Detailed Step-By-Step Technical Analysis of Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Long-Term Trend Evaluation

Weekly & Daily Trend

• From April 18th to late May 2025: Major uptrend. PNUT rose from $0.13 region, peaked near $0.48 in mid-May.
• Late May to late June: Clear correction. Price dropped, bottoming near $0.19 on June 22nd. Lower highs, lower lows established.
• Late June to present: Strong recovery. Price rallied from $0.19 to $0.30+, with particularly large green candles July 10th ($0.23 to $0.29) and July 16th ($0.286 to $0.305).

Conclusion: Medium-term structure is bullish refresh after a deep pullback. This is usually positive for future price momentum.

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2. Volume Analysis

• Huge volume spikes on rallies (e.g., May 9th: 1.25B volume when price exploded from $0.22 to $0.39).
• During latest rally (July 15-16): Volume has increased considerably (up to 296M on July 16th), especially compared to prior weeks.
• Interpretation: High volume validating upward price moves suggests strong conviction behind the rally, not just low-liquidity squeezes.

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3. Support and Resistance Mapping

• Key Support Levels:
  • $0.28 (recent breakout, prior resistance from July 12-14)
  • $0.25 (former June highs and consolidation zone)
• Key Resistance Levels:
  • $0.31–$0.32 (last session’s local highs)
  • $0.35 (pivot from late May/early June consolidations)
  • $0.39–$0.41 (failed rebound attempts in late May, high-congestion zones)
  • $0.47–$0.48 (mid-May all-time-high)

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4. Candlestick and Price Action Analysis

• Current hourly candles (July 16th) show:
  • Consecutive higher highs and higher lows from $0.28 base, culminating at $0.3126.
  • Pullback to $0.305 at latest closed hourly candle, but still above key former resistance.
• No large upper wicks recently: Shows buyers are in control, selling pressure light.
• Closing at highs: Last few daily candles close near the day’s high, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

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5. Pattern Recognition

• Inverse Head and Shoulders (June 21st–July 8th):
  • Left shoulder: $0.20 (June 21)
  • Head: $0.19 (June 22)
  • Right shoulder: $0.22–$0.23 (July 6-8)
  • Breakout above neckline ($0.23) on July 10. Implies medium-term reversal, target theoretically in $0.28–$0.31 range (already met, further extension possible).
• Recent Breakout Pattern
  • July 13–15: Consolidation ($0.26–0.28)
  • July 16: Breakout to new rally highs

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6. Moving Averages and Momentum

• Trend acceleration: Only slightly lagging as most immediate rises outpaced previous resistance—indicates strong momentum.
• Estimated 20-period EMA (hourly) around $0.29, price cleanly above.
• RSI (Hourly, estimated) likely around 65–70: trending into overbought, but not dangerously high.
• MACD (estimated): Histogram expanding, bullish cross occurred on July 12–13. Still showing increasing positive divergence.

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7. Volatility & Risk Ceiling

• Intraday swings intensifying, but volatility is expansionary (i.e., trending volatility as opposed to chop). Not a sign of topping.
• Price is currently near highs, but not at major psychological round numbers ($0.35, $0.40 remain). Room to run.

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8. Fibonacci Extension/Projection

• From recent upswing (July 13 $0.27 to July 16 $0.31): 100% extension=$0.32, 161.8%=$0.338, 200%=$0.35.
• These overlap nicely with chart resistance above.

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9. Sentiment and Market Structure

• Renewed bullish participation after bear market bottom.
• No major profit-taking event seen yet at current level—suggests more upside likely.

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10. Combined Signal Assessment

• Bullish signals: Trend reversal, breakout on volume, close above resistance, lack of heavy profit-taking.
• Risk: Slight chance of minor dip as overheated hourly RSI may lead to short-term pullback toward $0.29–$0.30 (support). Any such retrace is likely to get bought up based on momentum.
• Opportunity: Continuation breakout trade with stop near $0.29 and target region $0.34–$0.35.

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11. Trading Plan Conclusion

• Bias: Strong long (Buy)
• Entry: Pullback toward $0.303–$0.306 ideal as initial resistance becomes support, but breakout entry at current price ($0.3058) is also justifiable given volume/momentum.
• Profit Target: $0.345 (next resistance cluster, aligns with Fib/projection levels)
• Stop Loss / Risk: Place stops below $0.29 (breakdown invalidates setup)

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Final Recommendation:

Open a long (Buy) position now ($0.3058), targeting $0.345 for take profit.