ORDI: Bearish Reversal at the Cliff — Short the 4.10 Retest to Ride the Slide

Executive summary and bias

• Bias next 24h: Bearish with a sell-the-bounce setup. Expect a weak rebound to 4.06–4.14, then continuation lower to 3.88–3.84. If 3.84 breaks cleanly, extension toward 3.62–3.58 possible. Invalidation on a sustained reclaim of 4.24–4.27.

Multi-timeframe structure

• Daily trend: Down since mid-October, with lower highs and lower lows. A corrective rally from the 12/01 low (3.568) to 12/16 high (4.846) was rejected with a long upper wick and today’s bearish reversal. Price sits below the 20/50/200-day MAs (bearish alignment likely), confirming a primary downtrend.
• Intraday (1H): Waterfall selloff from ~4.57 to 3.93 with minimal bounce into the close, indicating weak dip demand. Structure shows successive lower highs/lows and a broken intraday support shelf (4.27) that now acts as resistance.

Key levels (confluence from price action, pivots, Fibs)

• Immediate resistance: 4.06–4.14 (former support, now resistance; near 20D SMA band and daily S1 pivot), 4.21–4.24 (50% retrace of 3.568→4.846 at 4.207; frequent reaction zone), 4.27 (hourly breakdown pivot), 4.36 (61.8% retrace at ~4.357; also near Tenkan/BB midlines earlier this week).
• Immediate support: 3.93–3.96 (current prints), 3.88–3.84 (0.786 retrace of the 12/01→12/16 swing; aligns with 11/21 pivot 3.844), 3.72 (daily S2 pivot projection), 3.60–3.57 (12/01 swing low zone).

Moving averages and slopes

• 20D SMA ≈ 4.13 (est.). Price = 3.93, below by ~4.8%. Recent slope had flattened then turned down post 12/16 rejection; price closing below the 20D after tagging 4.85 suggests the short-lived rally likely ended.
• 50D SMA (est.) > 20D SMA and falling; price below both = bearish regime. 200D SMA even higher; broad trend negative.
• Hourly 20/50/200 SMAs are overhead (clustered roughly 4.15–4.45). Price trading below a downward-sloping MA stack signals trend continuation lower on bounces.

Momentum and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 46 (est.). Not oversold; in a bearish “mid-band” regime where downtrends persist. The large down day could pull RSI towards low-40s without immediate mean-reversion pressure.
• Hourly RSI likely sub-35 with attempts to base; minor bullish divergence potential is weak so far given no meaningful price bounce—favours fade of first rebound.
• MACD (daily): Histogram likely flipped negative post 12/16; signal lines curling down = fresh bearish cross risk. On hourly, MACD firmly negative with room for brief zero-line retest on a bounce.
• Stochastics (hourly) near oversold but not reversing aggressively—consistent with “oversold can stay oversold” in trends. Look for a shallow recovery to mid-band before rolling.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14D) (est.) ~0.35–0.45. A 1×ATR move from 3.93 implies 3.55–4.38 daily range potential; today already realized the downside skew.
• Bollinger Bands (20D): Mid ≈ 4.13; lower band estimated ~3.50–3.60. Price is below mid and leaning toward lower band, but not yet at band extremes—leaves room for controlled downside after a modest uptick.

Ichimoku (9/26/52, approximations)

• Price below cloud; cloud likely bearish (Senkou A < Senkou B). Tenkan around mid-4.3s earlier this week, Kijun still elevated by the Nov spike—both above price. Chikou below price and cloud. Full bearish Ichimoku posture suggests rallies into 4.30–4.40 face supply.

Fibonacci mapping (12/01 low 3.568 → 12/16 high 4.846)

• 38.2%: ~4.056 (now resistance).
• 50%: ~4.207 (confluent with prior reactions and supply zone).
• 61.8%: ~4.357 (upper resistance if a stronger bounce occurs).
• 78.6%: ~3.842 (key support shelf). Current price sits between 61.8% and 78.6% levels; classical corrective completion often occurs near 0.786.

Classical price action

• Candlesticks: 12/16 printed a long upper wick rejection at 4.846. 12/17 (today) is a wide-range red candle that engulfs much of the prior day’s body—a bearish key reversal. Follow-through probability next session is elevated.
• Structure: Break of 4.27 intraday support triggered acceleration. Weak closing print near the low (3.934) shows sellers controlled the session end.

Pivots and VWAP

• Floor pivots from 12/16 (H 4.846, L 4.070, C 4.561): P ≈ 4.493; S1 ≈ 4.139; S2 ≈ 3.716. Price below S1—in many cases first bounce retests S1 from below before resuming lower.
• Intraday VWAP (rough estimate for 12/17) resides above price, likely in the 4.15–4.25 band given heavy sell volume into the afternoon. Trading below a falling VWAP supports short-on-retest logic.

Volume and participation

• Distribution: Large volume expansion on down legs recently (e.g., today’s 16:00 hour heavy). Prior massive supply events on 11/07–11/08 still overhang the chart. Recent green days (12/13–12/16) did not absorb that overhead entirely and were sold into.
• Conclusion: Sellers remain in control; bounce attempts are opportunities to sell until evidence of absorption above 4.24–4.27.

Market regime and risk framing

• Regime: Downtrend with increasing range. “Sell rallies” outperforms “buy dips” until major supports convert or momentum shifts.
• Expected 24h path: Asia/EU sessions probe 3.88–3.84, a reflex bounce to 4.06–4.14 (S1 / 38.2% retrace zone), then a fade toward 3.88–3.84 into the next close. If 3.84 breaks with momentum, extension toward 3.62–3.58 (near prior value and lower BB vicinity) before a stronger reactive bounce. If price reclaims 4.24 and holds, the day’s bias flips to a squeeze toward 4.36.

Trade plan (short setup)

• Rationale: Confluence of downtrend, bearish reversal candle, breakdown of hourly support (4.27), price below 20D SMA and VWAP, and proximity to—but not yet at—major support suggests a rebound into resistance is likely to be sold.
• Entry: Sell the retest into 4.10 (limit), inside the 4.06–4.14 supply pocket and near daily S1.
• Stop (for risk control; not part of the requested output fields): 4.27 (above breakdown pivot and the 4.24 micro-supply). Risk ≈ 0.17.
• Take profit (primary): 3.84 (0.786 Fib and prior shelf). Reward ≈ 0.26. R:R ~1.5:1.
• Optional extended target (secondary, if momentum accelerates): 3.60–3.58 zone; trail once 3.88 prints.
• Contingencies: If price fails to bounce to 4.06–4.14 and instead breaks 3.90 immediately, consider chasing only on a retest of 3.90 from below with tight risk; otherwise wait for the planned 4.10 tag.

Indicator-by-indicator verdict

• Trend/MAs: Bearish; favors Sell.
• RSI/MACD/Stoch: Momentum rolling over; favors Sell after small mean reversion.
• Bollinger/ATR: Room to the lower band with high realized vol; favors Sell.
• Ichimoku: Fully bearish; favors Sell.
• Fibs/Pivots: Retest of S1/38.2% at ~4.06–4.14 likely; optimal short zone; favors Sell.
• Volume/VWAP: Below VWAP with distribution; favors Sell.

Bottom line

• Probability-weighted expectation: 60% chance we see 4.06–4.14 retest, then 3.88–3.84 test within 24h; 25% chance we flush directly to 3.84 → 3.62 without a quality bounce; 15% chance of invalidation via reclaim of 4.24–4.27 leading to 4.36 squeeze.
• Action: Short the bounce. Open ~4.10, target 3.84 within 24h. Invalidate above 4.27.