ORDI pivots higher: setup for a 24h push toward 4.36 (R2/Fibo confluence)

ORDI (USD) – Multi-timeframe Technical Playbook and 24h Path Projection

1. Market Structure and Context

• Primary trend (since early Oct): Downtrend from ~8.9 to the Dec 18 low at ~3.651, punctuated by high-volatility events (notably Oct 10 flash-wick). Since mid-December, the market has transitioned into a base-building phase with higher lows and capped rallies.
• Current regime (late Dec): Sideways-to-slightly-bullish range between ~4.03 and ~4.28, with today’s intraday action reclaiming the daily pivot and forming higher lows into the close. Current price 4.188 is above the 20D mean and near intraday VWAP, suggesting short-term buyers have the tape.

2. Timeframe Alignment

• Daily: Stabilization above the 20-day moving average with a sequence of higher lows from Dec 21 (3.828), Dec 29 (4.093), and today’s intraday low (4.027). Resistance remains 4.28–4.37.
• 4h/1h: Clear micro up-structure today: 16:00 low 4.071 → 18:00 low 4.029 → 19:00 rally to 4.106 → 21:00 push to 4.19. Price finished near session highs, hinting at continuation toward 4.28.

3. Moving Averages (Trend Filters)

• 20D SMA ≈ 4.10 (approx from last 21 closes). Price = 4.188 > 20D SMA → short-term bullish bias.
• 50D SMA (approx): above price (mid-to-high 4s) after the Oct–Nov distribution; medium-term trend still down. A classic mean-reversion/early trend reversal context: short-term strength inside broader bearish regime.
• EMAs (10/20/50 daily): 10D and 20D EMAs curling higher and beneath price; 50D EMA still overhead resistance. On the 1h chart, price is above the 20/50 EMAs into the close → intraday momentum positive.

4. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily: Neutral-to-slightly constructive (around 50). After bouncing off sub-40 mid-month, RSI is stabilizing, consistent with a basing process.
• RSI(14) 1h: Prints mid-50s to low-60s after the evening thrust – momentum building without being overbought; room to tag 4.28–4.37 before risk of exhaustion.
• MACD Daily: Histogram near flat to slightly positive; signal line attempting a bullish cross from below – early-stage turn.
• MACD 1h: Positive with expanding histogram on the late-session rally, supports continuation into the upper range band (4.28 first, 4.37 second).
• Stochastic (Daily): Mid-range (≈50–60), no divergence – allows for additional upside within a range regime.

5. Volatility and Bands

• ATR(14) Daily: ~0.22–0.28, consistent with a 24h range potential of roughly ±5–7% from the mean. This accommodates a move toward 4.28 (R1) or 4.37 (R2) within a day.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily: Price reclaimed the middle band (~4.10) and rode it higher; bandwidth has been compressing through late December, suggesting a coiled state with potential for a directional push. Upper band neighborhood aligns with mid-4.3s (4.30–4.35) – confluence with tomorrow’s R1/R2.

6. Volume/Flow and OBV

• Volume profile (Dec): Declining post-selloff turnover with occasional spikes on reversals; late December shows contracting volume during consolidation – typical pre-break move.
• OBV (qualitative): Stabilized and slightly rising over recent sessions, agreeing with higher lows in price.
• Today’s intraday: Healthy participation into the NY afternoon ramp (21:00 hour volume leading the day), often a good sign for follow-through during the next session’s early hours.

7. Intraday VWAP, Pivot, and Microstructure

• VWAP (today): Roughly in the 4.14–4.17 zone. Current price 4.188 is above VWAP → buyers control the session into the close.
• Classic Daily Pivots (derived from today’s range; H ≈ 4.2455, L ≈ 4.0268, C ≈ 4.1880): • Pivot P ≈ 4.1534 • R1 ≈ 4.2801 • S1 ≈ 4.0614 • R2 ≈ 4.3721 • S2 ≈ 3.9347
• Price is closing above P and is positioned between P and R1. In range regimes with a bullish lean, tomorrow’s magnet levels are R1 then R2.
• Tape action: Higher lows throughout the US afternoon; momentum into the fix. Microstructure favors a squeeze through 4.23–4.25 toward 4.28 if overhead supply is thin at the open.

