Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) - Thorough 24h Price Movement Analysis

Step-by-Step Technical Analysis

1. Trend Analysis (Long-Term, Medium-Term, Short-Term)

Long-Term (3 months)

• General Trend: The price peaked sharply (early May, $0.48) after a period of accumulation in the $0.12–$0.18 range. Since this blow-off top, PNUT has experienced a strong downtrend. The past 10 days show a descent from $0.33 to sub-$0.24, with a pronounced acceleration in the last 48h.
• Trend Structure: Each rally has failed to develop higher highs and higher lows; recent bouncing attempts have been notably weaker.

Medium-Term (30 days)

• Pattern: After the early June breakdown from $0.34–$0.25 support, the price established lower highs and lower lows. Price is now below key support ($0.23–$0.24), indicating weakness.
• Notable Breakdown: Heavy volume on June 20 and June 21 (latest) confirms the breakdown below $0.23 with strong conviction.

Short-Term (1–5 days)

• Current Structure: Most recent candles are bearish, with long upper wicks: sellers pushing down recovery attempts. Last hourly candles show lower highs and lower closes. No clear demand zone yet identified.

2. Volume & Momentum Analysis

• Volume: A massive sell-off spike (over 140m vs. recent typical 60m-90m avg) coincided with the break below $0.23. This is an exhaustion or panic move typical of capitulation, but lack of swift reversal suggests sellers control the tape.
• OBV (On-Balance Volume) Estimate: Down-sloping OBV for weeks; no sign of divergence. Momentum is negative.
• RSI: Implied deeply oversold (<30 on daily), but history points out that previous oversold conditions led only to brief rebounds, not major reversals.

3. Volatility & ATR (Average True Range)

• ATR Expansion: ATR has notably increased in June, coinciding with the steeper slide. High volatility with a negative price slope is consistent with a panic liquidation phase; typically, volatility persists until new buyers step in with size, which has not yet appeared.

4. Key Support & Resistance Levels

• Support:
  • $0.205–$0.210: Today’s intraday low; fragile and just barely holding at the moment.
  • $0.19: Next heavy-volume absorption area from late March; potential for some demand.
  • $0.16: Psychological, major historical base.
• Resistance:
  • $0.22–$0.23: Recent breakdown zone; likely to act as strong resistance if price rebounds.
  • $0.25: Former interim range low; secondary resistance.

5. Chart Patterns & Candlestick Structure

• Intraday (Last 24h): Series of small-bodied candles with long upper shadows, clear rejection of upside; sellers aggressive into every bounce.
• Descending Channel: Steady progression lower, no break in the channel yet.
• No bullish reversal pattern: No hammer, morning star, or bullish engulfing pattern; bearish continuation is favored.

6. Moving Averages

• 200-period MA (daily): Well above current price, reinforces the downtrend.
• 50-period MA (daily/4h): Slope steeply negative; provides dynamic resistance (now near $0.24).
• Short-term MAs (15m, 1h): All rolling over; price trading below every moving average. No near-term bullish cross.

7. Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• From May’s high ($0.48) to June’s low ($0.21):
  • 23.6% = $0.26
  • 38.2% = $0.29
  • 61.8% = $0.34
  • Current price is well below every major retracement, indicating deep sell-off territory with minimal sign of reversal.

8. Market Sentiment & Order Flow

• Bid-ask sweeps near $0.21 indicate sellers aggressively hitting bids. No evidence of large buy blocks or positive order imbalances.
• Psychological level ($0.20) is being tested. If breached with volume, cascades to $0.19–$0.18 or even $0.16 are possible.

9. Regression & Statistical Bias

• Mean reversion models suggest price remains well below average; however, absent bullish catalysts, further drift lower in price cannot be ruled out. Could get a short bounce if extreme liquidity vacuum at $0.20 triggers, but low probability until buyers reappear.

10. Elliott Wave Analysis

• Cycle suggests recent move is either the latter part of a C-wave or an extended wave three down: both favor more downside before a true bottom.

11. Composite View & Probabilistic Projection

• Best-Fit Scenario: Probability-weighted outcome is further downside over the next 24h, with a potential retest of $0.20, $0.19—or if selling accelerates, even $0.18–$0.16.
• Rebound Risk: Brief wick above $0.21–$0.22 possible on mean-reversion, but each bounce likely to meet selling pressure from trapped longs.

Synthesis and Recommendation

All technical metrics indicate a sustained bearish environment. Momentum, trend, volume, and price structure substantiate a continued move lower. No chart, sentiment, or volume evidence of capitulation bottom or reversal pattern.

Strategy: Optimal play is SELL SHORT on minor recovery, targeting continuation of this down move. Wait for a small bounce ($0.209–$0.211) for optimal entry, setting take-profit near the next major demand zone ($0.190).