ORDI’s Breakout, Retest, and Go: Lining Up a 4.36 Target Within 24 Hours

Comprehensive multi‑framework technical assessment for ORDI (24h outlook)

1. Market context and structure

• Regime shift: After a persistent multi‑week downtrend from early Oct highs (~10+) into late Nov lows (~3.57 on Dec 1), ORDI printed a strong bullish impulse on Dec 2 from ~3.56 to 4.29 (intraday high), breaking a short‑term descending structure and reclaiming the 4‑handle. This is the first decisive higher‑high versus the Nov 27 swing high (~4.255–4.295), signalling a potential inflection from distribution to early accumulation on the lower timeframes.
• Higher‑high/higher‑low sequence (hourly): HLs progressed through the session (3.56 → ~3.59 → ~3.63 → breakout) culminating in HH to 4.26–4.29, then a controlled pullback to 4.04–4.10. Price is now consolidating above prior resistance (~4.05), suggesting a classic breakout‑retest behavior.
• Key levels from the daily tape: • Resistance: 4.26–4.30 (today’s H; also Nov 27 H 4.255 / Nov 28 H 4.296), 4.36 (Nov 20 close zone), 4.48–4.52 (mid‑Nov supply), stretch 4.74 (Nov 12 area). • Support: 4.05–4.10 (post‑breakout shelf), 3.97–4.00 (Fib 23.6/38.2 confluence zone and round number), 3.86–3.87 (50% retrace of the latest swing), 3.75–3.77 (61.8% retrace), 3.56 (Dec 1 low pivot).

2. Price action and pattern diagnostics

• Bull flag on the 1H: Impulse leg 3.56 → 4.26, followed by a tight downward‑to‑sideways drift 4.26 → ~4.05 with diminishing momentum, holding above prior breakout zone. This typically resolves higher when the underlying trend is bullish on the micro timeframe.
• Breakout‑retest: The 4.05–4.10 band aligns with the 23.6% pullback and the prior intraday resistance; price is hovering at this retest, which is constructive if buyers continue to defend the level.
• Candles: Expansion candles at 15:00–16:00 (strong body closes near highs) followed by smaller real bodies into 19:00–21:00 indicate cooling momentum but no aggressive supply absorption—consistent with a flag/coil rather than a reversal.

3. Volume and breadth

• Expansion on the up‑leg: Today’s reported turnover is notably above recent daily averages, confirming participation on the breakout.
• Consolidation volumes moderating: Post‑impulse volumes have contracted during the pullback, a bullish tell (sellers are not pressing aggressively). OBV on an intraday basis would be rising/plateauing rather than rolling over.

4. Momentum suite

• RSI (daily, approximate): After slipping toward the low‑40s/high‑30s into Dec 1, today’s rally likely lifts daily RSI toward 50–55, signaling momentum repair from oversold. On the hourly, RSI pulled back from overbought toward the midline while price held higher supports—bullish momentum reset.
• MACD (hourly): Positive cross with histogram expansion on the impulse; a shallow histogram pullback during consolidation while staying above the zero line is typical of trend continuation setups.
• ADX/DMI (hourly, inferred): ADX ticking up from low levels as the impulse establishes a trend; +DI > −DI, consistent with the breakout.

5. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily MAs (approx): Price has reclaimed the 7‑day MA (~4.01). It remains below the 20‑day MA (~4.20–4.25 estimate) and well below longer MAs, placing ORDI in a bear‑to‑repair transition. On the 1H, price is above short MAs (e.g., 20/50 EMA equivalents), which are turning up; the slope change plus price > intraday MAs supports a long bias on a 24h horizon.
• MA posture takeaway: Short‑term bull within a medium‑term downtrend. For 24h tactical trading, the short‑term bull can dominate.

6. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (1H, qualitative): Bands expanded on the breakout; price mean‑reverted toward the mid‑band around 4.05–4.10, holding near it without closing below the lower band—constructive for a subsequent push to re‑test the upper band in the next session.
• ATR (1H, rough): Intraday ranges have widened (impulsive 0.10–0.20 moves), increasing the probability of a revisit to 4.23–4.29 with adequate realized volatility to challenge/clear it.

