Comprehensive Technical Analysis for Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Market Structure & Price Action

Long-Term Trend (3 months)

• PNUT has displayed high volatility with several parabolic moves, most notably on 2025-05-08/09 and 2025-07-10, with strong price surges accompanied by extreme volumes.
• After the May peak above $0.48, PNUT entered a protracted decline and then oscillates between $0.19 and $0.33 from mid-June until early July.
• The latest rally in July (10th–22nd) saw PNUT recover sharply from $0.23, reaching an intramonth high of $0.337 on July 22, before retracing to $0.316 currently.

Short-Term Trend (Past 10 Days)

• Strong bullish impulse (July 9–21): $0.23 → $0.33 (approx. +43%).
• Last 24h: Extended pullback from $0.328 to $0.3156. Volatility remains high but lower than during explosive moves.
• Intraday, recent candles show upper wicks and narrowing ranges, suggesting diminishing bullish momentum and possible distribution.

2. Volume Analysis

• Major volume spikes on up-moves (May 9, July 10/13/14/16/20/21), confirming uptrends are demand-driven.
• Recent pullbacks are on lower volume, typical of profit-taking or buyers waiting for re-entry.
• Slight volume uptick on the latest retracement signals some profit-taking but no mass panic selling.

3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance: $0.33–$0.34 (multiple rejection wicks, including today's session high $0.337).
• Immediate Resistance: $0.328–$0.330 (recent intraday highs).
• Major Support: $0.29 (recent swing lows July 17 & 18 and consolidation zone).
• Next Support Zone: $0.304–$0.307 (intraday lows July 22, base of stronger prior candles).
• Key Psychological Level: $0.30 (round number, mid-July consolidation).

4. Moving Averages (MAs)

• (Calculated 7-day & 21-day SMA):
  • 7-day approx: $0.298
  • 21-day approx: $0.263
  • Current price is above both, indicating bullish bias, but perhaps temporarily overextended above the mean.
  • In near-term, price historically reverts to or tests the 7-day SMA after moves outside upper bands.

5. Momentum Oscillators

• RSI (Estimated):
  • Following strong rally, likely** above 65, approaching overbought** but not yet extreme.
  • Recent loss of momentum (several failed higher highs) could foreshadow a short RSI reversal toward the mean.
• MACD (Proxy):
  • MACD Line above Signal, but convergence is visible; a bearish crossover likely if price stays sub-$0.32 in next hours.

6. Candlestick/Pattern Analysis

• Bearish Engulfing/Doji on last intraday candles.
• Multiple upper-wick candles and small bodies indicate uncertainty and distribution after a run-up, typical of reversal/breakdown setups.
• There is a pattern of failed follow-through above $0.33, suggesting short-term exhaustion.

7. Fibonacci Retracement

• July 10 swing low $0.23 / July 21 high $0.337:
  • 23.6% retrace: $0.316
  • 38.2% retrace: $0.302
  • 50% retrace: $0.284 Current price is right at 23.6% retracement. A close below here suggests continuation to the 38.2% ($0.302) or 50% ($0.284).

8. Volatility/Bollinger Bands

• Price broke above upper band on July 21, now has snapped back inside.
• Bollinger Bands are expanding, but the price is contracting—often early warning of near-term volatility squeeze or downside.
• The width is wide; recent closes have touched or fallen inside the bands, hinting at exhausted bullish volatility.

9. Order Book (Deductive from Chart Behavior)

• Repeated upper wicks and inability to hold above $0.33–$0.34 indicate large resting sell orders are absorbing rallies.
• Support buyers appear on dips near $0.30, but with each failed rally, their conviction may weaken, increasing probability of a breakdown.

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Conclusion & 24h Forecast

• PNUT’s rapid rally appears unsustainable in the immediate term; overextension indicators (volume spike, upper wicks, near-term resistance) all suggest a healthy short-term correction is likely.
• The most probable scenario: Price will test the $0.304–0.307 support range (possibly $0.29 if momentum accelerates, matching 38–50% Fib levels).
• There is no evidence of fresh accumulation yet; the supply zone above $0.33 is persistent and aggressive.
• While the general uptrend remains intact, near-term risk-reward strongly favors a tactical short (Sell) until support is retested or a reversal structure appears on volume.

Trade Setup

• Sell (Short) at current levels ($0.3157), with an initial profit target at $0.304 (above support/Fib 38.2%).
• A more aggressive target: $0.29 (recent key swing low and historical support), but $0.304 offers high probability for partial profit taking.
• Stop-loss should be above $0.332–$0.335 (above recent highs and supply zone, invalidating the short thesis).

Bias: Tactical SELL for 24–36 hours. Larger trend reversal confirmation is required to flip bullish.

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