ORDI: Spring Reclaim Sets Up a 4.16 Dip-Buy for a Push to 4.38

Executive snapshot

• Bias next 24h: Moderately bullish (buy-the-dip/intraday breakout). Expect test of 4.21–4.32 resistance; upside extension toward 4.36–4.40 if 4.29 breaks with volume. Downside risk on failed breakout to 4.05–3.98.
• Rationale: Two-day momentum reversal from 12/1 low (3.568) with higher lows on the hourly, price reclaimed 9–20 day averages, improving breadth/OBV, and classic Wyckoff-style spring/recapture of the prior range. Still below medium-term trend, so target is tactical, not trend reversal.

Data quality note

• One extreme print on 10/10 (low ~1.41) appears as an outlier versus surrounding ranges; excluded from volatility baselining where appropriate.

Multi-timeframe trend and market structure

• Daily trend: Primary downtrend since mid-Sep (peaked ~10.7 in mid-Sep, lower highs, lower lows). However, the sequence since 12/1 shows a reversal attempt: HLs at 3.57 → 3.98 → 4.17.
• 4h/1h structure (using provided hourly bars 12/3): Constructive stair-step higher with successive higher lows (approx: 4.00 → 4.07 → 4.10 → 4.13 → 4.16–4.17) and pullbacks getting bought. Price closed near session highs into 22:00 UTC.
• Key levels (spot 4.174):
  • Supports: 4.11–4.13 (intraday demand), 4.05–4.06 (pivot S1 area), 3.98–4.00 (yesterday’s breakout base), 3.86–3.93 (S2/S3 zone). Major swing support: 3.57 (12/1 low; spring).
  • Resistances: 4.20–4.22 (fib 38.2% from 5.19→3.57), 4.29–4.30 (11/28 swing high; local lid), 4.32 (pivot R2), 4.36–4.40 (measured move/next supply), 4.54–4.56 (fib 61.8%).

Moving averages and mean reversion

• 20-day SMA (approx): 4.143 (computed from last 20 closes). Price 4.174 is marginally above the mid-band: short-term positive.
• 9–10 day EMA/SMA (est): ~4.08–4.12. Price is above: near-term momentum regained.
• 50-day SMA (est): well above current (legacy prices from Sept–Oct pull the average higher), indicating the medium-term trend is still down; treats rallies as countertrend until 4.9–5.2 area is reclaimed.
• Implication: Mean reversion supports continuation to upper half of the recent range (4.29–4.40) before encountering heavier supply from the medium-term downtrend.

Momentum oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) (approx): ~46 trending up from sub-40 post 12/1, reflecting improving momentum but not overbought. Room to 55–60 if breakout over 4.29 occurs.
• Stoch (14) (approx): ~83 given 14-day high/low window (H ~4.30, L ~3.57). Elevated, but in early up-cycle; sustained >80 during trend continuations is common.
• MACD (12/26/9) (qualitative): Histogram rising toward zero after prolonged negative phase; signal cross likely soon if price holds over 4.15–4.20. Bullish inflection, not yet fully confirmed on the daily.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (est): ~0.35–0.40. One-day expected move ≈ ±0.35–0.45.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) using 20SMA ≈ 4.143 and est stdev ≈ 0.30: Bands ≈ 3.54–4.74. Price bounced from the lower band (3.57) to above the mid-band: classic mean reversion setup with scope to probe the upper half of the envelope (4.30–4.50) if momentum persists.

Volume/flow

• Daily volume: 12/1 spike on selloff (~29M) followed by 12/2 recovery (~35M) and 12/3 ~28M. Pattern consistent with capitulation-and-recapture (buyers absorbed supply near lows, sustained interest on recovery).
• OBV (qualitative): Turning up with the two green days and intraday accumulation on 12/3.

Ichimoku (daily, approximations)

• Tenkan (9-period HL mid) ≈ (4.30 + 3.57)/2 ≈ 3.93. Price > Tenkan (bullish short-term control).
• Kijun (26-period HL mid) elevated by prior 6.0 spike: ≈ 4.78. Price < Kijun and likely below the cloud: medium-term still bearish. This favors tactical longs rather than trend longs; target the next resistance clusters rather than assuming a regime change.

Fibonacci mapping (swing 11/10 high 5.185 → 12/1 low 3.568)

• 38.2%: 4.214 (first major resistance now overhead),
• 50%: 4.377,
• 61.8%: 4.539.
• Spot 4.174 is just shy of 38.2%; a clean move through 4.214 opens a magnet toward 4.35–4.38 (50%).

