ORDI coiling under the 20‑day line: buy the 4.00 dip for a 4.22–4.28 retest within 24 hours

Step-by-step multi-factor technical analysis for ORDI (next 24 hours)

1. Market structure and trend context

• Higher timeframe context (daily since late November): After a prolonged downtrend from ~10 in Sep to sub-4 in Dec, ORDI has carved out a volatile base in the 3.57–4.56 range. The structure shows a sequence of swing attempts: 12/01 capitulation close 3.57, rally to 12/09 close 4.41, pullback, new high close 4.56 on 12/16, followed by sharp two-day flush to 3.65 on 12/18 and a rebound to 4.05 today (12/19). This is consistent with a broad basing regime with whipsaw, not a clean trending environment.
• Near-term (last 3 sessions): 12/18 tagged lower-band type levels (3.60–3.65), 12/19 intraday reached as high as 4.19 and settled around 4.05, leaving a long upper wick against local supply ~4.17–4.20. This sets up a likely consolidation-to-continue scenario with an upward bias if dips are defended above 3.95–4.00.

2. Support and resistance mapping

• Supports: 3.57 (12/01 low/close), 3.60–3.65 (12/18 low/close cluster), 3.90–3.95 (multi-touch pivot zone 12/03–12/12 & 12/17–12/19 hourly VPOC-like area).
• Resistances: 4.10–4.15 (20D SMA/Kijun region), 4.18–4.22 (intraday supply/50% retracement of the 12/16→12/18 downswing), 4.37–4.41 (61.8% retracement and prior daily close 12/09), 4.56 (12/16 close/high area).

3. Moving averages (trend gauges)

• 20-day SMA ≈ 4.11 (computed from the last 20 closes). Price 4.05 is slightly below, implying the immediate bias is neutral-to-slightly-bearish until reclaimed, but very close—easy to flip bullish on a modest push.
• 50-day SMA (approximation) still trending down given the October/November decline; price oscillating around the short-term averages suggests range-bound market conditions.
• Intraday EMAs (hourly): Price rallied above short EMAs in the first half of 12/19, then mean-reverted to ~4.05 near hourly VWAP, indicating consolidation around a fair price. A reclaim/hold above 4.07–4.10 would tilt hourly momentum back up.

4. Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Midline ~ 4.11; estimated lower band ~3.50–3.55; upper band ~4.70–4.75. 12/18’s tag near the lower band and 12/19’s bounce is a classic mean-reversion response. Price currently sits just below the midline; common path is a minor dip/reload and another attempt toward the midline/upper half (4.15–4.24). If rejected at the midline again, price often revisits 3.95–4.00 before another try.

5. RSI and oscillators

• Daily RSI(14) ≈ 48 (computed from the last 14 changes) — neutral, edging up from yesterday’s oversold-lean. That mix favors a mild continuation bounce unless strong resistance caps it.
• Stochastic (qualitative read): After the intraday pop and fade, stochastic likely mid-band with potential for a fresh bullish cross on another push >4.10. Short-term, a small pullback can reset it without breaking structure.

6. MACD (12,26,9) – qualitative

• Given the sharp two-day selloff and today’s rebound, daily MACD line is near/below zero but curling higher, histogram likely narrowing (less negative/near flat). A small follow-through day could flip histogram positive, aligning with an upside test into 4.18–4.24.

7. Ichimoku (daily)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period midpoint) ≈ (12/16 high 4.846 + 12/18 low 3.606)/2 ≈ 4.249 — above price.
• Kijun-sen (26-period midpoint within Nov 24–Dec 19 window) ≈ (4.846 + 3.448)/2 ≈ 4.147 — just above current price.
• Price < Tenkan and ≈ Kijun: short-term bearish-to-neutral, but very close to a Kijun reclaim. A daily hold above ~4.15 would be a constructive signal toward 4.25–4.37. Until then, expect resistance on first tests into 4.15–4.25.

8. ADX/DMI (qualitative)

• Trend strength likely modest (ADX ~20 or less) post-selloff; conditions are range-like. In ranges, fade extremes and buy dips near support typically outperforms chasing breakouts.

9. ATR and expected move

• Daily ATR(14) estimate ≈ 0.40–0.45. From 4.05, a typical 1x ATR swing projects 3.65–3.60 downside or 4.45–4.50 upside. For the next 24 hours, a 0.2–0.35 move is plausible, centering 3.95–4.24.

10. Fibonacci levels (last impulse leg)

• Measure 12/16 high 4.846 → 12/18 low 3.606 (Δ=1.240):
  • 38.2%: 3.606 + 0.473 ≈ 4.079 (today’s intraday battle zone; price oscillated around it)
  • 50%: 3.606 + 0.620 ≈ 4.226 (key intraday target/resistance for next session)
  • 61.8%: 3.606 + 0.766 ≈ 4.372 (stretch target if momentum expands)
• Price is hovering around the 38.2% area; a successful hold above ~4.08–4.10 opens a magnet to the 50% at ~4.23.

