Tradzar
Pudgy Penguins Price Analysis Powered by AI
PENGU Breakout Ignites: Base-to-Rally Setup Targets a Fresh 0.0084 Extension
Market snapshot (PENGU)
- Current price: 0.0079645
- Timeframe provided: Daily (Nov→Feb) + intraday hourly (last ~24h)
- Key context: A strong intraday breakout is occurring after a multi-week downtrend from early January highs.
1) Multi-timeframe trend analysis
A) Daily structure (primary trend)
- From 2026-01-06 high ~0.01377 to 2026-02-05 low ~0.005935, price put in a clear bear trend (lower highs / lower lows).
- After 02-05, price began stabilizing and forming a base:
- 02-06 close ~0.006725
- 02-12 close ~0.006296
- 02-13 close ~0.006645
- Today (02-14) daily candle so far: open ~0.006645, high ~0.008111, close/current ~0.007964.
- That’s a large bullish expansion candle off the base, often signaling a regime shift from “sell rallies” to “buy dips”—at least short-term.
Interpretation: Daily trend is still “down” in the bigger picture (since January), but a short-term trend reversal attempt is underway.
B) Hourly structure (execution trend)
Over the last ~24 hours, the hourly sequence shows:
- Early grind up from ~0.00665 → ~0.00710
- Then a momentum leg: ~0.00724 → ~0.00749 → ~0.00761 → ~0.00787
- Minor pullbacks were shallow (e.g., 19:00 candle dipped but held above prior structure).
- Latest hour printed 0.00811 high and is holding near 0.00796.
Interpretation: Hourly trend is strongly bullish, with buyers defending higher lows.
2) Support/Resistance mapping (price action + pivots)
Nearby supports
Using intraday swing points:
- S1: 0.00785–0.00787 (prior breakout zone around the 18:00–20:00 region)
- S2: 0.00760–0.00762 (prior impulsive close region at 17:00)
- S3: 0.00724–0.00730 (launch area of the acceleration)
Nearby resistances
- R1: 0.00811–0.00812 (today’s intraday high)
- R2: 0.00835–0.00845 (measured-move extension zone; also psychologically next step above 0.0081)
- R3: 0.00870–0.00880 (daily context: prior late-Dec/early-Jan trading zone; also round-number magnet)
Key takeaway: Price is currently pressing into R1. If R1 breaks cleanly, next upside likely “air pocket” toward ~0.00835–0.00845.
3) Momentum & volatility (what today’s candle implies)
Range expansion / volatility regime
- Today’s daily range is roughly 0.00661 → 0.00811 (~+22% from low to high).
- After a base, this type of range expansion typically precedes either:
- Continuation for another 12–48h (buyers follow through), or
- A quick mean-reversion pullback to retest breakout levels.
Given the structure (multiple higher highs, shallow pullbacks), probability slightly favors continuation first, then retest.
Volume confirmation (available where non-zero)
- Daily volume today is very elevated (164M) relative to many recent days, consistent with a breakout day.
- Hourly volume spikes cluster during the push from ~0.00749 upward, aligning with impulse participation.
Interpretation: This looks more like demand-driven expansion than a thin liquidity wick.
4) Pattern-based setups
A) Base → breakout (accumulation to markup)
02-06 through 02-13 resembles an accumulation band (~0.0060–0.0068). 02-14 breaks upward decisively.
- Classic play: buy the retest of breakout area (0.00760–0.00785) if it holds.
B) “Impulse + flag” on the hourly
- Impulse: ~0.00724 → ~0.00787
- Consolidation: ~0.00784–0.00790
- Attempted breakout: tagged ~0.00811
If price holds above ~0.00785, odds of another attempt at 0.00811 increase.
5) Fibonacci & measured-move logic (practical targets)
Anchoring from the recent swing low to high:
- Swing low (intraday) ~0.00661, swing high ~0.00811.
- A typical pullback zone is 38.2%–50% retrace of the impulse:
- 38.2%: ~0.00754
- 50%: ~0.00736 But note: strong breakouts often don’t retrace that deep; they retest nearer the breakout shelf:
- Retest shelf: 0.00775–0.00787.
Measured move from the smaller consolidation band (~0.00784–0.00790) projecting above 0.00811 gives a near-term extension toward roughly:
- 0.00830–0.00845.
6) 24-hour forward bias (scenario forecast)
Base case (higher probability): bullish continuation with shallow pullback
- Expect an initial retest/pullback into 0.00780–0.00788, then another push to re-break 0.00811.
- If 0.00811 breaks with acceptance, price likely trades 0.00830–0.00845 within 24h.
Bear/risk case (lower probability): breakout fades back into range
- Failure to hold 0.00760–0.00762 increases odds of mean reversion back toward 0.00730 and possibly 0.00695–0.00705.
Net 24h expectation: Upward drift / continuation bias, but likely with at least one pullback after today’s sharp move.
Trading plan (decision + optimal entry)
Given the strong hourly uptrend + daily breakout from a base:
- Bias: Long continuation
- Best risk-adjusted entry: not at the current local high; instead place a bid near the breakout retest zone.
Entry (Open Price)
- Open (Buy) at: 0.00784
- Rationale: aligns with the breakout shelf (~0.00785–0.00787) and reduces chasing risk.
Take profit (Close Price)
- Close (take profit) at: 0.00842
- Rationale: near the next extension zone / measured move above 0.00811, while still realistic for 24h.
(If price never pulls back to 0.00784 and instead breaks 0.00811 strongly, the better “momentum entry” would be on a confirmed hold above ~0.00812—but per your request for an optimal open price, the retest entry is preferable.)
Important: This is a technical, probability-based view from limited data (no order book, no broader crypto market context). Use position sizing and a stop consistent with your risk limits.