Tradzar
Pudgy Penguins Price Analysis Powered by AI
PENGU at a Pivot: Liquidity Sweep Reversal Signals a 24h Push Toward $0.0102
Market snapshot (PENGU)
- Current price: 0.0098453
- Timeframe provided: Daily candles (2025-10-30 → 2026-01-27) + intraday hourly (last ~24h)
- Regime: Larger downtrend since late Oct, but recent basing/mean-reversion bounce in the last ~1–2 weeks.
1) Multi-timeframe trend & structure
A) Daily trend (primary)
- From 0.0211 (Oct 30 open) to ~0.00985 now: roughly -53% drawdown over the dataset → clear bear market structure (lower highs/lower lows).
- Notable impulse up early Jan:
- Jan 2–6: strong rally (close from ~0.01081 to ~0.01336) with very high volume (270M → 388M), then distribution and breakdown.
- Since mid/late Jan:
- Price carved a local low zone around 0.00918–0.00946 (Jan 20–26 area), then bounced to 0.00964–0.00985.
Conclusion (daily): Macro bias still bearish-to-neutral, but short-term recovery from a support base is underway.
B) Hourly trend (tactical)
- Intraday lows printed near 0.009336 (14:00 hour) followed by a strong recovery to 0.00988–0.00991 (20:00–21:00 hours).
- Sequence shows:
- Early hours: drift down to ~0.00948–0.00956
- Midday: flush to ~0.00934
- Late day: impulsive rebound to ~0.00990
Conclusion (hourly): Momentum turned bullish after a liquidity sweep; buyers defended the lower wick zone and pushed price back toward the top of the intraday range.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action)
Key supports
- 0.00933–0.00945 (hourly sweep + multiple hourly prints; also aligns with late-Jan chop)
- 0.00918–0.00920 (daily low region on Jan 25/26 area)
- 0.00865–0.00890 (late Dec / early Jan base)
Key resistances
- 0.00990–0.00992 (intraday peak zone; repeated attempts)
- 0.01020–0.01028 (prior daily closes around Jan 21–24; visible supply)
- 0.01070–0.01095 (Jan 18 breakdown + Jan 2 launch area; stronger supply)
Implication: At 0.009845 price is pressing into near resistance (0.00990–0.00992). Upside is available, but the next 24h likely includes a retest/pullback before any clean breakout.
3) Candlestick & pattern read
Daily candles
- Jan 25: strong down day (close 0.00919) → capitulation-like push into support.
- Jan 26: rebound day (close 0.009644) with higher high than prior close → recovery.
- Jan 27 (partial/day so far): close near 0.009845 and near day’s high range, suggesting buyers kept control into the end of the sampled period.
Hourly pattern
- Looks like a classic liquidity sweep (drop to 0.00933) followed by V-recovery and consolidation near highs.
Implication: Short-term bullish bias, but late buyers are vulnerable if price fails to clear 0.00992.
4) Momentum & mean reversion (RSI-style inference)
(Exact RSI not computed, but behavior inferred from sequence and ranges.)
- The midday flush and subsequent strong rebound usually corresponds to an oversold → reversion move on lower TFs.
- Current price sitting near the upper intraday band suggests short-term RSI likely elevated vs. earlier today.
Implication: Probability favors a pullback/retest (0.00965–0.00975) rather than immediate vertical continuation—unless a breakout above 0.00992 holds.
5) Volatility & range analysis (ATR-style inference)
Daily ranges recently
- Jan 26 daily range: ~0.00981 - 0.009184 ≈ 0.000627 (~6.5%)
- Jan 27 daily range so far: ~0.009912 - 0.009353 ≈ 0.000559 (~5.7%)
So a typical 24h swing right now is around 5–7%.
Implication: A realistic next-24h path can revisit 0.00965 even in a bullish scenario, and still be “normal.”
6) Volume read
- Daily: major volume spikes on selloffs and on early-Jan rally days → classic speculative cycle.
- Intraday: visible volume spikes (e.g., 7.45M at 20:00 hour) coinciding with the push toward 0.00990.
Implication: The late-day push had participation; that supports continuation, but also can mark a local exhaustion if follow-through fails.
7) Scenario framework (next 24 hours)
Base case (most likely): bullish continuation after a retest
- Pullback from 0.00985 into 0.00965–0.00975 (retest of broken intraday structure)
- Buyers defend; price pushes again to 0.00995–0.01020
Bull case: breakout and hold above 0.00992
- If price accepts above 0.00992 and retests it as support, next magnet is 0.01020–0.01028 quickly.
Bear case: rejection at 0.00990–0.00992
- Failure to break + loss of 0.00965 can send price back to 0.00945, and possibly 0.00920.
Net forecast (24h): Mild bullish bias with volatility; expectation is range expansion toward 0.01010–0.01025 after (or alongside) a 0.00965–0.00975 retest.
8) Trade decision (direction + optimal entry)
Because current price is already at resistance, the best risk-adjusted approach is not to buy market here; instead, buy on pullback to support.
- Decision: Buy (Long)
- Optimal open area: 0.00970 (mid of the likely retest zone; below current price, near prior hourly consolidation)
- Take-profit / close target: 0.01022 (first meaningful daily supply zone; aligns with prior closes 0.01021–0.01028)
This structure aims to capture the mean-reversion continuation while avoiding buying directly into 0.00990–0.00992 supply.
Note: This is technical-probabilistic, not guaranteed. Use position sizing and a protective stop (not requested) especially given typical 5–7% daily swings.