7. Ichimoku (1H, qualitative)

• Price is above the cloud; the Tenkan is above the Kijun after the thrust. The pullback likely tagged/approached Kijun near 4.07–4.10. If price holds above Kijun and cloud remains supportive, the setup favors a continuation leg toward prior highs. Chikou span would be clear of price, reinforcing the bullish micro‑structure.

8. Fibonacci and confluence mapping

• Swing used: Dec 1 low (3.448–3.568 area) to today’s intraday high (4.287). Using 3.448 → 4.287 (Δ ≈ 0.839): • 23.6%: 4.287 − 0.236*0.839 ≈ 4.089 (current price ~4.086 sits right on it—key micro support). • 38.2%: ≈ 3.967 (first deeper support, aligns with round 3.97–4.00 and prior micro structure). • 50%: ≈ 3.868 (next pivotal support). • 61.8%: ≈ 3.769 (must‑hold for the bullish scenario).
• Overlap: 4.05–4.10 shelf (breakout retest) + 23.6% Fib + hourly mid‑band + Kijun proximity = strong immediate support zone.

9. Elliott wave sketch (tactical)

• Count hypothesis: Wave 1 up (3.56 → ~3.72), Wave 2 shallow pullback, Wave 3 extended (to 4.26–4.29), Wave 4 sideways/flag (to ~4.05–4.10), pending Wave 5 toward 4.34–4.48. Typical equality or 0.618 projection for Wave 5 from Wave 1 implies a conservative target ~4.34–4.40; extension could probe 4.45–4.50.

10. VWAP/anchored VWAP and mean reversion

• Anchored VWAP from today’s session (or from the Dec 1 low) likely resides just under current price (~3.95–4.02 estimate). Current trade slightly above AVWAP suggests buyers retain control; a wick into 4.00–4.03 would be a high‑probability dip buy if offered.

11. Market profile/read of supply–demand zones

• Demand: 3.97–4.05 (freshly built value, failed breakdown attempts intraday).
• Supply: 4.26–4.30 (today’s spike high cluster), then a thinner pocket toward 4.36 (prior daily swing). If 4.30 breaks on volume, price could traverse quickly to 4.34–4.36 and possibly 4.45 due to low recent acceptance in that band.

12. Risk scenarios and probabilities (24h)

• Base case (55–60%): Continue to coil above 4.05, then attempt a breakout through 4.23–4.30, tagging 4.34–4.36.
• Bull case (20–25%): Clean break of 4.30 with strong breadth, trend follow‑through to 4.45–4.50, intraday wicks toward 4.55 possible if momentum re‑accelerates.
• Bear case (20–25%): Lose 4.05 and 3.97 in a liquidity sweep; price probes 3.86–3.87 (50% fib). Only a firm acceptance below 3.86 would threaten the bullish 24h setup and re‑open 3.75/3.57.

13. Trade construction and triggers (tactical long bias)

• Rationale to lean long: • Micro trend has turned up (HH/HL), confirmed by breadth/volume expansion. • Price holding the 23.6% retrace and retesting prior resistance as support. • Momentum reset without breakdown; intraday MAs supportive.
• Entry tactics: • Preferred: Buy a pullback into 4.03–4.06 (mid‑band/Kijun/23.6% zone). • Alternate: Momentum add on a 1H close above 4.23 or a break of 4.26 with rising volume.
• Targets: First target 4.34–4.36 (prior daily resistance), stretch target 4.45–4.50 (supply pocket).
• Risk control (not part of the schema but recommended): Invalidated on 1H acceptance below 3.97; hard stop under 3.86 if giving the 50% retrace room. R:R from 4.05 → 4.36 is favorable versus a stop near 3.86.

14. Bottom line

• The confluence of breakout‑retest at 4.05–4.10, Fibonacci support at 23.6%, intraday trend strength, and volume profile argues for a 24h bullish continuation attempt toward 4.34–4.36, with an upside extension to ~4.45 if momentum persists. Near‑term invalidation resides below ~3.97/3.86.

Forecast next 24 hours: Bias up. Expect range 3.97–4.45 with a base‑case push to 4.34–4.36 after further consolidation or a shallow dip.