ORDI Teeters on the 4.20 Ledge: Short the Bounce for a Slide to 4.02

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Bearish continuation toward 4.05–4.00 after a failed push to 4.70 and late-session selloff that closed near the lows.
• Optimal tactic: Short a relief bounce into 4.24–4.26 supply; take profit around 4.02 (S1 pivot / prior demand shelf). If no bounce, momentum breakdown through 4.19 can still extend to 4.05.

1. Multi-timeframe market structure

• Higher timeframe (daily): From the 11/8 spike (H≈7.38 intraday, close ≈5.31) the structure has been a stair-step of lower highs/lower lows. Early December produced a countertrend rally from 3.57 (12/1) to 4.62 (12/13), but price has since rolled over (12/14 close 4.38 → current 4.20), leaving a lower high versus the 11/8 spike and setting a descending sequence.
• Pattern: Price action since 12/13 forms a descending triangle/ledgy consolidation with a flat-ish base around 4.20–4.19 and lower highs compressing beneath 4.26–4.29, increasing odds of a downside resolution.
• Intraday (hourly 12/15): Strong morning rally to 4.70 was fully faded. A clean sequence of lower highs (4.70 → 4.61 → 4.60 → 4.57 → 4.62 → 4.57 → 4.41) and lower lows into the close (4.20) signals active supply. Late day closed near the session low—a bearish tell for the next session.

2. Trend and moving averages

• 20D SMA (roughly computed from the last 20 daily closes) ≈ 4.12. Current price ≈ 4.20 sits modestly above the 20SMA but has turned lower after tagging the upper band area Friday. This suggests mean-reversion from an over-extended short-term pop back toward/through the mean is underway.
• 50D SMA (qualitative): Given the extended October–November downtrend, the 50D is likely well above current price (bearish long-term regime). Price below a falling 50D and near the 20D is classic bear-rally-cooling behavior.
• EMA ribbon view: Short EMAs have curled down after the 12/13 pop; expect 9/21 EMA bear cross on the daily if momentum persists another session.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-40s to low-50s after the recent bounce, now rolling over—consistent with bearish range behavior (RSI fails to reach classic bull 60–70 and instead turns down mid-range).
• Hourly RSI: After the 4.70 spike, sustained prints below 50 with weak bounces—bearish intraday momentum.
• MACD (daily, qualitative): Histogram likely flipped down after 12/13, signaling waning upside momentum and potential signal line bear cross if not already present.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• 20D BB: With 20SMA ≈ 4.12 and recent realized vol ≈ 0.20–0.25, bands are approximately UBB ≈ 4.55–4.60, LBB ≈ 3.65–3.70. Price tagged near the upper half on 12/13 then reverted toward the mean. With momentum negative, a drift toward the lower half is probable. A test of 4.05–3.98 sits comfortably within a 1-day ATR move.

5. Volume and order flow

• 12/13 volume expansion into 4.62 followed by two red days (12/14–15) suggests distribution at higher prices. 12/15 intraday showed heavy selling from 4.60s to low 4.20s and a close on lows, confirming supply.
• OBV (qualitative): Rolling over since 12/13; selling pressure outweighs buying on subsequent candles.

6. Ichimoku (daily, qualitative)

• Price is likely below the cloud (given the multi-week downtrend). Tenkan (9) ≈ midpoint of the last 9-day range; with the 9-day high ≈ 4.70 and low ≈ 3.89, Tenkan ≈ 4.30. Current ≈ 4.20 is below Tenkan—a bearish short-term signal. The Kijun (26) midpoint likely ≈ 4.05–4.15; price straddling/just above it with momentum turning down increases risk of a slide to/through the Kijun.

7. Fibonacci mapping (swing 12/1 low → 12/13 high)

• Swing: 3.567 → 4.622 (Δ ≈ 1.055)
• 38.2%: 4.219 (tested and marginally lost into the close)
• 50%: 4.095
• 61.8%: 3.970
• The close under the 38.2% and the intraday failure to reclaim 4.26 favor continuation toward 50% (≈4.10) and possibly 61.8% (≈3.97) within the next session if momentum persists.

8. Pivot points (classic, using 12/15 H≈4.702, L≈4.193, C≈4.197)

• P ≈ (4.702 + 4.193 + 4.197) / 3 ≈ 4.364
• S1 ≈ 2P − H ≈ 4.026
• R1 ≈ 2P − L ≈ 4.535
• S2 ≈ P − (H − L) ≈ 3.855
• Trading below P and failing to reclaim it early next session tilts the path toward S1 (≈4.03). A volatile day could probe S2 (≈3.86), which aligns with late-Nov support.

9. ATR and feasible path next 24h

• Recent daily ranges cluster around 0.40–0.55 (ATR14 ≈ 0.45). From 4.24, a 0.22–0.26 move to 4.02–3.98 is well within one ATR. Even from current 4.20, a push to 4.02 is a standard range extension.

10. Supply/demand zones and key levels

• Supply: 4.24–4.29 (hourly distribution shelf and lower-high zone), 4.53–4.60 (R1 and failed block from 12/13–14).
• Demand: 4.05–4.10 (50% fib, prior cluster), 3.95–4.00 (61.8% fib/round number), 3.84–3.86 (S2 / late-Nov base).

11. Candle/price-action diagnostics

• 12/15: Long upper shadow session (AM strength sold aggressively), close near lows → bearish continuation setup.
• Hourly: Post-15:00 breakdown to 4.41, then 16:00 expansion to 4.23, followed by weak bounces capped by 4.26–4.29—classic bear flag then roll.

12. VWAP and mean reversion (intraday)

• Anchored session VWAP (12/15) would sit well above current (~4.40–4.45). Price remained under VWAP most of the NY afternoon—sellers in control. Expect first bounce attempts to stall near VWAP bands on the next session’s open; on thin liquidity, a tag of 4.24–4.26 (beneath prior VWAP) is a high-quality fade.

13. Elliott/Wyckoff framing (qualitative)

• The 12/1–12/13 rise looks like an ABC corrective upswing within a larger downtrend. Breakdown from the B-to-C rally high (4.62) and loss of 4.30–4.26 support suggests the next markdown leg is unfolding toward 4.05–3.98.

14. Confluence summary

• Bearish structure (descending triangle at 4.20 base) + failure at upper supply + close on lows + trading below daily pivot + momentum roll + fib confluence at 4.10/3.97 + ATR feasibility = High-probability continuation lower before any sustainable base forms.

15. Trade plan (next 24h)

• Direction: Short the bounce.
• Entry zone: 4.24–4.26 (prior intraday supply, just below 38.2% fib and under hourly LH cluster), with an alternative momentum entry on a breakdown below 4.19 if no bounce materializes.
• Target: 4.02 (aligns with S1 pivot and demand shelf); stretch target 3.98–3.97 (61.8% fib) if momentum accelerates.
• Invalidation (context, not an order): Sustained reclaim and hold above 4.31–4.33 would negate the immediate short thesis and risk a squeeze toward 4.53 (R1).

16. Expected path

• Asia/early EU: relief bounce toward 4.24–4.26 gets sold.
• NY: downside extension; first destination 4.08–4.05; if liquidity thin, a wick toward 4.00/3.98 before responsive buying.

Conclusion

• Bias: Sell rallies. The highest-odds and risk-efficient location is a short in the 4.24–4.26 supply pocket, targeting 4.02 within 24 hours. The technical stack (structure, momentum, pivots, fibs, volume) aligns on the bearish side.