ORDI poised to extend its pivot reclaim — aiming for 10.5–10.62 in the next 24 hours

Overview and context

• Instrument: ORDI/USD
• Current price: 10.1307 (as of 2025-09-20 20:55 UTC)
• Timeframes analyzed: Daily (Jun 23 → Sep 20) and Hourly (Sep 19 → Sep 20)
• Bias (24h): Moderately bullish with buy-the-dip opportunity; expect a test of 10.40–10.62 if intraday support holds at 10.00–10.06

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily structure: Since the Sep 1 low (8.2126), ORDI has formed higher lows (≈8.21 → 9.20 → 9.47/9.59 → 9.75) and higher highs (10.45 → 10.67). The pullback on Sep 19 (close 9.8445; low 9.7488) held above the 38.2% retracement of the Sep advance (≈9.73), maintaining the uptrend.
• Intraday (hourly): Today built a staircase of higher lows: ~9.91 → 9.95 → 10.00 → 10.05, with a local push to 10.18–10.24. Price is trading above the daily pivot and VWAP, showing intraday accumulation.
• Conclusion: Bullish market structure in both daily and intraday frames with shallow pullbacks—favors continuation toward 10.40–10.62 near-term.

2. Moving averages (trend confirmation)

• 20-D SMA (approx): ~9.52 (explicitly averaged from the last 20 closes). Price (10.13) > 20-D SMA by ~6.4% → bullish.
• 50-D SMA (approx): ~9.8–9.9 (given Jul–Sep tape). Price above 50-D as well → medium-term uptrend intact.
• Slope: 20-D has turned up decisively since Sep 10; likely crossing above 50-D (tactical “golden cross” on shorter lookback) → additional trend confirmation.
• 200-D SMA: Not fully computable from provided window; qualitatively, price action since late June shows higher range—likely below or near current price; the trend bias from the visible series is positive.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): mid-to-high 50s, supported by two-leg advance since Sep 1 and a minor reset on Sep 19. This is a healthy, not-overbought state.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily: Positive MACD line with a small, possibly rising histogram after the Sep 19 dip—a constructive continuation setup.
• Stochastic %K/%D daily: Likely in the 55–70 range, curling up—consistent with bullish continuation while avoiding extreme overbought.
• Hourly RSI: Firmly above 50 for most of the session, with mild divergences absent—supports further upside attempts.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (approx): 0.70–0.90, implying a plausible 24h move of ±0.7–1.0. A 10.06 → 10.62 objective (+0.56) sits well within 1x ATR—achievable in the next session.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Midline ≈ 20-SMA ≈ 9.52; Upper band ~10.9–11.1; Lower band ~7.9–8.1 (based on recent dispersions). Price is above midline with room to the upper band—momentum-friendly without band stress.
• Keltner Channels (20EMA, ATR-based): Price above mid and approaching upper channel—often precedes trend continuation barring sharp reversals.

5. Support/resistance and levels confluence

• Key supports: 10.06–10.08 (daily pivot/VWAP zone), 9.95–10.00 (intraday shelf), 9.75 (Sep 19 low & 38.2% retracement of the Sep 1 → Sep 18 leg), 9.52 (20-D SMA & S1 proximity), 9.45–9.47 (Sep 10/15 zone).
• Key resistances: 10.18–10.24 (intraday supply), 10.40–10.41 (R1), 10.50–10.56 (0.618 retrace of July high → Sep low, plus local supply), 10.67–10.71 (recent swing high cluster), 10.96 (R2), 11.65 (major from Jul 27), 12.05 (Jul 28).
• Confluence cluster for upside target: 10.50–10.62 (Fib 61.8% from 11.968→8.2126 = ~10.56; prior supply; within daily R1→R2 path). This is a magnet zone for tests if trend continues.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Sep 1 low (8.2126) → Sep 18 high (10.6666):
  • 38.2%: ~9.73 (held on Sep 19)
  • 50%: ~9.44
  • 61.8%: ~9.15 Bounce from 38.2% is classic continuation.
• July high (11.968) → Sep 1 low (8.2126):
  • 50%: ~10.09 (price reclaimed and is holding)
  • 61.8%: ~10.56 (primary upside objective in the next 24h)

7. Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Price above Tenkan (~9.99) and Kijun (~9.49) → bullish.
• Senkou Span A (~9.74) and Span B (~10.06) project a thin cloud around price; with price now slightly above cloud top, a sustained hold above ~10.06 strengthens the bullish case and reduces whipsaw risk.
• Lagging span likely above price action—another positive.

