ORDI Coils Under 4.25: Ascending Triangle Poised for a Year‑End Pop

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for ORDI (24h outlook)

1. Price action overview and structure

• Higher-timeframe context (Oct → Dec): ORDI topped near 8.9 in early Oct, then structurally trended down with a capitulation leg Oct 10 and subsequent multi-week distribution/decline into mid-December. A multi-week base has formed between roughly 3.65 and 4.35 since Dec 18, with successively higher swing-lows (3.65 → 3.83 → 3.94 → 4.09), indicating accumulation and an emerging ascending triangle beneath 4.30–4.35 resistance.
• Recent daily closes (Dec 26 → Dec 30 intraday): 4.154 → 4.281 → 4.234 → 4.093 → 4.219 (current). Price dipped toward 4.09 and has rebounded back above 4.20, maintaining the series of higher lows and defending the 4.08–4.10 support shelf.
• Intraday (hourly 12/30): A steady grind higher with higher highs/lows. Break attempts toward 4.24–4.25 have met supply but pullbacks are shallow, suggesting dip-buying. A micro inverted H&S/ascending wedge under 4.24–4.25 has formed; price retested and held the 4.21 area after a marginal breakout.

2. Trend and moving averages

• SMA(20) daily ≈ 4.092 (derived from last 20 closes). Current price 4.219 > SMA20: short-term bullish tilt and mean-reversion tailwind upward.
• Probable EMA(8) > EMA(21) cross on daily: momentum recovery from Dec 18 low suggests 8>21 or near-cross, supporting a nascent uptrend within a broader downtrend (SMA50 likely > price).
• Hourly MAs: Price riding above intraday short MAs (e.g., 20/50-period), consistent with an intraday bullish bias.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx): ~40–45 and rising from sub-40 lows, reflecting improving but not overbought momentum. Room to push into neutral/bullish (>50) zone if 4.25–4.33 breaks.
• RSI(14) hourly: likely mid-50s to low-60s with series of positive swings—supports continuation until local overbought (>70) appears.
• MACD daily: Below zero, histogram improving toward a potential signal-line cross. This “negative-to-less-negative” transition often precedes short-covering pops toward the nearest resistance (4.28–4.33).
• Stochastic daily: Curling up from mid-range, supports a push to test resistance before any reset.

4. Volatility and range

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.28–0.32, implying a typical 24h realized range of ±0.30 around current price. This brackets the next-day range roughly between 3.92 and 4.52 from 4.22.
• Hourly Bollinger Bands: Bandwidth contracted earlier; modest expansion started on the up-move. A local squeeze just under 4.25 often resolves with a directional push—first move likely up given the higher-lows and positioning above the hourly mid-band/VWAP.

5. Bands and channels

• Bollinger Bands daily (20,2): Price near/above the middle band (~SMA20 ≈ 4.09). Room toward the upper band area (estimated low-to-mid 4.3s to 4.4s depending on precise stdev) aligns with a near-term test of R2 pivot (see below).
• Donchian 20-day: Recent extreme low ~3.61 (Dec 18), high ~4.85 (Dec 16). Price is mid-channel; reclaiming the mid-to-upper channel zone argues for a probe of 4.33–4.46 if momentum sustains.

6. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price above Tenkan (fast baseline) and testing/near Kijun; cloud (Kumo) likely overhead and mildly bearish but thinning. A Tenkan>Kijun structure with price above Tenkan leans constructive for a challenge into the cloud underside (upper 4.3s–4.4s) if 4.25/4.33 gives way. Chikou likely still below price/overhead supply, tempering the move but not negating it.

7. Volume, OBV, and money flow

• Volume: After the mid-Dec volatility burst, volume moderated but shows selective upticks on green candles (e.g., 12/30 14:00, 16:00, 19:00 hours). Bulls defending pullbacks without heavy distribution is supportive.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilized since Dec 21 with a gentle up-bias; no obvious distribution at the top of intraday pushes.
• MFI (inferred): Mid-range, supports additional upside headroom before overbought conditions.

8. Fibonacci confluence

• Swing 12/13 high (4.622) → 12/18 low (3.651):
  • 38.2% ≈ 4.02 (was support), 50% ≈ 4.137, 61.8% ≈ 4.253. Price is oscillating around the golden-ratio 61.8% (4.25), which is acting as resistance; a decisive reclaim of 4.25 is a classic continuation trigger to test 4.33–4.38.
• Micro swing 12/27 high (4.335) → 12/29 low (4.093):
  • 61.8% ≈ 4.237; today’s high stalled just below this, reinforcing the 4.24–4.25 supply band. Clearing 4.237–4.253 opens a Fibonacci pocket toward full retest of 4.335 and extension into 4.38–4.41.

