Step 1: Long-Term Trend Analysis

Looking at the daily chart data from March to the present, PNUT went through multiple distinct price regimes:

• March–early May 2025: Mostly trading between $0.12 and $0.22, volatility remained low, and there was no clear upward or downward structure — suggesting a consolidating range with modest downtrends.
• Early May Surge: On 2025-05-08, we see an explosive rally ($0.158 → $0.219), then a parabolic rise with record volume to $0.417 on 2025-05-09 and $0.462 on 2025-05-11. High volumes here confirm trend exhaustion at the peaks.
• Sharp Correction Phase: The extreme highs above $0.44 quickly reverse to $0.32–$0.35 by mid-late May—classic post-parabolic retracement.
• Recent Period: From 2025-05-25 onward, a series of lower highs ($0.34, $0.33, $0.31) and lower lows, with the current price now at $0.26, indicating clear bearish momentum.

Step 2: Short-Term Price Action & Candlestick Analysis

• The latest bar (2025-05-30): Open $0.314, High $0.316, Low $0.255, Close $0.265 (sharp drop, high volume = high conviction selloff)
• A single day drop of over 15% confirms strong bearish pressure.
• The past 12 hourly candles show progressive downward price movements, minor bounces quickly sold down, and closes near lows, confirming distribution phase and demand exhaustion.

Step 3: Volume Analysis

• Volume on May 30 is elevated, especially on down candles, suggesting strong sellers in control.
• The post-peak consolidation lacked meaningful high-volume accumulation, suggesting institutional support is not entering at these levels yet.

Step 4: Moving Averages

• 20-day SMA: Estimate ($0.29-$0.31), price is now solidly below both 20/50-period SMAs. Classic confirmation of downtrend.
• 50-day SMA: $0.32 region (approx), downward slope.
• MA Crossovers: The 20 recently crossed below the 50 from above (“death cross”), a strong short-term bearish indicator.

Step 5: Support/Resistance Zones

• Key Supports Broken: $0.31 and $0.29 have been taken out in quick succession; the next major support sits at $0.22 (prior breakout area from May 8 surge), and prior support at $0.25 (pivot low March 2).
• Resistance: $0.31–$0.32 (recent swing lows); $0.34–$0.36 (congestion zone).

Step 6: Momentum Oscillators (RSI, Stochastics)

• RSI (14, estimate): Dropped from ~60 to ~30, entering oversold territory, but bear trends often see extended oversold readings.
• Stochastic: Would be deep in oversold, but no bullish divergence yet, confirming trend persistence.

Step 7: Fibonacci Retracement

• From the most recent surge high ($0.48) down to $0.26, the 78.6% retracement zone is at $0.29. Price failing to reclaim this suggests continued downside.

Step 8: Chart Patterns & Context

• Rising wedge breakdown following the parabolic move; confirmation with loss of $0.31 support.
• No double bottom/rounded bottom—nothing suggests reversal yet.
• No significant bullish reversal hammer/doji in last sessions.

Step 9: Order Flow/Market Profile

• Current tape shows consistent selling into small rallies; upward wicks are being sold, and bid liquidity is small (from volume breakdowns on major down candles).

Step 10: Scenario Synthesis & Probability-Weighted Prediction

• The bulk of evidence supports further near-term downside: strong supply-side volume, major support breaks, and bearish momentum structure suggest sellers will continue to overwhelm buyers in the next 24 hours.
• However, if price nears $0.22–$0.25, risk of short-term bounce increases due to historical demand in that area, oversold oscillators, and possible profit-taking by short sellers.

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Recommendation: SELL

• The dominant trend is strongly bearish with technical confirmation. Shorting remains the favorable risk/reward.
• Wait for any reactive bounce to $0.268–$0.27 (failed retest of breakdown area) to maximize entry, as aggressive chasers may drive a minor retracement.
• Set a profit target near $0.23—just above the major support, front-running likely short-covering. A much deeper flush is possible, but prudent risk management suggests partial profit there.

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Summary Table

Indicator	Signal
Trend	Strong Bearish
Volume	Bearish (rising)
MA (20/50)	Bearish below MAs
RSI/Stochastics	Oversold, but bears in control
Support/Resistance	Breaking support, lower targets
Pattern Context	Breakdown, NO reversal

Final note: If $0.22 breaks, further downside to $0.19 is possible. If a rapid reclaim of $0.29 occurs, exit short as sentiment could reverse sharply.