Classical pivots (using 12/3 H/L/C ≈ 4.198/4.005/4.174)

• Pivot P ≈ 4.126; S1 ≈ 4.053; S2 ≈ 3.932; S3 ≈ 3.860; R1 ≈ 4.247; R2 ≈ 4.319; R3 ≈ 4.440.
• Expect tests of P→R1 zone overnight; a break and hold above R1 pushes to R2 (4.32). R2 aligns with the 11/28 lid and fib clustering overhead, reinforcing it as the key intraday target.

Price action/candles

• Daily: Two consecutive higher closes off the 12/1 spring low; small-bodied candles with higher lows indicate controlled advance.
• Intraday 12/3: Series of higher lows with shallow pullbacks; no aggressive supply spikes near the highs, suggesting offers near 4.17–4.20 were absorbed rather than strongly rejecting.

Wyckoff/Elliott viewpoint

• Wyckoff: 3.57 print resembles a spring below the 3.81 prior floor with immediate reclaim; we are likely in Phase D testing resistances. Confirms buy-the-dip with stops under the spring or the last minor LPS (last point of support) ~4.03–4.06.
• Elliott (micro): Impulsive leg 3.57→3.98 (wave 1), pullback marginal, then 3.98→4.17 (wave 3). A brief wave-4 dip to ~4.12–4.15 before a wave-5 push to 4.30–4.38 is consistent with today’s structure.

VWAP/anchored VWAP (qualitative)

• Session VWAP likely ~4.10–4.12 given intraday prints; price closed above, indicating buyers in control. Anchoring from 12/1 low would put AVWAP near 4.05–4.10; price above implies longs from the low are in profit and less likely to supply heavy sell pressure until upper resistances.

Confluence map

• Breakout trigger zone: 4.20–4.22 (fib 38.2% + psychological + intraday supply). Above here, air-pocket to 4.29–4.32 (R1/R2 + prior swing lid).
• Target cluster: 4.36–4.40 (measured move, half-back/50% fib 4.377, R2–R3 path).
• Support cluster: 4.11–4.13 (intraday HLs) then 4.05–4.06 (pivot S1). Deep defense: 3.98–4.00 (base). Invalidation below 3.93–3.98 range.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (45%): Early dip to 4.12–4.16, then push through 4.21–4.22 toward 4.29–4.32; stalls or consolidates below 4.32 into end of window. Close ~4.28–4.34.
• Bullish extension (30%): Quick reclaim above 4.22 at Asia open; break 4.29–4.32 on volume; trend to 4.36–4.40. Spike risk to 4.42–4.44 if R3 is tagged before mean reversion.
• Bearish fade (25%): Rejection at 4.21/4.24, drift back to 4.06–4.10 (S1–P). Deeper test to 3.98 possible if BTC risk-off; recovery likely into 4.05–4.15 range by window end.

Trade plan (tactical long)

• Entry: Prefer a buy-the-dip limit near 4.15–4.16 (retest of intraday demand/VWAP zone), or breakout trigger above 4.22 if dip does not occur. For a single optimal price, 4.16 offers favorable fill probability and R:R.
• Target (TP): 4.38 (aligns with 50% retrace 4.377 and pre-R3 supply). Extension target if momentum is strong: 4.42–4.44.
• Risk control (for context): Protective stop 4.03 (under S1 sweep/last LPS). R:R ≈ (4.38–4.16)/(4.16–4.03) ≈ 0.22/0.13 ≈ 1.7. Conservative stop 3.98 improves invalidation at expense of fill risk.
• Position sizing: Size for 1–1.5% account risk given crypto volatility and medium-term downtrend context.

Catalysts and risks

• Positive: Continuation breadth across alts, BTC stability, early Asia momentum, thin overhead offers around 4.21 then 4.29.
• Negative: Broad risk-off, BTC pullback, failure at 4.21 leading to swift rotation back to 4.05 or 3.98. Medium-term downtrend not yet reversed; treat as tactical swing, not investment.

Bottom line

• Momentum has turned up off a spring low, price reclaimed short-term moving averages and mid-BB. The path of least resistance over 24h is a grind higher into 4.29–4.32 with potential extension to 4.36–4.40. Best-in-class entry is a controlled dip buy near 4.16 with TP 4.38.