Comprehensive Multi-Indicator Technical Analysis of Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Trend Analysis & Price Action

a) Macro Trend (Daily)

• From March through mid-May, PNUT exhibited a structural uptrend, moving from ~$0.18 to peaks exceeding $0.47 in a short volatility burst around May 11-14. This sharp rally was followed by a significant retracement, and the price has since consolidated in the $0.25-$0.35 range, with the last two weeks displaying a clear series of lower highs and lower lows.
• Since the reversal from the $0.47 top, the character of PNUT has decisively shifted bearish, confirmed by repeated inability to retake key resistance levels at ~$0.34 (previous support broken on May 24-26; now resistance).

b) Recent Price Behavior (Intraday)

• Over the last 24 hours, PNUT dropped from around $0.275 to $0.257. Each hour consistently set lower highs and lower lows.
• Trading volumes are moderate, but not climactic, suggesting the current decline is not panic-driven but more controlled distribution.

2. Moving Averages

• Short-Term EMA (20-period): Estimated around $0.27 (tracking last 20 hourly closes), currently above market price ➔ short-term bearish momentum.
• 50-period SMA: Calculated near $0.29–$0.30, far above current price ➔ medium-term momentum remains negative.
• 200-period SMA (approx.): Sits near $0.21, showing the long-term uptrend is unbroken, but in the nearer term, selling dominates.

3. Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: $0.266–$0.275 (minor; last breakdown zone)
• Major Resistance: $0.29–$0.30 (50SMA zone and prior breakdown from consolidation)
• Immediate Support: $0.257 (current price and intraday pivot); $0.2508 (May 30 low)
• Major Support: $0.240–$0.241 (multi-day consolidation base from late May)

4. Chart Patterns and Formations

• Descending Channel: Over the past ten days, price action forms a channel of lower highs and lower lows—a textbook bear flag after a sharp decline from the May peak.
• Breakdown Structure: May 29–31 saw an abrupt fall, failed bounce, and resumption of the downtrend, confirming sellers in control.
• No reversal patterns (double bottom, hammer, etc.) observed at these levels.

5. Oscillators and Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Estimated): Given the persistent drop and lack of sharp bounces, RSI likely hovers 32–38 (not yet oversold, can fall further).
• MACD: Both the MACD line and signal line are negative and diverging, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Would be near but not yet at oversold, further downside room available before a technical bounce is triggered.

6. Volume Analysis

• Volume in recent declines is average to low, so no capitulation yet—usually means further room to the downside is possible before buyer exhaustion.
• High volume spikes in May associated with massive sell-offs, and each recovery since has occurred on lower volume—classic bear market price behavior.

7. Volatility Gauges (ATR/Recent Range)

• Intraday ATR (estimated): Recent hourly candles maintain a tight range, reflecting declining volatility; however, tight ranges in downtrends often precede a volatility expansion (=stronger move lower before bottoming).

8. Fibonacci Retracement (From Swing Low $0.15 to High $0.47)

• 38.2% retracement: ~ $0.309
• 50% retracement: ~ $0.31
• 61.8% retracement: ~ $0.22
• Current trade is now below the 61.8% Fib Level but has not found support at this historical area. This increases the probability for a full retracement to the advanced base near $0.20–$0.22, but first, local lows will be tested.

9. Psychological Levels & Market Sentiment

• $0.25 and $0.20 are clear psychological price magnets.
• Any bounce will likely be met by selling unless there is a spike in volume and a solid reclaim of the $0.28–$0.29 former support.
• Sentiment is negative after the post-May-runoff and failed recovery attempts.

10. Candlestick Structure (Last 24 hours)

• Almost exclusively red closes, minor lower wicks (little dip-buying interest).
• Final 1–2 candles are small-bodied, no reversal signal ➔ trend continuation likely.

11. Gann/Fibonacci Time Analysis

• Major ascending leg lasted roughly 7–9 days—breakdown phase is now entering day 8, which historically for this token aligns with final capitulation washes.
• Another push lower in the next 24 hours is statistically probable.

12. Elliott Wave Consideration

• The post-May peak decline fits as a Wave C leg of a sharp ABC correction, with Wave C not yet having completed its full measured move (supporting expectation of at least one more probe lower).

SYNTHESIS & DECISION

All technical signals—momentum, price action, moving averages, volume, and patterns—point toward further decline for PNUT over the next 24 hours. There are no technical reversal signals nor bullish divergences. The bear channel is intact. Nearest liquidity pockets sit at $0.2508 (intraweek low) and $0.241 (late-May base).

A short (SELL) position taken on any relief bounce toward $0.262–$0.265 presents high reward/risk, with target at $0.241 (major support/congestion).

Downside is favored until at least one of the following occurs: an intraday bullish engulfing, high-volume wick, or support confirmation around $0.24.

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Conclusion: Initiate short (SELL) at $0.262, targeting $0.241 in the next 24 hours.