Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) - Detailed Technical Analysis for 2025-06-20

1. Trend Analysis: Multi-Timeframe Review

Daily Trend:
PNUT has experienced pronounced volatility over the past several months, with multiple pronounced upswings (notably early-to-mid May, crossing $0.40-$0.48) followed by persistent corrections and now lower prices. The dramatic blow-off top between May 8–14 (large green candles, volumes in the billions) was followed by a strong retracement and then a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating the potential start of a bearish trend.

Recent Short-Term Trend:
From June onward, the price stabilized in the $0.29–$0.25 range with attempts to reclaim lost ground, only to be rejected. Notably, throughout June, each rally attempt above $0.27–$0.30 was sold off, and volume steadily decreased, indicating both waning bull interest and exhaustion. The most recent local support ($0.22–$0.23) was tested thrice but held—until today’s session, where there was a spike to $0.25+, then an immediate return below resistance on declining volume.

2. Volume & Momentum

Volume spiked massively on multiple days in May during the breakout (May 8–13) and the capitulation (May 30), showing institutional or concentrated actors exiting. In the past 10 sessions, volume has waned during minor recovery attempts, a classic sign of consolidation but also often a prelude to continuation if no new buyers emerge. More troublingly, intraday h/l (high/low) volatility is compressing, a sign of imminent directional move. The most recent hours show weak upward follow-through on moves above $0.23–$0.25.

Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD):

• RSI (estimated from price movement): After severe overbought (May), followed by sub-30 oversold (early June), now likely in the 35–45 range with mild upward pulls but no evidence of bullish divergence—suggests a consolidation within a downtrend.
• MACD: While not directly available, interpretation from price action hints at MACD below the zero line with possible attempts to curl, but no true bullish cross as high-volume down-closes dwarf up-closes.

3. Support/Resistance Mapping

• Support: $0.225–$0.220 (recent lows, tested on June 14, 19, and today's session)
• Major Support: $0.213–$0.215 (tested June 13/17, wick lows)
• Resistance: $0.233–$0.250 (multiple rejection wicks in last 36 hours)
• Major Resistance Zone: $0.263–$0.270 (failed bounce zone early June)

Micro (Hourly) Resistance:
Several attempts today to break $0.228–$0.250 have met heavy selling; higher timeframe (daily) shows $0.250–$0.265 as the breakdown level post-capitulation. Each buy in these regions has been sold steadily over the past week.

4. Candle/Pattern Analysis

The May rally represents a textbook parabolic advance ending in blow-off volume, matched by heavy red candles and gapped-down opens through late May and June. Since then, a descending triangle has formed, with the base at $0.220-$0.225 and lower highs ($0.266, $0.250, now $0.240). These triangles, especially following a dramatic uptrend, are typically bearish%. The most recent candle (daily close at $0.2272) is a small-bodied doji after a failed breakout—suggesting indecision but probable bearish follow-through if support cracks.

Intraday pricing today saw a failed spike above $0.25 (high $0.250933), immediately faded and closed under $0.228, confirming strong overhead supply.

5. Moving Averages

• Short-Term (20 EMA): Likely around $0.233–$0.237
• Mid-Term (50 EMA): Near $0.250–$0.260 Price remains below both, with repeated attempts to reclaim failing and upper wicks visible. The classic setup for a continuation lower unless a large positive catalyst appears.

6. Volatility & Order Book Clues

Recent volatility compression and sharp rejections at lower intraday highs nearly always precede a pronounced move as order books thin. Given strong distribution on micro rallies, the path of least resistance is downwards, at least to the next support test.

7. Composite Technicals/Strategy Comparison

• Trend-following: Bearish, clear lower highs and lower lows
• Support/Resistance: Favoring breakdown with minor bounces
• Mean Reversion: Overstretched since May, but not showing significant accumulation here
• Volume Profile: Sellers in control, buyers exhausted
• Candlestick Pattern: Doji after failed bull breakout = likely pre-breakdown pause
• Risk/Reward: Short into $0.227–$0.230 with stop above $0.250 offers solid R:R (risk:reward) targeting sub-$0.220
• Elliott Wave: Post-blowoff wave 4 flat then wave 5 down probable

8. Price Prediction – Next 24 Hours

Given overwhelming evidence of failed rallies, bearish microstructure, and repeated support tests, a breakdown through $0.225–$0.220 is highly probable in the next trading session, with targets at the lower support, $0.213–$0.215 (recent extreme wicks). A brief bounce into $0.230–$0.233 is possible (potential final short entry), but major move expected is downward. Conversely, a strong reclaim and close above $0.250 would invalidate this view (low likelihood currently).

9. Trading Plan and Optimal Level

Decision: SELL (SHORT POSITION)
Open Price: Ideally between $0.227–$0.230 (current market); if bounce, scale in up to $0.233
Target Close Price: $0.215 (recent support zone, pre-breakdown wick base)

10. Cautions

Short-term volatility and thin order books can generate wicks; position sizing and stop discipline are vital.

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Conclusion: The structure, volume, and repeated failed rallies all support further downside for PNUT. Be alert for abnormal volume or news, but bias into next 24 hours is for further price deterioration toward $0.215.

Trade: Open Short at $0.227–$0.230, target close at $0.215.

End of Analysis