Comprehensive Technical Analysis of Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Trend Analysis (Daily and Intraday Patterns)

• Medium-term Trend: After peaking in mid-May at ~$0.48, PNUT experienced a significant correction down to a low of ~$0.19 in late June. Since then, the price steadily rebounded and now trades at $0.2729, having shown a pattern of higher lows and recent attempts at higher highs.
• Short-Term (Last 48h): The price attempted to break above $0.31 on July 14th (intraday high), but quickly retraced, indicating a failed breakout and possible exhaustion among buyers. The close for the day is now back near $0.273, suggesting rejection at higher levels.

2. Volume Analysis

• Volume Spikes: There was significant volume on July 10th, when price surged to ~$0.293 (419M volume), with elevated but declining volume since then. Classic technical analysis calls this a potential climax top, followed by distribution as the price failed to sustain momentum.
• Current Volume: Intraday volume (latest bars) dropped drastically as price stalls around $0.273, indicating neither strong buying support nor panic selling—a sign of consolidation or uncertain direction.

3. Support/Resistance Levels

• Immediate Resistance: Key resistance zone is $0.29-$0.31 (multiple attempts but no closes above, especially July 14th high at $0.313). Strong rejection here.
• Immediate Support: $0.265-$0.268 serves as near-term support, being the lower bound of today's price reaction. Below, $0.25 is the next major support (psychological round level, previous consolidation area).

4. Candlestick & Price Action Analysis

• Intraday (July 14th): Spikes above $0.31 were quickly reversed with consecutive red candles forming lower highs—showing supply exceeds demand at those levels.
• Last Daily Candlesticks: July 11th: Bearish engulfing (open $0.293, close $0.272), followed by low-range candles, indicating indecision after the selloff.

5. Moving Averages (Estimations)

• Short-term (5-10 MA): Likely converging near the current price ($0.27-$0.28), suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish short-term momentum as the price failed to reclaim the moving average after rejection.
• Medium-term (20-30 MA): Likely above, closer to $0.29-$0.31, reinforcing the resistive nature of this range.

6. Momentum Indicators (RSI/Stochastic, estimated)

• RSI: After the sharp rally to $0.293 (overbought), sharp retracement implies RSI is now declining, potentially dropping below 50, showing loss of bullish momentum.
• MACD: Crossed into negative territory after the failed breakout, converging to signal potential further downside unless momentum reverses.

7. Volatility Indicators (Bollinger Bands, ATR)

• Bollinger Bands (est.): Recent surge expanded bands, but fast mean-reversion character suggests price is at or just above mid-band (typical in consolidations before secondary retracements).
• ATR: Elevated recently, confirming the upsurge in volatility—but declining ATR in the last few bars (tighter range) shows market indecision and a possible volatility contraction before a larger move resumes.

8. Pattern Recognition

• Failed Breakout/False Move: The upwick to $0.313 with immediate collapse is classic failed breakout; frequent precursor to short-term trend reversal.
• Head-and-Shoulders (Micro): Intraday, the price forms a mini head-and-shoulders with peaks at $0.293, $0.313, and $0.294—neckline at $0.272. Intraday breach of the neckline has just occurred, signaling continuation downward.

9. Order Book/Flow (Derived from Candles & Volume)

• Seller Aggression: High-volume failures at resistance and retreating closes suggest sellers are offloading into strength and new buyers are exhausted above $0.31.

10. Elliott Wave Perspective (Micro Analyst View)

• Wave Structure: The advance from $0.19 to $0.29 was impulsive, but the retreat and choppy action post-$0.29 looks corrective. The market may enter a smaller A-B-C corrective flat toward $0.26-$0.25 before stabilizing for the next impulse.

11. Fibonacci Retracement Analysis

• From $0.19 (late June Low) to $0.313 (July 14th High): The 38.2% retracement sits near $0.261; 50% is $0.251. Current pullback targets these zones, in line with previous support and volume-based demand areas.

12. Sentiment/Behavioral Analysis

• Trap Move: Recent rally may have trapped late buyers near the highs, leading to further liquidation and downward pressure as they cut losses.

13. Composite View—Decision Synthesis

• Multilayered technical analysis points to a failed breakout, distribution, and likely near-term pullback. High time frame trend is still recovering from a deep correction, but the short-term setup is skewed for a dip toward $0.26–$0.25 before a possible base and renewed advances.

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Conclusion:

• Expectation is for further downside to the $0.261–$0.251 region over the next 24 hours based on failed breakout, high-volume rejection, and emerging short-term bearish structures.
• Risk of a brief bounce if price reaches $0.265, but the path of least resistance is down until buyers prove otherwise.

Trade Position:

• Faded rally—optimal to open a short (Sell) position within $0.273-$0.275 range. Target $0.261 (38% Fib retrace, volume support), with potential extension to $0.251 if liquidation accelerates.