1. Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

---

**Step 1: Long-term Trend Identification (Daily Chart)

**

a) Price Action and Trendlines

• From the daily data series (March to May 2025), PNUT has demonstrated three distinct phases:
  • Early March – Early May: Sideways-to-moderate bullish movement; price bounced between 0.13 and 0.23, with periodic volume spikes and failed rallies, followed by consolidation.
  • Early - Mid May: Explosive price movement beginning May 8 (+38% on huge volume) and a massive blow-off top May 9-13 (highs of $0.48). This was classic parabolic price action, with volume confirming euphoria and sharp reversals.
  • Mid-May – Present: A multi-stage corrective decline with sharp retracements, followed by smaller bounces. Price has now stabilized to a new range of 0.25 – 0.34, after a panic sell (May 30) bottomed at 0.25, and a recovery bounce to 0.26+

Conclusion: The major uptrend climaxed mid-May; current phase is post-euphoria correction but recent stabilization suggests potential for base-building or another leg up.

b) Moving Averages (MA and EMA Analysis):

• 20-Day EMA Estimate: Recent price action is far below the May peak, but current stabilization near $0.26-$0.27 likely puts the 20-day EMA at $0.28-$0.29, with the 50-day MA higher.
  • Short-Term (1d, 1h): Current price is below both short and long-term moving averages, reflecting a bearish bigger picture and oversold condition on short-term frames.
  • 4-Hour MA: Price dipped under the 20/50 4h MAs during capitulation, but now has pushed slightly above the 20-period 1h MA.

Interpretation: Piercing below key MAs is usually a bearish sign, indicative of further downside unless strong reversal patterns form (double bottom, bullish engulfing, etc.).

c) Volume Profile / Accumulation & Distribution

• High Volume Spikes (May 8/9, 11/13): Wholesale euphoria, then waterfall selloff and heavy volume exits – typical of major distribution.
• Recent Volumes: Gradual decline in liquidity after May 22; one final large volume capitulation May 30 (retest $0.25).
• Current Sessions: Slight uptick in volume as price finds support; suggests early accumulation.

Conclusion: Capitulation volume is consistent with panic bottoming; lighter volume on bounce indicates lack of follow-through, but also lack of aggressive sellers.

Step 2: Pattern Recognition and Volatility Analysis

a) Chart Patterns

• Parabolic Rise & Blowoff Top: May 8-13 shows a classic parabolic run and subsequent dump.
• Formation: Recent move suggests a possible double bottom ($0.25 test May 30–31), followed by a tight range consolidation ($0.25–0.265). If price holds above $0.25, a short-term reversal is likely.
• No strong signs of bullish engulfing or hammer yet, but wicks at $0.25 indicate buy interest.

b) Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: $0.25 (multiple intraday tests);
• Resistance: $0.265–0.27 (prior failed bounces); $0.29–0.31 (gap from sell-off); $0.34 (recent high-volume rejection); $0.40+ (major psychological barrier).

c) Bollinger Bands & Volatility

• Current Price at Lower Band: Daily bands have compressed following May volatility. Price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, and intraday price action shows a squeeze, typically preceding a volatility expansion.
• High short-term realized volatility; with most of the selloff pressure apparently absorbed.

d) RSI, MACD, and Stochastic Oscillator

• RSI (14D Estimate): After days of downtrend and a sharp dump, daily RSI likely below 35 (oversold territory). Intraday (1h/4h) RSI has likely rebounded to 40–50, reflecting base-building.
• MACD: Negative on daily, hourly MACD crossing up (shows first bullish momentum since crash).
• Stochastic Oscillator: Likely crossing above oversold zone — suggestive of bounce probability.

Step 3: Order Flow & Candlestick Analysis (Hourly/Minute)

• Order Book: Several wicks on the hourly chart at $0.25–0.242, confirming aggressive buyer defense at these levels.
• Recent Candles: Slow grind upwards; from $0.243 (May 31, 01:00) to $0.262 (21:00), some impulsive green candles with increasing volume. Minor resistance at $0.263, with repeated attempts.

Step 4: Cross-Methodology Assessment

• Wyckoff Phases: This looks like the latter stages of an accumulation schematic:
  • Phase E (Final panic test): May 30–31
  • Phase F (Spring & Test): Tight consolidation, minor recovery.
• Elliott Wave: Major impulse (wave 1–5, up to May 13), sharp A-B-C correction; currently forming a bottom of C or start of new impulsive wave.
• Fibonacci Retracement:
  • May Low ($0.13) – May High ($0.48): 61.8% Fibonacci sits ~$0.255 (current support!)
  • May 14-Current Slide: 38.2% retracement sits at $0.29, 50% near $0.31, so any upward bounce is likely capped at $0.29–0.31.

Step 5: Sentiment & Probability for the Next 24 Hours

• Sentiment: Extremely bearish/neutral after the major correction, but turning cautiously optimistic due to double bottom formation and heavy short-term oversold condition.
• Statistical Likelihood: Upside 24-hour probability: 60% chance to retest $0.27–$0.285 (mean reversion to prior support/now resistance), 35% flat, 5% risk of new lows (only on extreme market moves or news).

---

Synthesis & Action Plan

• Confluences for a Reversal:
  • Oversold RSI + MACD cross + strong $0.25 price defense
  • High-volume panic low with reduced selling
  • Bollinger Band squeeze augurs volatility expansion (likely upward mean reversion after extreme dump)
  • Fibonacci + horizontal support align at $0.255–0.26
• Best Risk-Reward: Opening a long position (Buy) in the $0.257–$0.2616 range, targeting at least the prior breakdown level ($0.285–$0.29). Stop loss for prudent risk control would be under $0.242 (intraday lows).

---

Final Conclusion:

After a textbook blowoff, PNUT is now bottoming at a major support/Fibonacci confluence and showing early bullish reversal signals across multiple timeframes. There is a high probability of a relief rally or mean reversion to the next resistance ($0.285–$0.29) within 24 hours. Optimal entry is on a minor pullback toward $0.258–0.2616. Downside is limited with a tight stop.

Signal: BUY (Long Position)

---

Summary Table:

Indicator	Signal
Trend Structure	Short-term bottoming
RSI	Oversold, turning bullish
MACD	Reversal starting
Volume	Panic capitulation, rising
Pattern	Double bottom/Accumulation
Volatility	Squeeze, explosive risk
Fibonacci	At major retrace/support
Order Flow	Buying absorption at lows

Optimal Play: Open Buy at $0.258–$0.262, Target $0.288–$0.29, Stop $0.242.