Pudgy Penguins Price Analysis Powered by AI

PENGU After Capitulation: Bullish Rebound Setup Targeting the 0.0072–0.00735 Supply Zone

Market snapshot (PENGU)

Current price: 0.0066952
Timeframe provided: Daily candles from 2025-11-16 to 2026-02-13 + intraday 1H candles into 2026-02-13 21:57.
Regime: Large multi-week downtrend followed by a sharp capitulation and a short-term rebound (mean-reversion bounce).

1) Multi-timeframe trend analysis (structure)

Daily structure (swing trend)

From early January’s peak region (~0.0137) price has been in a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Key breakdown leg: 2026-01-29 → 2026-02-05 where price slides from ~0.009–0.0086 down to a low near 0.005935 (capitulation day 2/5).
Since the 2/5 washout, daily closes show a bounce:
- 2/5 close ~0.005972
- 2/6 close ~0.006725
- 2/12 close ~0.006296
- 2/13 close/last ~0.006695
Interpretation: Primary trend remains bearish, but short-term trend has turned up from the capitulation low.

Intraday structure (1H)

The 1H series shows a base and then impulsive push:
- Early hours held around 0.00616–0.00630.
- Strong expansion around 15:00–19:00 with highs near 0.00679.
- Last hours are holding near highs (~0.00669) rather than collapsing.
This “push + hold” behavior is typically consistent with trend continuation short-term, unless the local resistance rejects strongly.

Net takeaway: Daily = rebound within downtrend; 1H = bullish momentum currently intact.

2) Support / resistance mapping (price action)

Major supports

0.00593–0.00605: capitulation low zone (2/5 low ~0.005935). If price returns here, it signals the bounce failed.
0.00615–0.00630: intraday base and multiple 1H opens/closes clustered here (value area).
0.00662–0.00665: minor pivot on 1H (pullbacks held above/around this after the impulse).

Major resistances

0.00679–0.00680: intraday high area (recent top). First meaningful resistance.
0.00720–0.00735: prior daily breakdown zone (late Jan / early Feb). This is the next “sell wall” region if momentum continues.
0.00780–0.00800: prior rebound area (2/2–2/3 region) and psychological round zone.

Net takeaway: Upside is “clean” to ~0.00680 first, then a thicker resistance band 0.0072–0.00735.

3) Volatility & range logic (ATR-like reasoning)

The daily candles during the selloff and reversal show large ranges, meaning volatility is elevated.
After 2/5, the market printed a strong reversal day (2/6) and then consolidated; this often precedes another expansion move.
On 1H, the impulse from ~0.00632 to ~0.00679 implies an intraday expansion of roughly 7–8% peak-to-trough.

Implication for next 24h: Expect wide swings; direction likely follows the short-term momentum unless 0.00662 breaks decisively.

4) Volume / participation (what it suggests)

Daily volume

Selloff day 2/5 has very high volume (~270M) = capitulation / forced selling signature.
Bounce day 2/6 also very high volume (~236M) = demand response.
2/13 volume (~87M) is lower than those extremes but still meaningful; price is up on the day, suggesting continued accumulation rather than only a dead-cat bounce.

Intraday volume

Noticeable burst at 15:00 (multi-million) aligning with the breakout impulse. That’s typically initiative buying.

Implication: Participation supports the bounce; not purely illiquid drift.

5) Pattern recognition (classical technicals)

Capitulation → rebound → base: 2/5 low then multi-day stabilization and now a push higher.
Potential bear flag vs. reversal base:
- If price fails under 0.0068 and rolls back through 0.0063, the structure can morph into a bear flag continuation.
- If price holds 0.0063–0.0065 and breaks 0.0068, it looks more like a short-term reversal base targeting the next resistance band (0.0072–0.00735).

Given current “hold near highs,” the probability slightly favors the break/continuation upward scenario in the next 24 hours.

6) Momentum (RSI/MACD-style inference without exact calc)

After a multi-week downtrend and a sharp dump to 0.00593, momentum likely reached oversold on daily.
The last several daily closes rising from ~0.00597 to ~0.00670 indicates positive momentum shift.
On 1H, the move is impulsive and then consolidative, typical of momentum continuation.

Implication: Momentum favors up over the next session unless the breakout area is rejected.

7) Scenario forecast (next 24 hours)

Base case (higher probability): controlled continuation up

Price holds above 0.00662–0.00665 and retests 0.00679–0.00680.
If 0.00680 breaks with acceptance, price gravitates toward 0.00720–0.00735 (next daily supply).

Bear case: failed breakout / pullback to value

Rejection at 0.00679–0.00680 pushes price back to 0.00630–0.00615.
That would still be “healthy pullback” unless it breaks 0.00615; below that, odds increase of revisiting 0.00605 → 0.00593.

Directional call (24h): Mild-to-moderately bullish, with volatility; higher odds of testing 0.00680 and potentially extending to 0.0072 area.

8) Trade plan (optimal entry vs current price)

Because price is already near local highs, the best risk-adjusted approach is typically buying a pullback into support rather than chasing.

Preferred long entry zone: near 0.00662 (retest of breakout/mini-support).
- This is close enough to current price to plausibly fill, but not so high that you’re paying the top of the impulse candle.
Take-profit (24h objective): 0.00730 (into the next resistance band 0.0072–0.00735).

(If price does not pull back and instead breaks 0.00680 impulsively, the “optimal” entry would shift to a breakout retest around ~0.00678–0.00680, but per your requirement to set a single open price, the pullback entry is superior.)

Final synthesis

Primary trend: down (daily)
Current swing: up from capitulation low (daily)
Intraday: bullish impulse + consolidation near highs
Resistance overhead: 0.0068 then 0.0072–0.00735
Therefore, for the next 24 hours, the edge slightly favors Long (Buy) via pullback entry.