ORDI at Resistance: Sell the Rally into 3.92 Before a Push Toward the Mid‑3.70s

Summary view

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bearish. Expect a fade on strength toward 3.90–3.95, then a push down into 3.70–3.75, with risk of an extension to ~3.64 if liquidity thins.
• Plan: Sell the rally into 3.91–3.95 (limit), targeting 3.68–3.72. Invalidation on sustained reclaim >4.06.

1. Market structure and trend

• Daily market structure: Since mid‑September, ORDI has transitioned from a 10–10.7 area to persistent lower highs/lows. Post 11/7–11/8 spike (to ~7.38) price failed near the 38.2–50% retracement of the larger downswing, then resumed lower. The last week shows a decisive break below the 4.36–4.40 pivot with follow‑through to 3.84; 11/22 printed a new swing low near 3.69. This is classic bearish continuation structure.
• Intraday (hourly) structure: Sideways-to-down between 3.81 and 3.90 with a sequence of marginal lower highs. Attempts to lift to 3.90–3.92 are met with supply. Micro bounces are corrective within the broader downtrend.
• Key levels • Resistance: 3.90–3.95 (intraday supply and prior hourly rejection), 4.06 (minor daily pivot), 4.36 (broken daily support turned resistance), 4.66–4.74 (supply shelf). • Support: 3.78–3.81 (intraday shelf), 3.70–3.72 (recent swing low region), 3.62–3.64 (measured move/ATR extension), 3.50–3.58 (deeper extension), 3.44 (legacy).

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily 20‑SMA ≈ 4.52 (est. from last 20 closes ~4.52). Price = 3.86 is well below 20‑SMA → bearish. 50‑SMA is likely far above price (prior regime ~7–9), reinforcing downside bias.
• Daily EMAs: Fast EMAs (8/12/21) would be stacked bearishly under the 50‑EMA given the persistent down move. No evidence of a bullish EMA cross.
• Hourly EMAs: Price oscillates around the 20/50‑EMA with failures on tests higher; the 200‑EMA (hourly) is likely above 3.95–4.05, a common mean‑reversion cap in bear phases. Bias: sell rallies to the 20/50/200 EMA cluster.

3. Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Estimated mid‑30s to upper‑30s—bearish but not deeply oversold (<30). This supports a near‑term bounce-to‑fade dynamic rather than an immediate capitulation or V‑reversal.
• Hourly RSI: Hovering mid‑40s to low‑50s on bounces; bear market oscillation regime (RSI tops out sub‑60, bottoms 25–35). Expect rallies to stall before RSI >60.
• MACD (daily): Below zero with a shallow histogram—momentum negative but not accelerating; room for brief mean‑revert pops that tend to be sold.
• MACD (hourly): Recently crossed down from a weak positive—supports fading into resistance.
• Stochastics: Intraday stoch rolls over near neutral after brief upticks—consistent with range highs being sold.

4. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Midline ~4.52, lower band roughly ~3.80–3.85. Price hugging the lower band implies trend persistence; mean reversion attempts usually stall beneath the midline. A tag near the band with no expansion higher often precedes another push lower.
• ATR(14) daily: Roughly 0.35–0.45 in recent sessions. From 3.90, one ATR lower targets 3.45–3.55; half‑ATR gives 3.70–3.75. A full ATR print is possible in thin weekend liquidity, but base case is half‑ATR move.
• Hourly band width is relatively narrow (~0.07–0.10), signaling compression. In a downtrend, compressions commonly resolve lower.

5. Volume/flow

• Volume regime: Massive spikes on 11/7–11/8, followed by a distributional fade. Recent down legs (11/20–11/21) saw heavier volume than the up legs—classic distribution. Latest hourly tape shows light volume on minor upticks and heavier prints on pushes down—sellers in control.
• OBV (qualitative): Sloping lower since early November, confirming price trend.
• Liquidity context: Weekends often produce stop sweeps. Expect attempts to stop‑hunt above 3.90–3.95 before a lower‑trend resumption into 3.70s.

6. Pattern analysis

• Bear flag/pennant: After the 4.79 → 3.84 flagpole, price carved a tight consolidation and broke lower. Measured move projects toward ~2.9–3.2 over a longer horizon; near‑term implication is continued selling pressure and rallies sold.
• Micro double bottom potential 3.70–3.72: If formed, could yield a bounce, but with the trend down, probability favors a brief reaction before rolling over.
• Candle behavior: Small‑body candles with upper wicks near 3.90–3.92 suggest supply absorption there.

7. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing: 10.70 (Sept high area) to 3.69 (11/22 low) → retracements at 23.6% ~5.35, 38.2% ~6.37, 50% ~7.20, 61.8% ~8.02. The failure beneath 38.2% in November reinforces the dominant bearish structure.
• Local swing: 4.79 → 3.69 range (Δ = 1.10). 38.2%/50% pullbacks sit ~4.11/~4.24; rallies so far are stalling earlier (3.90–3.95), signaling sellers stepping in even before typical fib zones—additional bearish tell.

8. Ichimoku

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun; Lagging span under price and cloud—full bearish stack. Kijun around ~4.5–4.7 likely acts as a magnet only after deeper extensions; near term, cloud resistance remains overhead.
• Hourly: Price below a thin, downward‑sloping cloud; frequent rejections when price tags the cloud base—a sign to sell into cloud touches.

9. Elliott/Wyckoff framing

• Elliott: Counting a 5‑wave downswing from early November. Wave 3 likely printed into 3.84/3.69 zone, current action looks like a shallow Wave 4 (3.90–3.95), with a Wave 5 extension into 3.60–3.65 plausible over the next 24–48h.
• Wyckoff: Distribution after upthrust on 11/7–11/8; current is a markdown with minor pauses (no accumulation signatures yet). Supply is still dominant.

10. Confluence and scenarios next 24h

• Confluences for short • Price below daily MA stack and lower Bollinger band proximity. • Repeated rejection in 3.90–3.95 supply. • Hourly momentum rolling over from neutral; light‑volume bounces. • ATR/volatility supports a 0.20–0.30 downside swing within 24h, putting 3.62–3.72 in play if a rally‑to‑fade entry is achieved.
• Base scenario (≈60%): Early probe to 3.91–3.95, failure, slide to 3.72 ±0.03; if stops cascade, extension to 3.64–3.68.
• Range scenario (≈25%): 3.82–3.95 chop, closes near 3.85–3.90.
• Squeeze scenario (≈15%): Sweep above 3.95 to 4.00–4.06, then either fail back into range or, if 4.06 holds, a short‑lived push to 4.20; this is the invalidation zone for near‑term shorts.

11. Trade construction

• Entry: Prefer patience; place a limit sell 3.91–3.95. That aligns with intraday supply, hourly EMA cluster, and repeated wicks.
• Target: First take‑profit 3.72 (recent floor); stretch target 3.68–3.64 if momentum picks up.
• Invalidation: Sustained reclaim >4.06 (hourly close and hold) invalidates the immediate short idea.
• Risk context: Weekend thin books can produce wicks; sizing accordingly and using a protective stop is prudent (suggested stop ~4.08–4.12). R:R from 3.92 → 3.68 with stop 4.08 is ~1:1.5.

Conclusion Given the multi‑timeframe downtrend, resistance overhead at 3.90–3.95, momentum behavior, and volume distribution, the higher‑probability play over the next 24 hours is to Sell a rally into 3.91–3.95, targeting a move back to 3.72 with potential extension to the mid‑3.60s if liquidity thins or stops cascade.