Exhaustive Technical Analysis — Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

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1. Trend Analysis (Long/Short-Term)

Daily Chart (3-Month Look Back):

• Uptrend to Peak: The daily data reveals a substantial uptrend starting from the $0.12-$0.15 range (April) up through an explosive surge to $0.48 (mid-May) on enormous volume spikes, indicating strong speculative buying.
• Sharp Decline: Following the peak ($0.48), there's a swift, multi-day sell-off. The price consistently closes lower, with a notable breakdown below previous support levels around $0.30 in early June.
• Recent Activity: As of today, price action is compressed between $0.23-$0.22, with low volatility and smaller hourly bars, indicating indecision and lack of aggressive new buyers.

Short-Term Intraday Trend (Last 24 Hours):

• The last 24 hourly bars show a stair-step decline from $0.232 to $0.221, with a brief dead-cat bounce at $0.226 — immediately sold off to new lows.

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2. Price Patterns

• Parabolic Surge and Blow-Off Top: Classic exponential rally, followed by a steep, high-volume retracement (May 8-14 for surge, May 14-30 for collapse). This typically signals the start of a long consolidation/lower phase.
• Bear Flag (June): After the initial drop to $0.23, there’s a brief consolidation/rebound to $0.27-$0.30 (June 1-10), tracing out a bear flag. The breakdown from $0.27 to current $0.22 confirms bearish resolution of the flag.
• Unable to Hold Support: All major breakdown levels (former supports at $0.26, then $0.23) have been lost with no follow-through bidding. Price makes new lower lows and lower highs — classic downtrend.

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3. Volume and Participation

• Volume Spike at Peak: Highest volumes occur at the top ($0.39-$0.48 May 9-14), indicating distribution — large players selling into retail euphoria.
• Diminishing Volume on Bounces: Volume on subsequent rallies lighter than on down days, characteristic of weak recoveries.
• Today’s Hourly Volume: Current volume is low, with only brief upticks on small bounces. There is no evidence of accumulation or aggressive dip-buying.

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4. Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

• 20EMA (estimate): Currently likely trending downward, estimated near $0.25-$0.26, acting as dynamic resistance. Price is trading well below key moving averages—a bearish scenario.
• 50SMA (estimate): Even higher at $0.27-$0.30, confirming long-term trend now negative.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) Estimate

• With sharp declines and failed bounces, the RSI is likely under 35 — possibly in oversold territory, but not at an extreme low (<20) where reversal is likely. This supports a downtrend, but with some risk of short-term relief bounce.

MACD

• The histogram is likely negative, with the MACD line trending sharply below the signal line and no sign of upwards cross.

ATR (Average True Range) & Volatility

• ATR remains elevated relative to April/early May—implied risk remains high despite smaller daily moves.

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5. Order Flow and Market Structure

Order Book Analysis (From Chart Structure):

• No Local Demand: Across the last 24 hours, every rally is sold into. No significant wicks or failed breaks to the downside—no evidence of pulse buying.
• Liquidity Cliffs: The price action through $0.22 has not found support — next visible historical support appears at $0.18-$0.20 (March/April highs), which now may act as magnets.

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6. Support and Resistance

• Immediate Resistance: $0.23-$0.24 (recent breakdown zone / former support and psychological round number)
• Major Support: $0.18-$0.20 (tested in March; pre-breakout base range), $0.21 minor, then $0.20
• Recent Low: $0.221 — no significant reaction to bounce higher.

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7. Market Sentiment & Psychology

• Late-Stage Bearishness: Most buyers from the $0.30-$0.40 area are now underwater; sentiment likely extremely negative with limited liquidity as dip buyers avoid the knife.
• Capitulation Phase: Notable that panic selling is not fierce—the breakdown is relatively orderly, implying leftover longs exiting on each failed rally.

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8. Corroborative Techniques

• Fibonacci Retracement: 61.8% retrace of the up-move from $0.12 to $0.48 is approx. $0.23 — price is below this, suggesting extended correction toward the 78.6% retrace at $0.18.
• Elliott Wave: After 5 impulse waves up (parabolic), there’s been a sharp A-B-C corrective sequence — currently finishing C with little evidence of reversal.
• VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): The primary VWAP from the bull run sits above; price is trading substantially below VWAP, confirming institutional sellers dominate.

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9. Prognosis: 24-Hour Price Prediction

• Direction: Downward pressure remains dominant. With every bounce being sold and no sign of reversal, price is likely to seek out the next liquidity pocket — around $0.20.
• Best-Case Scenario: Possible modest relief bounce into $0.225-$0.23, but likely to stall there with further selling.
• Worst-Case: Washout to $0.20 or even $0.19, provided volume increases on the move.

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10. Synthesis and Conclusion

All examined technical evidence — trend structure, volume, breakdowns, and absence of strong buying interest — signals a strong short setup. Though the market is somewhat oversold, there is little to no technical basis for a sustained mean reversion rally. The probability favours a grind or swift move toward $0.20 as next support.

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11. Optimal Entry and Exit

• Open Price: Ideal entry for a short position is at $0.221, as close to the current price as possible to maximize risk/reward. Any pop into the $0.225-$0.23 (intraday resistance) can also be used for higher entry precision.
• Close Price (Target Profit): Set primary take profit at $0.202 (well above the $0.20 round number to ensure fill before major support is tested).

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Summary Table

Indicator	Direction	Confidence
Trend	Down	High
Volume	Bearish	High
MACD/RSI	Bearish	Medium
Patterns	Bearish	High
Risk	Elevated	High

Action: Initiate Short Position.