Step-by-Step Technical Analysis of Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Trend and Price Structure Analysis

• Long-Term Perspective:

  • The PNUT price saw an explosive rally from May 8 ($0.21) to an all-time high (ATH) above $0.47 on May 13, followed by a steep, high-volume correction.
  • Since the mid-May crash, the price has been unable to recover the $0.35–$0.40 zone, registering lower highs and a sequence of failed breakout attempts.
  • From late May onward, the price structure shifted to a pronounced downtrend, with each corrective bounce met by heavy selling.

• Short and Medium-Term Structure:

  • Recent volatility (last 10 days) compresses in the $0.22–$0.28 zone, with sharp downward spikes met by quick, yet weaker, bounces.
  • June 12-17: Lower lows and lower highs (from $0.30 down to $0.21 intraday), finalizing with a small impulse up to the current $0.2235.
  • Most recent hourly closes show weak upward attempts, often instantly faded.

2. Volume Profile & Market Participation

• Major volume spike occurred during the rally/collapse (May 9–13), rotation zones saw volume dwindle post-ATH.
• Notable minor spikes (June 11, June 13, June 18 at 13:00/14:00/18:00 UTC) witness action around support boundaries ($0.21–$0.23); price recovers weakly, with follow-through absent.
• Interpretation: Distributional behavior by larger participants, accumulation not visible at these levels.

3. Support and Resistance Analysis

Support Levels:

• $0.219–$0.220 (recent local lows, tested 6+ times June 12–18). Several intraday wicks touch $0.213–$0.216 suggesting weak but present buyers.
• Next major support: $0.20 (psychological & prior reversal base).

Resistance Levels:

• $0.228 (prior local low, now overhead resistance and breached intraday high)
• $0.25 (broken May-June floor, now a strong supply zone)
• $0.265–$0.28 (most recent major failed bounce)

4. Chart and Candlestick Pattern Reading

• Post-crash, the repeated inability to close above $0.23–$0.24 signals dominance by sellers. Hammer/long wick attempts are rejected at prior levels.
• Recent hourly candles: modest dojis and spinning tops, showing indecision, but lacking aggressive bull follow-up.
• No reliable reversal pattern (such as a morning star, bullish engulfing, or inverse head & shoulders) discernible on the 4h/daily timeframes.

5. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) (Assumed, Based on Price Action): RSI likely hovers just below 35–40, showing persistent mild oversold readings but no divergence or bullish reversal signal.
• MACD: The move from $0.27 to $0.22 was sharp (bearish MACD, negative histogram), and since then lines have converged but have yet to flip positive.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Frequently reset near oversold, but with negligible response—indicative of a market in search of real, not technical, buyers.

6. Volatility Analysis (ATR and Candle Wicks)

• Daily ATR (Average True Range): High in May, but contracting for the past week—supports the observation of a descending, consolidating chop within $0.21–$0.23.

7. Order Book Flow / Volume Delta

• Recent volume on up-closes ($0.213–$0.22 range) is markedly less than on the sharp red candles. Implies sellers are more aggressive during down moves than buyers are during attempts at reversal.
• No clear sign of panic capitulation or high-volume absorption yet.

8. Moving Averages & Mean Reversion

• Short-term (10/21 EMA): Last closing prices sit below even the 10-period EMA (approx. $0.225), meaning trend-followers are still shorting into minor rallies.
• Long-term (50/100 MA): All sit well above current price. Bulls are far from regaining structural control.

9. Fibonacci Retracements (April–May Swing)

• Current price hovers near 78.6% retracement from May rally low to the ATH, often the last stop before price completes a full retrace down into the base of the move ($0.18–$0.21 region).

10. Sentiment and Positioning Synthesis

• There is no bullish momentum, reversal, or clear bottoming signal. Buyers are unwilling or unable to establish strong, sustained footholds. The most probable path is a retest of $0.219–$0.215 intraday support and possibly a sweep of the psychological $0.21–$0.20 zone.

11. Summary Table

Factor	Bullish?	Bearish?	Signal Strength
Trend		✔	High
Volume		✔	Moderate/high
Support/Resistance breach		✔	High
Candlestick reversal		✔	Moderate
Momentum (RSI, MACD, Stoch)		✔	Moderate
Volatility/ATR		✔	Moderate
Moving Averages		✔	High

12. Investment Techniques Synthesis

• Breakdown Play: Short breakdown if $0.219 cracks with a surge in sell volume.
• Pullback Rejection: If price spikes to $0.225–$0.228 and promptly rejects, enter short on confirmation candle.
• Volume Confirmation: Increased sell volume on new lows would confirm sellers firmly in control.

13. Final Recommendation

Given the convergence of trend, momentum, lack of reversal, and repeated support tests under waning buying interest, the highest probability is continued downside.

Final Trading Decision: Sell

• Enter short on a breakdown below $0.2225—the current lower hourly range boundary.
• Target a take profit at $0.209. This targets a sweep of the major psychological $0.21, just above prior absolute lows, balancing profit and risk.
• If a bounce to $0.226–$0.228 occurs before breakdown, re-evaluate and consider entering there with a stop above $0.231.

Risk/Stop: Conservative stop at $0.231 (above key intraday resistance).

Expected Timeframe: Move likely to develop within the next 24 hours as the support zone is thin and tested multiple times.

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Summary:

Bearish scenario is favored; short at $0.2225 or on a failed bounce. Watch for sustained breakdown to $0.209.

Caveat: Monitor for abnormal buy spikes. If a strong daily bullish engulfing reversal emerges, this view may become invalid; otherwise, trend-follow trading is preferred.