8. Ichimoku (Daily, qualitative)

• Price near/above Tenkan (~4.16) and around Kijun (~4.15–4.18). A close above both, with a flat Kijun, often acts as a magnet to the next resistance (4.28). Cloud ahead remains thin/flat near current levels; thin cloud = easier passage if momentum persists.

9. Fibonacci and Level Confluence

• Swing Dec 18 low (3.651) to Dec 27 local high (4.281): 50% retrace ≈ 3.966 and 61.8% ≈ 4.070; today’s low 4.027 respected the golden pocket zone before reversing → constructive.
• Swing Dec 18 low (3.651) to Dec 16 spike high (4.846): 38.2% ≈ 4.107, 50% ≈ 4.249, 61.8% ≈ 4.393. Current price has reclaimed 38.2% and may test 50% (4.249) on a break through 4.23; R2 (4.372) aligns with the 61.8% neighborhood.
• Horizontal S/R map: • Supports: 4.03–4.06 (today’s S1 cluster), 3.93–3.97 (S2/late-Dec value area), 3.65 (major swing low) • Resistances: 4.23–4.25 (micro supply), 4.28 (R1/late-Dec high), 4.37 (R2/Fibo confluence), 4.56 (Dec 16 spike)

10. Pattern Recognition

• Ascending triangle variant: Rising lows into a relatively flat cap around 4.28. Such structures in low ADX environments often resolve with a measured push equal to the height (~0.25–0.30), giving a breakout objective near 4.53–4.58. For the next 24h, the feasible segment is the approach into 4.28 and possibly an extension to 4.37.
• Candlesticks (Daily): Today’s candle exhibits a lower-tail recovery (intraday dip to ~4.03 reversed back above 4.18). This “hammer-like” recovery above the daily pivot is a short-term bullish continuation tell.

11. Trend Strength (ADX/DMI)

• ADX (Daily) is likely sub-20 after extended chop → range-trading conditions. In such regimes, trading from pivot toward R1/R2 on the long side when price closes above P tends to have positive expectancy.

12. Statistical/MRV Lens

• Mean-reversion vs momentum: With price above VWAP and the daily pivot, the positive skew favors a push to R1 first. Assuming ATR ~0.25, a 24h move from 4.19 to 4.28–4.37 fits one ATR to 1.5 ATRs, feasible without external catalysts.
• Expected path (base case probabilities): • Bullish continuation to 4.28, potential tag of 4.33–4.37: 55% • Range-bound chop 4.08–4.28 without decisive breakout: 30% • Bearish breakdown below 4.06 toward 3.93: 15%

13. Risk, Invalidation, and Execution

• Long setup A (mean-reversion entry): Buy pullback into 4.15–4.17 (daily pivot/VWAP). Invalidation below 4.06 (S1 break/failed structure). Target 4.36 (near R2/Fibo confluence). R:R ≈ 1.8–2.0.
• Long setup B (momentum entry): Buy the breakout through 4.23–4.25 on volume expansion. Invalidation 4.13–4.14 (back below VWAP/pivot). Target 4.36–4.37. R:R ≈ 1.7–1.9.
• Position sizing: Use ATR-based sizing; 1 ATR ≈ 0.25, set stop ~0.10–0.13 below entry to keep risk controlled while allowing normal volatility.

14. Synthesis and 24h Price Projection

• Confluences supporting a long: Above 20D MA and daily pivot; intraday higher lows; bullish 1h MACD; RSI neutral with room; pivot map points to R1 then R2; fib 50% at 4.249 and R1 at 4.280 attract.
• Headwinds: 50D MA/EMA still overhead; broader downtrend context; ADX low (breakouts can fail). If 4.06 fails, the move likely reverts to 3.93–3.97.
• Projection (next 24h): Bias upward toward 4.28 with a realistic extension to 4.33–4.37 if momentum persists.

Actionable Plan (what I will do)

• Primary plan: Place a buy limit at 4.165 (pivot/VWAP pullback) with a target at 4.36.
• If no pullback: Consider a secondary momentum buy stop at 4.235, same target 4.36.
• For risk control (not required in output fields but recommended): Stop loss at 4.055 (below S1 and today’s structure), giving a favorable R:R.

Decision: Buy. Targeting 4.36 within 24 hours, with tactical management near 4.28 in case of hesitation at R1.