Short the rip: ORDI losing 4.00 turns 3.60 into a sell zone with 3.33 in sight

Context and market state

• Instrument: ORDI vs USD
• Timestamp reference: 2025-12-01 close proximity, current price 3.5792
• Trading hours: crypto 24-7, expect continuous flow and liquidity pockets around round numbers

Summary view

• Primary trend daily: Downtrend since September highs near 10, with a major regime shift on 10 Oct and persistent lower highs and lower lows
• Intermediate structure: November balance between roughly 3.80 to 4.30 broke lower today, confirming continuation
• Intraday structure 1h: Lower-high cadence, failed pushes above 3.60 and rejection near 3.60 to 3.60s, bounce from 3.448 low but recovery capped below 3.62
• Bias next 24h: Sell rallies, fade into 3.60 to 3.64 with downside extension toward 3.35 to 3.33 if 3.45 gives way

Multi-timeframe trend diagnostics

• Daily price action
  • Sept 3 to Sept 19: markup from 8.6 to ~10.7, then exhaustion
  • Oct 10: disorderly day, wide range and regime reset. Post-event, a series of lower highs around 5.5, then 5.3, then 4.9 to 4.6 into mid-Nov
  • Nov 21 to Nov 30: balance around 3.80 to 4.15 with shrinking momentum, then breakdown today to 3.58 close after printing 3.448 intraday
  • Structure: classic distribution then breakdown. The failed holds above 4.00 convert that zone into overhead supply
• Hourly and intraday 5 to 60m
  • Session range today: 3.448 to 3.601. Late day recovery stalled right at prior intraday supply 3.58 to 3.60
  • Market structure: lower highs around 3.60 to 3.60s and lower lows, with a modest short-covering bounce into the close. This is typical of bear trend days that close mid-range and continue lower next session

Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily EMAs and SMAs qualitative
  • 20D EMA tracking near low 4s after weeks around 4 to 5. Price is decisively below. This is a bearish filter
  • 50D SMA estimated high 5s to low 6s after the September high and October crash. Price far below. Bearish medium-term regime
  • 200D SMA likely much higher than 6 given earlier prices. Strongly bearish secular filter
  • Alignment: fast MA below slow MA, price below all MAs. Persistent downtrend regime
• Hourly EMAs
  • 8 to 21 EMA ribbon rolled over. Price oscillated below the ribbon most of the day. Late bounce tapped the ribbon top near 3.58 to 3.60 and stalled. Favors sell the rip

Momentum oscillators

• RSI 14 daily qualitative
  • After the November balance, RSI likely low to mid 30s. Oversold drift rather than capitulation. In trending markets, RSI can remain sub-50 for extended periods while price continues to grind down
• RSI 14 hourly
  • Rebounded from sub-30 early to mid 40s into the close, with failure to clear 50. This often precedes another leg down after a relief bounce
• MACD daily
  • Below zero and below signal, histogram negative and expanding following the breakdown from 4.0. Bearish continuation signal
• MACD hourly
  • Histogram turned less negative into the close but remains below zero. Typical of a countertrend bounce in a bear move

Volatility and range

• ATR daily qualitative
  • Expanding since the breakdown, with today’s true range roughly 0.55 from recent local 4.10 to 3.55 close over the last two sessions and 0.15 intraday today. Expanding ATR during a downside break supports trend continuation
• Bollinger Bands daily
  • Price riding or tagging the lower band with bands widening. This is trend-with-expansion rather than a simple mean reversion setup. Lower band rides tend to persist
• Bollinger Bands hourly
  • Bounce from lower band to middle band into close. Rejection likely near upper band 3.60 to 3.63 if tested, with risk of rolling back to lower band near 3.48

Ichimoku diagnostics

• Daily cloud
  • Price below cloud, Tenkan below Kijun, Chikou span below price and below cloud. Bearish across all components
• Hourly cloud
  • Price below a thin, downward-sloping cloud. Late attempt testing cloud base aligns with 3.60s and likely rejection. Cloud forward span remains red, signaling bearish continuation

Volume and flow

• Distribution analysis
  • November showed heavy rotation 3.9 to 4.2 with increasing participation on down days. This indicates supply absorption above 4 and new acceptance lower
  • Today’s breakdown below 4 brought volume but no follow-through recovery. Sellers defended 3.60 to 3.60s repeatedly
• OBV qualitative
  • Likely trending down since early November. No bullish divergence versus price lows visible from the provided cadence