9. Classical levels and pivots

• Key supports: 4.10–4.12 (intraday shelf), 3.99–4.00 (psych/round), 3.93–3.95 (recent closes), 3.82–3.85, 3.65 (swing low).
• Key resistances: 4.24–4.25 (Fibo 61.8% cluster), 4.28–4.33 (horizontal cap; 12/27 high 4.335), 4.41–4.46 (prior supply/Dec 9 & 13 area), 4.56–4.71 (upper supply ledge).
• Daily pivots (calculated from 12/29 H=4.3035, L=4.0791, C=4.0932):
  • Pivot P ≈ 4.1586
  • R1 ≈ 4.2381 (price is hovering at/just below)
  • R2 ≈ 4.3830 (logical take-profit magnet on breakout)
  • S1 ≈ 4.0137, S2 ≈ 3.9342 These align with the observed market structure and give precise upside magnets if 4.24–4.25 breaks.

10. Candlestick/price pattern diagnostics

• Daily: 12/29 printed a small-bodied candle near the lower third of the weekly bounce; today’s intraday follow-through reclaimed the prior day’s mid, a subtle bullish continuation cue.
• Hourly: Multiple higher lows and a shallow bull flag/inverted H&S under 4.24–4.25. A clean hourly close >4.246 would typically target the prior swing high (4.33) and pivot R2 (4.38) within one ATR day, especially in year-end thinner liquidity where breakouts overshoot.

11. Liquidity and order-flow inferences

• Liquidity likely concentrated at:
  • Stops above 4.24–4.25 and 4.33 (two-stage stop runs). A sweep above 4.25 could accelerate toward 4.33; a secondary sweep >4.34 could tag 4.38–4.41 quickly.
  • Bids around 4.10 (hourly demand/MA confluence) and 4.00 (psych). A dip to 4.18–4.20 often finds buyers in this regime.

12. Risk factors and alternate reads

• Year-end liquidity can amplify fakeouts; first break above 4.25 might retest 4.21–4.22 before the next leg. Failure to hold 4.18–4.20 after a breakout attempt would warn of a deeper mean-reversion to 4.10 and possibly 4.00.
• Macro/market beta (not assessed here) could add noise; risk-manage via stops.

13. 24-hour scenario map (probabilistic)

• Base/bullish (55%): Hold above 4.18–4.20, break 4.24–4.25, run to 4.33; if momentum persists, extend to pivot R2 ~4.38 (stretch 4.41–4.46 if stop cascade triggers). Expected range: 4.15–4.40, with spikes to 4.45 possible.
• Range-bound (25%): Whipsaw between 4.10 and 4.28 without decisive resolution. Multiple taps at 4.24–4.25 but no close through. Range closes near 4.18–4.24.
• Bearish (20%): Rejection at 4.24–4.25, lose 4.18 and 4.10 on momentum, test 4.00; extreme scenario probes 3.94–3.93 supports before rebalancing.

14. Strategy synthesis and trade plan

• Confluence for a tactical long:
  • Higher lows into a flat(ish) ceiling: ascending triangle under 4.30–4.33.
  • Price > SMA20 and intraday MAs, RSI rising, MACD improving, hourly structure constructive.
  • Fibonacci 61.8% at 4.25 acts as a trigger; pivot map points to R2 ≈ 4.383, matching an achievable ATR move.
• Entry logic: Prefer a buy-the-dip into 4.19–4.21 (prior breakout/retest zone and above daily pivot P ~4.159) for better risk-adjusted exposure. Alternative: momentum buy-stop above 4.246 to catch the 4.25 clearance.
• Stop (discretionary, not part of requested fields): Below 4.09–4.10 (hourly demand and prior base); suggested stop ~4.088 to avoid noise. Risk ≈ 0.117 from a 4.205 entry.
• Take-profit aim: Pivot R2 magnet at ~4.383, front-run fills slightly. R:R from 4.205→4.382 target ≈ 1.5–1.9 depending on exact stop placement, with optional partial at 4.328–4.335 (prior swing high) and runners to 4.41–4.46 if momentum expands.

Conclusion and 24h price path

• Bias: Buy-the-dip or breakout long favored. Expect an attempt to resolve the 4.24–4.25 supply. Base case breakout reaches 4.33 with good odds to 4.38 within 24h, provided 4.18–4.20 holds on retests. Invalidation on a firm H1 close below 4.10.