Step 1: Trend Analysis (Daily Timeframe)

Looking at the daily data for the last three months, PNUT experienced a strong surge in early May 2025, peaking with a series of high-volume, high-volatility days (particularly May 8–14), where price moved from ~$0.15 to above $0.47 before a sharp retracement. Since then, an extended period of distribution/sell-off followed with multiple failed attempts at new highs, forming lower highs and lower lows—a classic reversal from blow-off top dynamics.

In June, there's evidence of stabilization and base-building between $0.19 and $0.27. Occasional spikes (June 7, June 9–10, June 20, June 28–29) were met with heavy selling and rejection from ~$0.27–0.30, capping any recoveries. The most recent daily candles (June 28–30) show a near-term bounce off $0.20 support to current $0.2364.

Step 2: Intraday Structure (June 29 – June 30, Hourly Data)

Zooming in, price steadily climbed from $0.2206 up to hourly highs of $0.2444, but each advance was quickly faded. Volume was elevated between 06:00 and 11:00 UTC June 30, registering near-term resistance just below $0.244. Recent hours show a loss of momentum: repeated rejection at $0.2395–$0.244, smaller green candles, and narrowed trading ranges despite high volume — suggesting supply absorption overhead.

Step 3: Moving Averages

A. Short-Term (5/10 EMA): Calculating a rough 5-period and 10-period EMA using the last week of daily closes:

• 5 EMA: Avg(last 5 closes) ≈ (0.2033, 0.2204, 0.2369, 0.2364)/5 ≈ 0.219
• 10 EMA: Slightly lower, likely at ~0.215 The current price ($0.2364) is above both, showing a momentum shift but within the context of a larger downtrend.

B. Longer-Term (20/50 EMA): The 20-day EMA is likely in the $0.220 area, while the 50-day is near $0.24 (given recent volatile moves). Price is hovering just below the latter, treating $0.24–$0.244 as resistance.

Step 4: Volume Analysis & Market Psychology

• Big volume spikes on up moves (e.g., May blow-off, then June 9–10, June 20, June 28–29) immediately met with heavy sell pressure and retraces. This signals large holders/traders are selling into strength. The volume profile supports that recent rallies are exit liquidity, not new sustainable demand.
• The current bounce comes after sustained low price and low volume through mid-June, but the dramatic ramp in recent days with clear upper-wick rejections signals sellers active at $0.24–$0.27.

Step 5: Support/Resistance, Key Levels

• Support:$0.22 (minor, psychological and previous hourly lows); $0.20 (firm, multi-touch from mid-June)
• Resistance: $0.236–0.244 (current band, multiple intraday rejection); $0.250–0.27 (daily chart, previous breakdown point and congestion zone)

Step 6: Pattern Recognition

• Formation of a potential descending triangle since the May blow-off; recent price action failed to break above $0.244 convincingly. On higher timeframe, this can resolve in another leg down if support cracks.
• Last few days show a bump-and-run reversal warning: Steady base followed by a ramp, but with shallow follow-through and supply quickly overwhelming demand at resistance.

Step 7: Momentum Indicators

(No explicit RSI/MACD but inference from price action):

• Bullish momentum faded: Successive attempts to push above $0.244 are met with swift selling, and the upmove lacks volume confirmation on green candles.
• Price is close to overbought conditions for the very short-term given rapid ~15% bounce from last week’s low.

Step 8: Volatility and Order Flow

• Volatility has compressed over past 12 hours—after rapid ascent, the pause beneath resistance suggests option writers (if present) and market makers are positioning for a mean reversion or a shakeout.

Step 9: Sentiment/Positioning

• With failed follow-through and strong resistance, late longs are at risk of a flush if price drops below $0.234; trap setup for breakout buyers.
• Elevated volume on failed breakouts suggests active distribution phase.

Step 10: Probable Scenarios

Bull Case (Low Probability Next 24h)

If $0.244 is decisively broken with volume, potential for retest of $0.250-$0.255. However, given order flow, sellers likely step in hard again.

Base Case (High Probability)

Momentum stalls now, price likely chops below/around $0.234-$0.236 before a weakness move towards $0.222 (minor support), with possible extension to $0.213 or a full retest of the $0.20 base.

Bear Case (Moderate-High)

Quick reversal through $0.230 leads to stop runs, targeting $0.220-$0.213; if market broadens risk-off, could see retest of $0.200.

Step 11: Risk/Reward, Execution Plan

Given clear resistance at $0.236-$0.244, failed momentum, overextension on the short-term bounce, and dominant distribution on volume spikes, the best probability trade is shorting any failed push towards the resistance zone.

• Open Short: $0.238 (on any small spike/rally attempt)
• Target: $0.220 (take profit at high-volume support, ahead of possible bounces)
• Stop Loss: Above $0.244 (invalidates thesis if absorbed)

Step 12: Final Decision

Sell (Short Position) — Rationale: Market shows exhaustion at resistance; breakdown likely as prior rallies repeatedly faded. Near-term risk is skewed to downside given order flow and lack of sustained bid.

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Summary:

• PNUT has rebounded from its base, but persistent heavy supply at $0.236–$0.244 and failed breakout attempts indicate the path of least resistance is down. Shorting the failed rally, targeting the $0.220 support, offers optimal risk/reward.