Exhaustive Technical Analysis of Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Trend Analysis – Long-term and Short-term

• Daily Chart: Over the last three months, PNUT transitioned from a long accumulation phase (~$0.13-$0.18, early April to early May) to an explosive, highly volatile markup above $0.40 in mid-May, then formed a steep descending channel, with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, bottoming near $0.19 in late June.
• Recent Recovery: Since the end of June, PNUT has staged a recovery, evident by the higher lows from $0.19 (late June) to $0.22+ (early July) and a current push to $0.2312.

Conclusion: The macro-trend is transitioning from bearish to neutral/bullish, with a possible bottoming process around $0.19-$0.21.

2. Support and Resistance

• Major Supports:
  • $0.194-$0.205 (Local lows, major demand zone)
  • $0.221-$0.224 (Recent swing lows, short-term buyers' area)
• Major Resistance:
  • $0.237-$0.242 (Last week’s highs and the point of sharp rejections)
  • $0.256-$0.26 (June’s failed breakout zone)

Conclusion: Price is currently just below the first significant resistance ($0.237-$0.242) after rebounding from $0.213 in the prior 24h.

3. Moving Averages (MA)

• 50-period MA (estimated ~$0.23): Price is on or slightly above this level, indicating the start of a possible bullish crossover.
• 200-period MA (estimated ~$0.25): Remains overhead, and a long-term breakout would require clearing $0.25.

Conclusion: A golden cross is possible if sustained buying lifts price above $0.24, signaling growing momentum.

4. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spike: The significant jump in volume on the 17:00, 18:00, and 19:00 July 8 candles accompanied the move from $0.215 to $0.238. High volume on up-candles suggests accumulation by stronger hands.
• Average Volume: Volume remains elevated compared to recent lulls, which often precedes directional follow-through.

Conclusion: The volume surge on the up-move strengthens the case for continued bullish pressure in the next session.

5. Volatility Analysis – ATR and Recent Candle Sizes

• Recent ATR: The amplitude of intraday swings has compressed after the late June volatility, with daily ranges narrowing, but single-hour volatility just increased sharply (7% swing from $0.214 to $0.238 in one hour).
• Interpretation: This contraction followed by expansion is often seen before directional breakout moves.

Conclusion: Expect above-average price movement in the next 24h.

6. Candlestick Patterns & Microstructure

• Bullish Marubozu: The 18:00 and 19:00 July 8 candles show near-full-bodied bullish candles—suggesting strong buying intent.
• No Significant Wick Up: The current hourly close at $0.2312 is not showing harsh rejection.

Conclusion: This is a textbook bullish breakout from consolidation with positive microstructure.

7. Momentum Indicators (RSI, MACD - estimated)

• RSI: Price action suggests RSI is near 60-65 range—upward but not yet overbought.
• MACD: Likely on a bullish cross and rising amplitude, given recent price acceleration.

Conclusion: Momentum is rising, but not at overbought extremes.

8. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

• Swing High ($0.417, May) to Swing Low ($0.194, June):
  • 23.6%: $0.243
  • 38.2%: $0.267
  • 50%: $0.305
• Current Price ($0.231): At the cusp of the first fib level ($0.243). Breaking $0.243 would target $0.267 next.

9. Market Psychology, Order Flow & Sentiment

• Accumulation Evidence: Sideways basing at $0.19-$0.22 over two weeks implies higher-timeframe buyers.
• Breakout Buyers Stepping In: The high-volume breakout through $0.224-$0.231 suggests FOMO and new momentum traders entering.
• Likely Liquidity Gaps: There’s a pocket of thin liquidity between $0.237 and $0.245—price can move quickly through this area.

10. Order Book & Liquidity (Derived from Chart Behavior)

• Raid on Stop-Orders: The swift surge from $0.215 to $0.238 likely tripped stop losses of shorts and forced covering, adding to bullish fuel.
• Resting Orders: Resistance expected at $0.237-$0.242 (prior highs), but if absorbed, the path to $0.245+ is open.

11. Elliott Wave Analysis (Contextual)

• Cycle: The downtrend from May may have completed a 5-wave sequence. We might now be in the first upward impulse (wave 1 or wave A of a corrective ABC upward move).

12. Statistical/Probabilistic Outlook

• Historic 24h Moves After Similar Breakouts: PNUT’s past behavior after consolidation-bullish breakout typically sees +5-12% follow-through before peaking/pausing.

Composite Conclusion:

• All major indicators (trend, momentum, volume, market structure, volatility) align for a short- to mid-term bullish continuation.
• The breakout over $0.224 is confirmed by strong volume and price retention.
• Immediate resistance sits at $0.237-$0.242, but absorption would likely run price toward $0.245 within 24h.
• Downside risk is controlled with a stop below $0.221 (recent swing low).

Prediction for Next 24h:

• High chance (estimated >75%) that PNUT tests and likely breaks above $0.242, targeting $0.245-$0.25. Should there be a pullback, $0.227-$0.229 is strong support for aggressive bulls.

Optimal Trade Recommendation

• Buy PNUT on slight retracements to $0.229–$0.231 (current level or tiny dip),
• Take profit at $0.245 (conservative, just below next resistance/fibonacci cluster).
• Risk management: Consider stop-loss below $0.221 (recent swing low/failed breakout confirmation level).

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Summary Table:

• Decision: Buy
• Open Price: $0.2312 (current), or ideally $0.2305 on a minor pullback
• Take Profit: $0.245 (before major resistance/fibonacci/psychological level)
• Stop Loss: $0.221 (below swing low)

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Technical Alignment for a PNUT Surge: Why Bulls Are Back In Control