11. Classic pivots (derived from 12/19 intraday H/L/C ≈ 4.194/3.646/4.046)

• Pivot P ≈ 3.962; R1 ≈ 4.278; S1 ≈ 3.730; R2 ≈ 4.510; S2 ≈ 3.414.
• The confluence of R1 (4.278) with fib 50–61.8% region implies 4.22–4.28 is a logical profit-taking band if the bounce continues.

12. Volume/OBV and profile

• Volume expanded on the 12/13 and 12/16 advances, then spiked on 12/17 selloff; past two sessions are moderate. OBV over the last three weeks is roughly sideways with a constructive tilt after 12/06–12/13 accumulation. Intraday 12/19 volume thinned in the second half as price balanced near 4.05—typical of a pause before the next attempt.
• Volume nodes appear at 3.95–4.05 (acceptance) and supply around 4.18–4.22. If buyers absorb 4.18–4.22, a quick push into low-volume air towards 4.28–4.37 is possible.

13. Candlesticks

• 12/18 printed a long lower-shadow sell climax-like day into 3.60s; 12/19 printed a rebound with a notable upper wick (rejection near 4.19). This pair often precedes an inside day or a brief dip-and-go (buy-the-dip into support, then re-test resistance). The wick warns against chasing 4.15–4.20 on first touch; better to buy the reload near 4.00–4.02.

14. Elliott wave lens (tactical)

• From 12/01 low: wave-1 to 12/09, wave-2 to 12/10, wave-3 to 12/16, wave-4 sharp to 12/18. A developing wave-5 could carry toward 4.35–4.55 if the base holds. Within a 24-hour horizon, the likely expression is a measured move to ~4.22–4.28 (R1/fib 50%) rather than the full extension.

15. Harmonic/AB=CD symmetry (tactical)

• A potential ABCD from 12/18 low (A) to 12/19 noon high (B), B→C pullback to ~4.00, projecting C→D equal to A→B suggests a D near 4.22–4.26—aligns with fib 50% and pivot R1 proximity.

16. VWAP (intraday 12/19)

• Price closed near VWAP (~4.03–4.06). Reclaims/holds above VWAP on the next session typically aid a measured push to session highs first (4.10–4.15) and then resistance (4.18–4.22). A brief slip below VWAP to 3.98–4.02 would be the preferred dip-buy location.

17. Regression channel and mean reversion

• A short-term regression on the past 5–7 sessions centers around ~4.10 with boundaries ~3.85 and ~4.35. Price at 4.05 sits near the mean—tilting tactics to buy dips rather than chase breakouts. Expect ping-pong behavior unless 4.22 decisively breaks.

18. Risk management and scenarios (24h)

• Base case (55%): Early dip to 4.00 ±0.02, hold above 3.95, then grind higher into 4.18–4.24. Close near 4.12–4.20.
• Bull case (25%): Quick reclaim of 4.10–4.15 on open, squeeze through 4.22 to 4.26–4.30 (R1), optional extension to 4.34–4.37 if momentum/volume expand.
• Bear case (20%): Failure to hold 3.98–4.00 leads to a push toward 3.90 and, if liquidity thins, a probe into 3.78–3.75 (near S1 3.73). Given the 12/18 capitulation, deeper downside is less probable without a new catalyst.
• Tactical R:R for a dip-buy at ~4.00 with TP 4.24 and a protective stop ~3.86 (below recent micro swing/acceptance) yields ~0.24:0.14 ≈ 1.7:1—acceptable in a range regime.

Synthesis and outlook

• Multiple tools (BB mean reversion, RSI normalization, MACD curl, pivot/fib confluence at 4.22–4.28) support a buy-the-dip approach rather than shorting just under resistance. The key inflection is the 4.08–4.15 band (20D SMA/Kijun/fib 38.2–50%). A dip fill toward 3.99–4.02 offers the best asymmetric entry for a push toward 4.22–4.28 within 24 hours.

Prediction (next 24 hours)

• Expected range: 3.95–4.24 (tails possible to 3.90 downside or 4.28 upside). Bias: mild bullish. Path: Dip to ~4.00, then attempt to break/hold >4.10–4.15, target 4.22–4.24. If 4.22 breaks on volume, 4.26–4.30 is the stretch.

Trade plan

• Decision: Buy (Long position).
• Optimal open (limit): 4.00 (buy the dip into VWAP/acceptance, slightly below current 4.05).
• Take-profit (close): 4.24 (at fib 50%/near R1 and supply shelf). Contingency: If momentum accelerates, scale partials 4.22–4.28.
• Risk note: While stop is not requested, a prudent protective level sits near 3.86–3.90 to preserve R:R if support fails.