Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Trend Assessment

Long-Term Trend

• From April to mid-May: The price underwent a parabolic move (0.15 → 0.48), then corrected aggressively. This is classic speculative/altcoin cycle behavior.
• June correction: From late May to end of June, PNUT constructed a descending wedge with lower lows, bottoming at 0.19–0.20 with accumulating volume—signaling long-term buyers stepping in.
• July shift: After a retest of lows, price started forming higher lows, breaking out above the downtrend resistance.

Short-Term Trend

• Past 7 days: Sideways-to-slightly-bullish consolidation around 0.27–0.29, with increasing volume and higher lows. Price tested the 0.31–0.32 area multiple times—indicating persistent buying pressure and an imminent breakout.
• Last 24H: Clear breakout from 0.28 resistance to 0.32 on surging volume, with a spike to 0.337.

Interpretation: Long-term momentum is shifting bullish. The short-term structure supports continuation.

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2. Volume Analysis

• Breakout Volume: The surge towards 0.32 and above occurred on much higher volume than the preceding range. Historical acceptance above 0.30 has been limited—this breakout suggests a new accumulation phase or expansion move is starting.
• Volume Climax: Spikes in both breakout and subsequent pullback indicate strong interest, not exhaustion.

Impact: Confirmatory sign of trend strength. Institutions or large traders are likely active here.

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3. Support & Resistance

• Major Support: 0.28 (recent consolidation), secondary at 0.26 (previous pivot low), tertiary at 0.24 (June bottom).
• Immediate Resistance: 0.337–0.34 (intra-session high), followed by 0.355 (May swing high), and then 0.38–0.40 (April/May consolidation block), finally 0.48 (absolute high).
• First Retest: Pullback attempts to 0.31 and 0.314 both got aggressively bought, tracked on high-volume bars.

Interpretation: Price has reclaimed old resistance as support, flipping the market structure bullish.

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4. Candlestick/Price Action Patterns

• Ascending Triangle: Clear horizontal resistance at 0.30–0.32, with higher lows dating back to early July—textbook ascending triangle, now broken upward on volume.
• Hammer/Piercing Patterns: Multiple lower-timeframe hammers at the 0.31 retest zone show rejection of lower prices.
• Breakaway Candle: The breakout bar is large, with minimal upper wick—clear sign of demand.

Impact: Classic bullish continuation patterns after a long basing period.

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5. RSI & Momentum Oscillators

• 14-day RSI (visually estimated): Rose quickly from ~30s at June's bottom to likely ~70–75 now, entering overbought yet breakout territory.
• Short-term RSI: Just ticked above 70 on the hourly chart—momentum is strong, but not yet at historically extreme overbought levels (e.g., above 80).
• MACD (visually inferred): Histogram flipping positive, with MACD line crossing above signal line sharply. No bearish divergence seen.
• Interpretation: Momentum is strong, but after an initial fast move, there may be brief consolidation before the next leg.

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6. Moving Averages

• 20-SMA: Recently crossed above 50- and 100-period SMAs, confirming bullish momentum post-breakout.
• Price Position: Price is now extended above all key short/medium moving averages, often a sign of trend acceleration—but trailing stop should be watched on first close below the 20-SMA.

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7. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from May high 0.48 to June low 0.19):

• 38.2% retrace: ~0.30 (recent resistance)
• 50% retrace: ~0.335 (just tagged)
• 61.8% retrace: ~0.38 (next likely target)

Interpretation: Price is breaking above key Fibonacci cluster, next target is 0.38. 0.33–0.34 zone is the short-term resistance to conquer.

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8. Order Flow/Book Dynamics (inferred from volume and price bars)

• Implied Liquidity: After the breakout, shallow retracement suggests resting buy orders around 0.31–0.32.
• Trap Setup: Sellers who shorted range highs have likely been squeezed, fueling the move higher. Momentum buyers entering on the breakout.

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9. Volatility Analysis

• ATR (Average True Range): Significant expansion. Range rapidly increased from 0.008–0.012 per day in June to 0.025–0.037 in July. This supports the potential for follow-through after the breakout.

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10. Cross-Timeframe Analysis

• Multi-day Swing: The move off 0.27 is the highest-volume, strongest up-move since the initial May surge. The breakout confirms the reversal of the long-term downtrend.
• Intraday Scalping: Any deep pullback to 0.314–0.316 is likely to be aggressively defended, while upside momentum may overshoot resistance in the coming sessions.

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Final Synthesis and Prediction

All systems point to continuation: volume, momentum, structure, and market psychology converge to suggest this is the first major impulse wave after a long multi-week accumulation and correction.

• Near-Term: Expect some digestion / consolidation near 0.33–0.34 as old resistance is contested. However, the path of least resistance is higher. The next logical targets are 0.355 (May supply zone) and 0.38 (Fibonacci cluster, April/May block).
  • Probability of sharp pullback to 0.29–0.30 is low, due to the recent absorption and buy interest.
• 24-hour Prediction: Price likely to retest 0.335–0.34, consolidate, and then push towards 0.36–0.38 in the next trading cycle, with minor dips aggressively bought.

A well-timed long entry on minor retracement maximizes reward for risk. No short signal is present; contrarian shorts face significant risk.

Conclusion: Buy on small retracement for continuation to 0.38.

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Trade Setup

• Open Price: $0.316 (near retest of breakout level and 20-period SMA support on intraday timeframes)
• Target/Close Price: $0.38 (aligned with Fibonacci, historical supply, and fresh momentum)

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Risk Note:

• Place stop-loss just below 0.30 on invalidation for prudent risk management (not required in output, but for completeness).
• If price quickly breaks above 0.337, a momentum add could be triggered for the aggressive trader.