ORDI: Rejection at the 20-day Sets Up a Liquidity Hunt Toward 4.20–4.30

Executive summary and 24h view

• Bias next 24h: Bearish to mildly bearish. Expect a drift toward 4.30–4.25 with risk of a quick liquidity sweep into 4.20–4.18, followed by a modest intraday bounce. Probability-weighted close near 4.32–4.40.
• Rationale: Price is below the 20-day SMA and well below the 50-day SMA; the post–Nov 8 distribution high rolled into a markdown with lower highs/lows. Yesterday’s pop to 4.666 (~SMA20) was faded; today trades back below the daily pivot, with momentum oscillators curling down and volume/flow metrics still net negative. The bounce failed far below the 38.2% retracement of the Nov 8→Nov 17 leg, signaling a weak counter-trend rally.

Market structure and trend diagnostics

• Structure: Since the Nov 8 blow-off (H≈7.385 on extreme volume), price has carved a series of lower highs (5.996 on Nov 7 spike, then 5.525, 5.306, 5.213, 5.185, 4.941, 4.744, 4.666) and lower lows (down to 4.296 on Nov 17). Yesterday’s lower high at 4.666 under the 4.744 pivot confirms a descending channel/bear flag failure.
• Regime check: Long-term (50d) trend down; intermediate (20d) trend flat-to-down; short-term (5–10d) trend down. The sequence 5SMA < 10SMA < 20SMA < 50SMA aligns bearishly.

Moving averages and crossovers

• 5-day SMA ≈ 4.472 (avg of last 5 closes). Current price ≈ 4.447 is below 5SMA → immediate bearish.
• 10-day SMA ≈ 4.70; price below → bearish.
• 20-day SMA ≈ 4.66; price below → bearish. Yesterday’s close at 4.666 tagged the 20SMA and was rejected.
• 50-day SMA materially higher (prior cluster 7–9), confirming a dominant downtrend. No bullish cross in sight.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14): Approx mid-50s yesterday, slipping toward ~50–52 with today’s pullback. Neutral-to-weak; no oversold signal to force a reversal.
• Stochastics (14,3,3): Rolled over from mid-zone after a shallow rally; cross down below 50 favors further drift lower before oversold conditions develop.
• MACD(12,26,9): After a slight histogram improvement on the bounce, momentum is stalling; with price back under the 10/20 EMAs, expect histogram to tick back negative and MACD remain sub-zero → continuation bias.

Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands(20,2): Middle band ≈ 4.66. Current price sits below the midline, in the lower half of the envelope; room to test the lower band region. Estimated band width suggests lower band in the 3.8–4.0 area; within 24h, a move toward 4.30–4.20 is plausible without breaching the lower band.
• ATR(14): ~0.50–0.55. A 0.20–0.30 downside swing (≈0.4–0.6 ATR) fits the daily noise profile, supporting a 4.22–4.30 target zone intraday.

Volume and flow

• Distribution evidence: Nov 7–8 saw massive volume on spikes that closed weak (especially Nov 8), typical of distribution. Subsequent down days have been accompanied by heavier volume than up days. The OBV slope since Nov 8 is down → supply in control.
• MFI: Likely in 35–45 range given weak price/volume; not at capitulation yet.
• Anchored VWAP (from Nov 7 event): With the bulk of high-volume prints between ~5–6.5, anchored VWAP sits well above current price, reinforcing overhead supply.

Ichimoku (daily)

• Price below Tenkan (~4.7) and Kijun (~5.1) and well below a likely bearish Kumo; Chikou span below price–cloud. Classic bearish Ichimoku stack; rallies into Tenkan are sells; rejection near 4.66 fits this.

Fibonacci and classic pivots

• Fib retracement of Nov 8 high (7.385) to Nov 17 low (4.296):
  • 38.2% = 5.476, 50% = 5.840, 61.8% = 6.204. The bounce stalled at 4.666, far below 38.2% → weak counter-trend strength.
• Daily pivots from Nov 18 (H=4.745, L=4.184, C=4.666):
  • Pivot P ≈ 4.532; S1 ≈ 4.318; R1 ≈ 4.879; S2 ≈ 3.971; R2 ≈ 5.093.
  • Current trading below P and above S1 → downside bias with magnet at S1 (4.32). A typical path is test S1, brief reaction, possibly probe S2 on stop runs.

Pattern recognition and price action

• Bear flag/descending channel: The grind up to 4.666 into the 20SMA resembled a flag retest; today’s fade confirms continuation.
• Liquidity map:
  • Resting liquidity below 4.396 and the 4.296 swing-low (Nov 17). Expect a hunt toward 4.30–4.25; if flushed, a quick tag of 4.20–4.18 is possible before mean-reversion.
  • Overhead supply: 4.53 pivot, 4.59–4.74 resistance band, then 4.94/5.18 supply.
• Candles: Yesterday closed strong but with rejection of higher retracement levels; today’s red session flipping below the pivot is a typical “one-day pop sold” in a downtrend.

Directional strength (ADX) and breadth

• ADX(14): ~20–25 with -DI > +DI → established but not explosive downtrend. Supports grind lower rather than sharp crash.

Statistical/quant views

• Z-score vs SMA20: z ≈ (4.447 − 4.657)/0.45 ≈ −0.47 → mildly below mean; not stretched → room to drift further without triggering strong reversion pressure.
• Linear regression slope (last 14 closes): Negative; residual today leans slightly negative after failing the regression midline.

Wyckoff/Elliott color

• Wyckoff: Post-distribution markdown in progress. No clear accumulation signatures (no spring + SOS). Expect further testing of supports.
• Elliott (heuristic): The move off 7.385 appears in a 5-wave-down sequence; the push to 4.666 likely a wave-4 type lower high, setting up a wave-5 test of/under 4.296.

Confluence summary

• Bearish confluence: Below 10/20/50 SMAs; rejection at SMA20 and daily pivot; OBV down; MACD likely to roll; Stoch down; weak Fib bounce (<38.2%); anchored VWAP overhead; ADX supports trend continuation; liquidity rests below.
• Counterpoints: RSI not oversold; ATR moderate, so expect measured rather than violent moves; potential for intraday bounces from S1.

24-hour path projection

• Base case (55%): Drift lower to 4.30–4.25, brief liquidity sweep toward 4.20, rebound into 4.34–4.40 by end of window.
• Bearish extension (25%): Break 4.20 on momentum to test 4.06–3.98 (prior cluster), close sub-4.25.
• Bullish surprise (20%): Reclaim pivot 4.53, squeeze to 4.59–4.65 (SMA20/Tenkan), where supply likely rejects; odds of sustained hold above 4.66 within 24h are low.

Trade plan (short-term tactical)

• Direction: Short bias into supports.
• Entry: Prefer fills near current with allowance for a minor bounce; optimal tactical entry 4.46 (around current), or scale 4.46–4.52 if a pop occurs.
• Target (take profit): 4.22 (near liquidity pocket just under S1 and above the 4.18 shelf), capturing ~5.4% from 4.46.
• Invalidation (context only): Sustained reclaim and 1h close above 4.59–4.66 (pivot+SMA20/Tenkan confluence) would weaken the short thesis for this 24h window.

Bottom line

• The failed test of the 20-day average, sub-pivot trade, negative flow, and weak retracement structure favor a continuation lower toward 4.30–4.20 in the next 24 hours. A tactical short opened near 4.46 targeting 4.22 aligns with the prevailing trend and volatility profile.