ORDI Price Analysis Powered by AI

ORDI coiled for a New Year continuation: dip-buy setup aiming at 4.70 within 24 hours

Timeframes and data used

Dataset: Daily OHLCV from 2025-10-05 through 2026-01-01, intraday (hourly) through 2026-01-02 21:58 UTC. Current price: 4.5591.
Primary lenses: Daily trend/momentum/volatility for context; 1h for timing and 24h path; 15–60 min microstructure inferred from 1h bars and VWAP behavior.

Regime shift: After a prolonged drawdown from early October (8–9 area) to a December low (~3.651 on Dec 18), ORDI carved a rounded base and broke higher into year-end. The December pivot stack built between 3.83–4.23 now acts as a layered support zone.
Higher lows sequence: 3.651 (Dec 18) → 3.828 (Dec 21) → 3.936 (Dec 22) → 4.093 (Dec 29) → 4.154 (Dec 31) → 4.509 (Jan 1 close). This is a constructive staircase pattern.
Current inflection: Price is pressing the 4.55–4.58 shelf; a sustained push through 4.58 opens room into 4.62/4.70; rejection risks a retest of 4.51–4.53 first support.

Daily SMA20 ≈ 4.11 (computed from last 20 daily closes). Price trades well above the 20SMA, indicating bullish short-term momentum.
Daily SMA50 (est.) ≈ 4.40–4.50 range given the November/December profile; current price is at/above SMA50, confirming a transition from mean to uptrend on the intermediate frame.
Daily SMA200 (est.) still above price (likely near ~5), maintaining a longer-term downtrend context; near-term is a countertrend rally turning into early uptrend.
EMA crossovers: 9EMA > 21EMA (est. 9EMA ~4.28–4.32; 21EMA ~4.10–4.15), a short-term bullish alignment.
1h trend: 20EMA > 50EMA; higher highs/lows intraday. Price trades above intraday VWAP, maintaining trend integrity.

Daily RSI(14): Rising into the mid-to-high 50s (est. ~57–60) after a two-week advance; no overbought extremes; confirms momentum without blow-off risk.
1h RSI(14): Upper half (~60–65) and hugging bullish range. Pullbacks that reset RSI toward 50 have been bought.
Stochastic (1h): Elevated but not diverging; in a trend, overbought readings can persist. No clear bearish divergence against price highs.

Daily ATR(14): ~0.30–0.40. Implies typical 24h swing of ±0.3–0.4 around the mean; sufficient room for a 4.65–4.70 test from current levels.
Bollinger Bands (Daily): Middle ~4.11, upper ~4.67 (est. stdev ~0.28). Price is edging toward the upper band without a strong band ride yet. Room remains before a stretched condition.
Keltner Channel (Daily): Price approaching outer envelope; early trend behavior, not extended.

Accumulation signs: OBV trend constructive since Dec 18; Jan 1 showed above-average volume on a green close (4.509), a hallmark of demand returning.
Intraday volume: Bumps at 12:00 and 14:00 UTC supported pushes to 4.56–4.57; pullbacks on lighter volume. Price > VWAP most of the session—a trend day bias.

Major supports: 3.65 (swing low), 3.83–3.94 (multi-day base), 4.00–4.15 (fib/MA confluence), 4.22–4.28 (recent pivot band), 4.51–4.53 (today’s intraday shelf and 1h MA cluster).
Near resistances: 4.58 (intraday cap), 4.62 (local supply from Dec mid), 4.70–4.71 (Dec 15 intraday vicinity), 4.78–4.80 (R2/past spikes).
Volume profile read: High participation around 4.10–4.25; thinner profile between 4.55–4.70 suggests potential for faster motion if 4.58 breaks and holds.

From 3.651 (Dec 18 low) to 4.559 (current): Move ≈ 0.908. Key retracements from this leg: 38.2% ≈ 4.22; 50% ≈ 4.105; 61.8% ≈ 3.99. These align with historical supports, strengthening the 4.10–4.22 demand zone.
Inverse H&S construct: Left shoulder ~3.83 (Dec 21), Head ~3.65 (Dec 18), Right shoulder ~3.84–3.99 (Dec 23–24), Neckline ~4.15–4.20 broke on Dec 26. Measured target adds ~0.5 to neckline → 4.65–4.70, matching current tactical target band.

Daily MACD: Bullish crossover underway with rising histogram since late December; signal > 0 region likely imminent, consistent with momentum continuation.
1h MACD: Positive and slightly flattening—typical right before a brief consolidation or a minor dip-buy opportunity.

Price above Tenkan and Kijun (Tenkan ≈ mid 4.3s; Kijun ≈ low 4.1s). Cloud ahead is likely thin; a push through 4.58–4.62 would keep price above the cloud span on lower timeframes, aiding trend continuation.

Using Jan 1 data (H ≈ 4.544, L ≈ 4.154, C = 4.509): Pivot P ≈ 4.402; R1 ≈ 4.650; R2 ≈ 4.792; S1 ≈ 4.260; S2 ≈ 4.012. Current price is between P and R1 with upside room to R1 (4.65), aligning with technical targets.

Daily: Jan 1 closed strong near highs (bullish continuation). Recent candles show higher lows with controlled upper wicks—constructive.
Hourly: Series of higher lows, shallow pullbacks to the 20EMA, and closes near the top third of the range—trend day characteristics. No authoritative selling tails at the current level.

Base case (probability ~60%): Brief consolidation/dip toward 4.52–4.54, then a measured push through 4.58 to test 4.62, with an extension toward 4.68–4.70 if momentum/volume persist. ATR supports this magnitude.
Upside extension (probability ~20%): A clean breakout with band expansion propels price to 4.74–4.78 (near R2 cluster) if 4.70 converts to support quickly.
Downside risk (probability ~20%): Failure to hold 4.51–4.53 triggers a deeper mean-revert to 4.43–4.46 and possibly 4.28–4.31 if momentum stalls. This still keeps the higher-timeframe structure intact unless 4.22 fails.

Thesis: Short-term uptrend with improving breadth and momentum, supported by a completed base and neckline break. Nearby resistance is defined but not dominant; a dip-buy provides favorable R/R into a 4.68–4.70 target, which coincides with the inverse H&S measured move and R1 proximity.
Entry (optimal): Buy the dip at 4.535 (limit) near intraday support/VWAP vicinity; alternative is a breakout add above 4.585 on volume.
Target: 4.695 (front-run of 4.70 round number/target band), capturing the meat of the move within ATR constraints.
Invalidation/stop (operational guidance): Below 4.47 (beneath 1h swing and VWAP cluster). Risk ≈ 0.065 vs. reward ≈ 0.160 → R/R ≈ 2.5.
Position management: If filled and price reclaims/holds above 4.58 with rising volume, trail a stop to just under 4.53. If 4.62 prints and momentum stalls, consider partials to lock in gains; allow balance to run to 4.695.

Upper-band tagging could cause brief mean reversion; this plan accommodates a small dip. Watch for a sudden surge in sell volume near 4.58–4.62; repeated rejections on heavy volume would argue for tighter risk.
If 4.51 fails decisively, patience is warranted for the 4.43/4.31 demand tests rather than averaging down.

Structure, momentum, and volume support a constructive 24h outlook. The most efficient expression is a buy-the-dip near 4.535 with a tactical target at 4.695. Probability-weighted path favors an upside test toward 4.65–4.70 barring unexpected supply shocks.