8. Volume, flow, and breadth

• Volume spikes aligned with up days (Sep 10, 12–13, 17–18) indicate accumulation on strength; pullback volumes on Sep 19 were lighter than the two prior up days—healthy digestion.
• OBV (qualitative): Higher since Sep 10; no distribution pattern evident.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Positive bias expected given price holding above VWAP/Pivot; intraday prints show net buying on upticks near the 10.00–10.10 zone.
• Hourly VWAP: Price > VWAP through much of the session—supports long bias and suggests dip demand near VWAP re-tests.

9. Pivots and intraday map (Classic pivots from Sep 19 H/L/C)

• P = 10.075; R1 = 10.401; S1 = 9.517; R2 = 10.959; S2 = 9.191.
• Price reclaimed and held above P for most of today. Typical progression is P → R1 test if the session maintains higher lows, which fits our expectation for a push toward 10.40 first, then 10.50–10.62 if momentum persists.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle/box: Base ~9.95–10.00, topside supply near 10.20–10.24 (intraday) and 10.40–10.56 (daily). A decisive break above 10.24 should accelerate toward R1 (10.40) and the 10.50–10.62 band.
• Flag/coil after Sep 17–18 impulse: The pullback to 9.75 and grind back above 10.00 resembles a bull flag resolution. Breakouts from such coils often target prior swing resistance zones.
• Candlesticks: Recent daily candles are constructive (higher closes on Sep 12–13, strong Sep 17–18, controlled retrace Sep 19). Today’s intraday bodies are small but net positive—indicative of accumulation rather than distribution.

11. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: Sep 1 → Sep 10 advance; Wave 2: Sep 10 → Sep 11 shallow dip; Wave 3: Sep 11 → Sep 18 impulse; Wave 4: Sep 18 → Sep 19 pullback to ~38.2%; Wave 5 underway: targeting 10.50–10.70 (typical modest new high or equality to Wave 1 measured from Wave 4 low). Fits our tactical target band.

12. ADX/Trend strength (qualitative)

• ADX likely mid-20s after the recent impulse—trend strengthening but not stretched. Combined with rising +DI, trend continuation is favored barring a close back below 9.95.

13. Risk management and scenarios (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Hold 10.00–10.06, break 10.24, tag 10.40 (R1), extend to 10.50–10.62 (Fib 61.8% cluster). Close near upper half of the day’s range.
• Range case (25%): Chop 10.00–10.24 without sustained break; end near 10.10–10.20.
• Bear case (15%): Lose 9.96/10.00, then 9.75 (38.2% Fib). A daily close below 9.75 opens 9.52 (20-D SMA/S1 proximity). This invalidates the near-term long setup.

14. Trade plan (tactical)

• Rationale: Price above 20/50-D MAs, above daily pivot and VWAP, pullback held 38.2% of the Sep leg, momentum recovering, and clear upside magnet at 10.50–10.62.
• Entry (limit buy): 10.06 (buy the dip into pivot/VWAP confluence; also aligns with Senkou Span B ≈10.06)
• Alternative entry (momentum): Add/confirm above 10.24 break with volume.
• Target (TP): 10.62 (Fib 61.8% of the larger downswing; sits between R1 and R2; under recent swing highs 10.67–10.71)
• Protective stop (discipline, suggested): 9.74 (below Sep 19 low and 38.2% Fib of Sep leg). From 10.06, risk ≈0.32 vs reward ≈0.56 → R:R ≈1.75.

15. What invalidates the setup

• Intraday rejection leading to hourly close <9.96 and daily close <9.75 would negate the long bias and shift focus to 9.52 and 9.45 supports.

Bottom line

• The multi-timeframe evidence (trend, momentum, pivot/Fib confluence, intraday VWAP strength) supports a buy-the-dip approach with a 24h target toward 10.50–10.62. Risk is clearly defined below 9.74. Expect initial friction at 10.24 and 10.40; strength through those levels likely unlocks 10.50–10.62 within one ATR.

Prediction (24h)

• Likely path: Pullback toward 10.02–10.08, then push to 10.24 → 10.40 → 10.50–10.62. Probability-weighted direction: Up.