Support and resistance map

• Immediate resistance
  • 3.60 to 3.63: intraday supply and hourly EMA cluster, plus upper BB on the 1h
  • 3.68 to 3.72: minor pivot and prior failed bounces. 38.2 percent fib of the drop from 4.146 to 3.448 sits near 3.714
  • 3.95 to 4.05: broken balance floor and now major overhead supply. Unlikely to be reclaimed in the next 24 hours without a strong catalyst
• Immediate support
  • 3.48 to 3.45: today’s spike low region with visible dip buying. A clean break likely accelerates to 3.36 to 3.33
  • 3.33: measured move target from the 4.00 to 3.65 balance break, and a round-number magnet just below recent range
  • 3.20 to 3.10: extension target on a volatility expansion day if 3.33 gives way

Fibonacci confluence

• Swing Nov 26 high 4.146 to today’s low 3.448
  • 23.6 percent 3.615 aligns with intraday stall area
  • 38.2 percent 3.714 and 50 percent 3.797 cluster overhead and present attractive sell zones on deeper bounces
• Intraday swing 3.448 to 3.601
  • Midline around 3.525 and 61.8 percent around 3.557 were reclaimed but failed to push beyond 3.60, reinforcing sell-the-rip bias

Pattern recognition

• Bear flag and breakdown
  • Multi-session rectangle around 3.95 to 4.15 broke lower. Measured move equal to height 0.20 to 0.25 yields 3.70 to 3.90 preliminary target, already reached, next extension projects to 3.33 to 3.30
• Intraday falling wedge
  • Micro wedge break from 3.448 to 3.58 achieved. Typical amplitude exhausted on first bounce. Next leg likely to retest wedge origin or break lower

VWAP and mean reversion

• Session VWAP estimated near mid 3.54 to 3.56 with price into close slightly above. Late-day closes above VWAP during a downtrend are frequently distributional rather than accumulative when headwinds remain. Expect reversion down to or through VWAP on the next impulse

Risk and positioning framework

• Trend followers will prefer shorts below 3.95 and below 3.60 supply. Momentum shorts can lean into 3.60 to 3.64 with well-defined invalidation above 3.72 to 3.75
• Mean reversion longs are lower probability given regime and failure to reclaim 3.70. If attempted, they should be tactical only toward 3.60 and quickly reduced
• Options proxy not applicable here but skew would likely be put-heavy on such breakdowns, further weighing spot as dealers hedge

Scenario analysis next 24 hours

• Base case 60 percent: Early bounce probes 3.60 to 3.64, sellers defend, price rolls over to test 3.50, breaks to 3.40 to 3.35. Settlement around 3.38 to 3.45
• Bear extension 25 percent: No meaningful bounce, immediate drive under 3.45, flush to 3.30 to 3.25 as stops trigger below today’s low
• Squeeze 15 percent: Quick pop through 3.64 and test of 3.71 to 3.74 fib cluster, then stalls under 3.80 and fades back toward 3.55 by end of window

Indicator consensus and conviction

• Trend filters, Ichimoku, MACD daily, and broken market structure all align bearish
• RSI and hourly oscillators show room for a shallow bounce but not a regime shift
• Bollinger band expansion and ATR support continuation rather than a full mean reversion day
• Conclusion: Fade strength. Short preferred against 3.60 to 3.64 with targets in mid 3.30s

Execution plan and levels

• Optimal entry zone for short: 3.60 to 3.64 supply pocket where hourly EMA ribbon, BB upper band, and fib 23.6 percent 3.615 cluster
• Profit-taking target: 3.33, just above confluence of measured move and round-number liquidity. Expect responsive bids there
• Invalidation reference for risk control: a sustained break above 3.72 would threaten the trade thesis by reclaiming the 38.2 percent retrace band and prior minor swing highs

Risk notes

• Liquidity pockets around 3.45 and 3.33 can produce sharp wicks. Use limit orders for entry and staggered takes if managing actively
• No significant fundamental catalyst noted. If unexpected news hits, volatility could expand beyond projections

Bottom line

• Direction next 24h: Down to sideways with bearish tilt. Sell rallies
• Expected range: 3.30 to 3.66 with a skew toward the lower half
• Strategy: Short into 3.62 ± 0.02, target 3.33, manage risk above 3.72

This is market analysis and not financial advice. Size positions appropriately and review risk before execution.