback—classic bullish volume pattern (rising volume on advances, declining on pullback). Today’s rebound occurs with respectable activity overall, consistent with dip-buying flows.
• Intraday, buyers defended pullbacks quickly (e.g., 13:00 and 16:00 hours), implying active demand below market.

7. Key horizontal levels (market profile lens)

• Resistance: 9.84–9.86 (intraday lid), 9.95–10.05 (round-number and recent micro range edge), 10.12–10.30 (daily supply shelf from 9/12–9/13), 10.45 (9/13 close region), then 10.70 (9/13 high).
• Support: 9.70–9.75 (intraday pivot; coincides with Fib 38.2%), 9.60–9.63 (hourly demand shelf), 9.45–9.50 (daily double-bottom area), 9.25–9.30 (9/15 low region).

8. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing: 9/1 low 8.2126 → 9/13 high 10.7053 (range 2.4927).
• 38.2% retracement: ~9.754 (current price sits marginally above this pivot). Holding above 9.75 typically signals a shallow correction and favors upside continuation toward prior highs.
• 50% retracement: ~9.458 (kissed/breached on 9/15 before rebounding). That test builds a constructive base.
• Extension targets from 9/15 low to 9/16 rebound imply 10.10–10.30 as first objective zone, with stretch to 10.45 if momentum accelerates.

9. Ichimoku (conceptual)

• Price above conversion baseline estimates after today’s rebound, and likely near/above the base line. Cloud from prior sessions likely thin overhead up to ~10.1–10.3, then thickens nearer 10.4–10.7. This configuration normally allows a test of the first resistance band before meeting heavier supply.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Intraday ascending triangle with flat top ~9.85: three+ taps on the ceiling increase odds of breakout on the next attempt. Volume contraction inside the pattern with quick re-bids on dips supports a breakout scenario.
• Daily double-bottom/failed breakdown near ~9.45–9.47 vs 9/10: reversal signal that often precedes a retest of the rally zone (10.1–10.4).

11. Mean reversion vs momentum

• Mean reversion: Price has reverted part-way to its 20-SMA and bounced; historical rhythm suggests mean-reversion rallies in this regime tend to press into upper bands when pullback depth is shallow (as here: 38.2% held). Favor continuation to the 10.1–10.3 band.
• Momentum: RSI>50, rising; MACD expansion likely resuming; intraday higher lows: momentum framework aligns long.

12. Statistical/ATR context

• Recent daily ATR roughly 0.55–0.85. From 9.78, a typical +0.6–0.8 day projects 10.38–10.58 on strong sessions, and 9.00–9.20 on weak ones. Given structure, the upside path to ~10.30 is well within 1x ATR; a push beyond 10.45 needs momentum confirmation.

13. Scenario probabilities (24h)

• Base case (≈60%): Hold 9.70–9.75 → break 9.85 → test 9.95–10.05 → extend to 10.10–10.30. Consolidate there.
• Bull/extension (≈15%): Clean break → 10.30 tag → momentum carry to 10.45–10.50 (upper band vicinity) before stalling.
• Bear risk (≈25%): Slip under 9.70 and fail to reclaim quickly → 9.60 test; if that fails, revisit 9.45–9.50. This would delay the upside by resetting momentum but not necessarily break the broader structure unless 9.45 fails.

14. Trade plan synthesis

• Edge: Long, based on confluence of (a) 38.2% Fib hold at ~9.75, (b) intraday ascending triangle, (c) RSI ~61 with room to run, (d) constructive volume pattern, (e) price above short-term MAs.
• Entry strategy: Prefer a limit buy on a minor pullback into the 9.70–9.75 demand band to capture favorable R:R and to align with triangle support and Fib pivot.
• Target: First objective 10.30 (daily resistance band and approximate upper Bollinger region). If momentum is strong post-breakout, discretionary runners could press for 10.45–10.50, but the 24h base target remains 10.30.
• Risk control (not required by prompt but recommended): Invalidation if hourly closes below ~9.60; harder stop below 9.56–9.58 reduces whipsaw risk while protecting capital. That sets an approximate initial R:R of ~1:2.5–3 to the 10.30 objective.

15. Timing considerations

• Watch for breakout attempts during higher-liquidity windows (US close/Asia open, then EU/US overlap). A quick wick down to 9.72–9.74 is plausible before the next leg. If price sprints through 9.86 without pulling back, a momentum buy above 9.88 with tight risk below 9.74 is the alternative.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• Expect upward bias to persist with a breakout attempt above 9.85. Base case path: 9.72–9.78 pullback → 9.95 → 10.10 → 10.30, followed by consolidation. As long as 9.70–9.75 holds on hourly closes, dips are likely to be bought. Decision: Buy.