ORDI Price Analysis Powered by AI

ORDI: Confluence Support at 4.08–4.13 Sets Up a Tactical Year‑End Bounce Toward 4.31

Executive summary

Bias next 24h: Mild bullish mean-reversion from a dense confluence support at 4.08–4.13 toward 4.25–4.32, with a stretch target near 4.40 if momentum improves. Downside risk if 4.08 fails, opening 4.00/3.95.
Plan: Buy the dip in the 4.10–4.12 pocket or on confirmation reclaim >4.17. Initial take-profit set just below overhead resistance/pivot R1 around 4.317.
Why: Multiple tools cluster support at 4.08–4.13 (20‑day SMA ≈4.11, daily S2 ≈4.10, 50% Fib ≈4.106 of 12/16→12/18 swing, 61.8% Fib ≈4.083 of 12/25→12/28 swing). RSI ≈50 and Bollinger mid-band suggest reversion probabilities; hourly shows selling pressure fading at that zone.

Daily trend (Oct→now): Primary downtrend from early Oct highs (>8) into Nov/Dec base (3.57–4.62). Since 12/21: sequence of higher lows (3.828 → 3.937 → 3.836 → 3.987 → 3.922 → 4.154 → 4.281 → 4.234), indicating a short-term upward bias within a larger bearish structure.
Recent micro-swing: 12/25 close 3.922 → 12/28 high 4.335, then a controlled pullback to 4.14; pullback magnitude ≈ 50–61.8% of the latest impulse – a classic buy-the-dip zone if trend persists.
Hourly (today): Lower highs from 4.30 → 4.26 → 4.20, but repeated stabilizations around 4.10–4.14. Sellers failing to extend below S2 (≈4.10) increases bounce odds into Asia/Europe sessions.

Supports: 4.13/4.12 (spot), 4.106 (50% Fib of 12/16→12/18), 4.1007 (daily S2), 4.083 (61.8% Fib of 12/25→12/28), 4.00 (round/volume node), 3.95 (S3 proj.).
Resistances: 4.167 (S1 flip), 4.25 (pivot P), 4.317 (R1), 4.33–4.35 (local highs), 4.40–4.42 (R2/upper tolerance), 4.56–4.62 (major supply from 12/13–16).

20-day SMA ≈ 4.11: price slightly above/around it – a mean-reversion magnet and support pivot.
50-day SMA (est.) > price (≈4.4–4.8), 200-day SMA >> price: longer-term trend still down; short-term bounce is countertrend to the 50/200 but aligned with the 20-day.
Slope: 20-day flattening upward, 50-day downward – mixed but supportive of a tactical bounce.

RSI(14) ≈ 49–50: neutral; plenty of headroom for a push to R1 without overbought friction.
Stoch RSI (qualitative): recent pullback from a short overbought state likely reset oscillators toward midline – conducive to a fresh upturn if support holds.
MACD(12,26,9): histogram near flat to slightly negative after the pullback; a small bullish hook is plausible on a move >4.17–4.20.

ATR(14) ≈ 0.31: expected 24h envelope roughly 4.14 ± 0.31 → 3.83–4.45. A move to 4.28–4.32 is well within 1 ATR; 4.40 requires momentum but remains feasible.
Bollinger Bands(20,2): mid ≈ 4.11, upper ≈ 4.67, lower ≈ 3.55. Current price near mid-band, supporting mean-reversion bounces rather than breakdowns absent a shock.
Keltner (qualitative, ATR-based): price near center channel – neutral; an expansion day can push to the upper band near 4.30–4.35.

Tenkan (9) ≈ 4.04; Kijun (26) ≈ 4.147; Senkou A ≈ (Tenkan+Kijun)/2 ≈ 4.09; Senkou B (52) ≈ 5.18.
State: Price fractionally below Kijun and near Senkou A – typical decision area. Above 4.15–4.17 reclaims Kijun, often triggering mean-reversion toward 4.25–4.32. Cloud remains bearish overall (B >> A), so treat it as a tactical long, not a structural swing.

Swing 12/16 high 4.561 → 12/18 low 3.651:
- 50% = 4.106 (price hovering just above)
- 61.8% = 4.213 (first upside checkpoint)
- 78.6% = 4.366 (stretch near R2)
Swing 12/25 close 3.922 → 12/28 high 4.335:
- 38.2% = 4.173 (today’s intraday cap)
- 50% = 4.128 (current area)
- 61.8% = 4.083 (next support)
Confluence: 4.08–4.13 is a multi-Fib support knot – high-probability reaction zone.

P = 4.251; R1 = 4.317; R2 = 4.401; S1 = 4.167; S2 = 4.101; S3 ≈ 3.950.
Today’s action respected S2; mean reversion suggests a magnet toward P and a test of R1 within 24h if S2 holds.

Recent volumes tapered from the mid-December spike (trend impulse) to lighter holiday prints; lighter volume usually favors mean reversion over trend continuation.
OBV (qualitative): Net accumulation from 12/21–12/28 with only modest distribution today – suggests dip remains buyable unless broad market risk-off hits.

Donchian 20-day: High 4.846 (12/16), low 3.651 (12/18), mid ≈ 4.248. Price below midline: a reclaim of 4.25 would be constructive and aligns with our target path.
Regression channel (short window 12/21→today): Price near lower half after a 3-day pullback – historically in this tape, rebounds to the channel mean followed.

Daily: 12/27 strong body, 12/28 small pullback, 12/29 developing neutral-to-small bearish body into a strong support pocket – not distributional.
Hourly: Series of lower highs with diminishing body size and lower wicks into 4.10–4.14 – suggests seller exhaustion and demand absorption.

Phase B/C-like behavior in a developing range 3.83–4.33. Today resembles a secondary test in the lower-middle of the range rather than a sign of weakness. A push above 4.17–4.20 would represent demand emergence and likely rotation to the opposite side of the day’s value area (4.25+).

From 12/21 low: impulsive 5-wave-like move into 12/28, followed by an ABC pullback now completing around the 0.5–0.618 zone. If valid, next micro-wave targets 4.25–4.33 before reassessing.

Bullish base case (55–60%): Hold 4.08–4.13, reclaim 4.17 (S1), run to 4.25 (P), tag 4.31–4.33 (R1/prev high cluster).
Range chop (20–25%): 4.08–4.25 oscillation; fades near pivot.
Bear break (15–20%): Clean loss of 4.08 opens 4.00/3.95 (S3) before responsive buying appears.

Invalidation: Hourly close < 4.08 or daily close < 4.06 negates the confluence support thesis and shifts bias to 4.00/3.95 tests.
Leverage caution: ATR ~0.31 implies 7–8% daily swings are common; size accordingly.

Conclusion

The tape favors a tactical long: strong confluence support, neutral momentum with room to run, and mean-reversion dynamics into the daily pivot/R1. Aim to capture the move to ~4.31 while risk-managing against a break of 4.08.