Pudgy Penguins Price Analysis Powered by AI

PENGU at Risk of a Support Retest: Failed Intraday Bounce Signals Another Leg Down

Market snapshot (PENGU)

Current price: $0.007262
Data used: Daily candles (2025-11-07 → 2026-02-04) + intraday hourly candles (2026-02-03 22:00 → 2026-02-04 21:57)
Regime: Strong multi-week downtrend; last ~24h shows a weak rebound attempt that failed into overhead resistance.

1) Multi-timeframe trend analysis

Daily structure (primary trend)

From early Jan highs (~$0.0137) to late Jan / early Feb lows (~$0.0072) price has roughly halved, forming a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
The Jan 31 breakdown candle (low ~0.007207, close ~0.007786) is a classic trend-acceleration event: prior support (around 0.0086–0.0090) failed, and subsequent days could not reclaim it.
Current price (~0.00726) is sitting just above the recent swing low zone (~0.00720–0.00714), meaning:
- downside risk remains (any support failure can cascade)
- upside is capped by multiple layers of prior supply.

Intraday (last 24h) structure (execution timeframe)

Hourly chart printed a local low near 0.007073 (17:00) followed by a sharp bounce to 0.007456 (19:00) and then immediate fade back toward ~0.00726.
That bounce-fade sequence typically indicates short-covering / liquidity sweep rather than genuine trend reversal: price tested higher liquidity, then supply overwhelmed demand.

Trend conclusion:

Daily: bearish trend intact.
Hourly: mean-reversion bounce occurred, but follow-through failed → bearish bias remains.

2) Support / resistance mapping (price action + market memory)

Key supports

$0.00720–$0.00714 (recent daily/hourly lows)
- If this breaks on volume, next stop is psychological and vacuum area.
~$0.00700 (round number + likely liquidity pool)
- A break below 0.0070 often triggers stops in microcaps.

Key resistances (stacked overhead supply)

$0.00745–$0.00760 (intraday bounce high + repeated hourly pivots)
~$0.00780–$0.00785 (daily 2026-02-02 close ~0.007809; prior support → now resistance)
$0.00860–$0.00900 (major former base; likely heavy distribution zone)

Implication: price is currently closer to support than resistance, but the nearest meaningful resistance (0.00745–0.00760) is close enough to be used as an efficient short entry area.

3) Momentum & rate-of-change (qualitative from closes)

The downtrend from mid-Jan to end-Jan shows persistent negative momentum.
The last few daily closes (Jan 31 → Feb 4) indicate stabilization, but not reversal:
- 0.007786 → 0.007545 → 0.007809 → 0.007385 → 0.007262
Net: lower close sequence after failing to hold 0.0078 suggests bear flag / consolidation before continuation.

4) Volatility & range behavior (risk context)

Daily ranges expanded significantly during the selloff (late Jan), then compressed into early Feb.
Intraday range today roughly: 0.007073 low to 0.007610 high (~7.6% swing).
Compression after expansion often precedes another impulse move; with trend bearish, odds favor impulse lower unless price reclaims key resistances.

5) Candlestick & pattern read

Daily

Large breakdown day (Jan 31) followed by weak corrective candles that failed to recover broken structure.
No clear bullish reversal signature (no strong engulfing reclaiming prior support zones).

Hourly

Impulse up (17:00→19:00) then distribution fade (19:00→21:00) back to near open levels.
This resembles a dead-cat bounce or bull trap into 0.00745–0.00760 supply.

6) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): drift-to-down / retest lows

Expect retest of $0.00720–$0.00714.
If that zone breaks, probability increases for a quick move toward ~$0.00700.

Alternative case: relief bounce

If buyers defend 0.00720 and reclaim 0.00745, price could revisit 0.00760–0.00780.
However, given the broader downtrend and the failed bounce today, this is less likely without a strong catalyst.

Directional call (24h): mildly-to-moderately bearish, with a likely retest of local support.

7) Trade plan logic (why Sell)

Dominant timeframe (daily) trend is bearish.
Intraday bounce already tagged a nearby supply zone (0.00745–0.00760) and failed.
Risk/reward for shorts is favorable: overhead resistance is close (clear invalidation), while downside has room to 0.00714 → 0.00700.

Suggested levels

Optimal open (Sell/Short): place near resistance to improve R:R.
- Prefer $0.00750 (within the 0.00745–0.00760 supply band).
Take-profit / close: target the support retest.
- $0.00705 (front-run the 0.00700 psychological level and likely liquidity).

(Note: If price never bounces back to ~0.00750, a secondary/less optimal entry would be a breakdown-and-retest under ~0.00720, but the request asks for a single optimal open price.)