ORDI poised for a second push: buy the 9.95 retest for a run to 10.45 within 24 hours

Comprehensive multi‑method technical analysis for ORDI (spot)

1. Market structure and trend (multi‑timeframe)

• Daily structure (June–Sept 17): ORDI based between ~$6.5–$8.9 through late Aug, then impulsed higher in early Sept to a local high at 10.71 (Sep 13). Pullback held 9.28 (Sep 15), a higher low versus prior swing lows (8.63 on Aug 31/Sep 1). Current price 10.04 is reclaiming the 10-handle after testing R2 intraday (10.17). The sequence since Sep 1 is higher lows (8.07 → 8.48 → 9.08 → 9.28) and higher highs (9.39 → 9.80 → 10.71). Uptrend intact.
• 4H/1H structure: The intraday tape shows a clean breakout above 10.05 (19:00–20:00), tagging 10.196, followed by a controlled pullback to ~10.04. The prior consolidation shelf 9.90–10.00 should act as first support; a retest toward 9.93–9.96 is likely before continuation.

2. Moving averages (trend and mean context)

• Daily 20-SMA (est.) ≈ 9.55; price (10.04) > 20-SMA → bullish. Daily 50-SMA (est.) ≈ 9.75–9.85; price is now back above or near it, improving the medium-term posture. Slope of 20-SMA turned up in early Sept; 20 > 50 cross is either occurring or imminent.
• EMAs: Daily 9-EMA likely ~9.85–9.95 and curling up; price above 9-EMA and 21-EMA → momentum regime bullish. On 1H, 9-EMA > 21-EMA since the New York session push, consistent with intraday uptrend.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily (est.): mid-high 50s to low 60s after rebounding from early Sept surge and mid-month pullback. This is constructive (momentum positive but not overbought), leaving room for an extension toward 10.3–10.5 within 24h.
• 1H RSI printed an overbought spike on the breakout to 10.20, then cooled on the pullback—classic bull flag reset. No pronounced bearish divergence on higher timeframe; minor 1H micro-divergence argues for a shallow dip into 9.95 before another attempt up.
• MACD Daily: Histogram turned positive in early September; signal line crossed up and remains above zero or near the cross. The slope is modestly positive—momentum supportive.
• Stochastics: Daily middling, 1H rolling down from overbought—supports a buy-the-dip plan into 9.93–9.97 rather than chasing.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) Daily (est.): ~0.75–0.85. A typical 24h move from 10.04 implies a feasible range roughly 9.30–10.80 without trend shocks. That frames a realistic take-profit near 10.40–10.50.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily (est.): Middle band ~9.55; upper ~10.70; lower ~8.40–8.50. Price is above the middle band and below the upper band—bullish but not stretched. Bandwidth has expanded versus late August (breakout regime), then stabilized—healthy continuation backdrop.

5. Ichimoku Cloud (daily, approximate)

• Price above cloud; Tenkan (conversion) likely ~9.9–10.0; Kijun (base) ~9.7–9.8. Span A > Span B with a thin, rising cloud for the next few sessions. Being above Tenkan/Kijun with a rising cloud favors buying pullbacks toward Tenkan/Kijun confluence (9.85–10.00/9.75–9.80 zones).

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing low 8.066 (Sep 1) to swing high 10.705 (Sep 13): range 2.639. • 38.2% retrace: 9.697; 50%: 9.386; 61.8%: 9.074. • The pullback low at 9.278 (Sep 15) landed between 50% and 61.8% and then reversed—textbook bullish retracement.
• Fib extensions from the Sep 15 low to Sep 17 intraday high project: • 1.0x retest: 10.20 (already tagged), 1.272x: ~10.48, 1.618x: ~10.86. The 1.272 (~10.47–10.49) aligns with daily R3 (pivot), making 10.45–10.50 a high-probability magnet within 24h if momentum resumes.

7. Classical chart patterns and price action

• Post-breakout bull flag: After the run to 10.71, ORDI formed a descending flag into 9.28. Break back above 9.80–10.00 confirms a continuation setup. Today’s spike to 10.20 is the first “attempt”; a small handle/pullback often precedes the next leg.
• Candlesticks: Recent daily candles show a series of higher closes off 9.28 with no aggressive upper wicks near 10.05–10.20 today—suggests supply is thinning until 10.30–10.45.

8. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Daily volume rose on the Sept 10 impulse and remains adequate on up days. Today’s 1H bars show participation expansion during the breakout hour (19:00–20:00) and controlled volume on the pullback—bullish volume asymmetry.
• OBV (qualitative): rising since Sep 1; no distribution signature yet.

9. Pivot points (using Sep 16 H/L/C)

• P ≈ 9.673; R1 ≈ 9.979; R2 ≈ 10.167; R3 ≈ 10.473; S1 ≈ 9.485; S2 ≈ 9.179.
• Price hit R2 (10.17) today and pulled back. In trending sessions, R3 (≈10.47) is a reasonable stretch target for the next thrust. S1 (9.49) is well below the intraday structure—downside room exists if 9.85 fails, but base case favors holding above 9.90.

10. VWAP and mean‑reversion (intraday)

• Session VWAP (est.) resides near 9.90–9.95 after the afternoon push. Current price at 10.04 is modestly above VWAP; a tag/retest into 9.93–9.97 is a prime risk‑defined long entry area for continuation toward R3.

11. Wyckoff/Order‑flow lens

• Re‑accumulation range 9.3–10.3 with a Sign of Strength (SoS) to 10.20 and a likely Last Point of Support (LPS) around 9.90–9.97. If LPS holds, the Markup phase targets 10.40–10.50 next.

12. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 8.07 → 9.80; Wave 2: to 9.28; Wave 3 underway: 9.28 → 10.20 (i), pullback to ~10.00 (ii), projected iii → 10.45–10.50 before a minor (iv) and possibly a marginal new high (v) if momentum persists. Within 24h, iii completion into 10.45 is plausible.

13. Risk and invalidation

• Primary support: 9.93–9.97 (VWAP/1H EMA cluster) then 9.75–9.80 (daily Kijun/50SMA zone). Invalidation for the immediate long idea occurs on hourly closes below ~9.75 (structure breaks; momentum likely reverts to 9.55 or S1 9.49).

14. Scenario probabilities (next 24h)

• Bullish continuation (base case ~60%): Hold 9.90–10.00, push to 10.30, then 10.45 (R3/Fib 1.272).
• Range chop (~25%): 9.85–10.15 oscillation as the market absorbs supply; upside attempt deferred.
• Bearish fade (~15%): Lose 9.85 and test 9.70; deeper risk toward 9.55 if broader crypto weakens.

15. Synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence to the upside: higher‑low structure, price > 20/50-day MAs, RSI positive without overbought, MACD positive, BB middle band reclaimed, Ichimoku support, R3/Fib 1.272 cluster at 10.45–10.50, and VWAP/EMA support around 9.95.
• Execution: Prefer a limit buy on a pullback into 9.94–9.97 (around session VWAP/1H EMA) rather than chasing. Target 10.45 (daily R3 / Fib 1.272). A prudent stop (not asked for fields) would sit just below 9.78 (hourly structure/Kijun) to preserve a favorable R:R.

16. Forecast (24h)

• Expect a shallow dip to 9.95 ± 0.03 followed by a grind higher toward 10.30 and a probe of 10.45. If 9.90 fails decisively, anticipate a stall to 9.75–9.80 before any renewed attempt.