Exhaustive Technical Analysis – Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

Step 1: Chart Structure and Macro Trend Breakdown

• Macro Trend (3-Month View):

  • PNUT has shown large upward volatility since late April. Key spikes are visible around May 8–13 ($0.21 → $0.48), followed by significant corrections. Prices trended downward most of June (down to ~$0.20), then began rising toward July, with pronounced rallies and selloffs.
  • Support Zones: $0.20, $0.23–$0.24, $0.26, $0.28
  • Resistance Zones: $0.31–$0.33, $0.35, $0.37, $0.41

• Volume Analysis:

  • Volume spikes heavily accompany all major upward price moves, particularly in May and mid-July (notably July 10, ~$0.29–$0.30).
  • Recent drop in volume after the last rally is typical of consolidation/pullback phases.

Step 2: Recent Price Action (last week)

• 2025-07-16 to Present:
  • July 16–18: Rally ($0.27 → $0.31), then $0.29–$0.28 consolidation.
  • July 20–22: Bullish run to $0.33. Today: Sharp dip back to $0.285.
  • Bearish Engulfing Pattern: Present in last candle—a large red hourly stick wiping out previous ~36 hours of slow grind upwards.
  • Volatility: Intraday swings increased but culminating in a sharp bearish move. Price lost recent support at $0.31–$0.30 quickly and is now at support from July 15–16.

Step 3: Indicator Examination

1. Moving Averages:
   • Short-term (8, 21 EMA): Price now below both short-term EMAs (rolling 8 and 21 hours), signaling short-term momentum is bearish.
   • Medium-term (50, 100 SMA): Price is slightly above the 50-day SMA (approx. $0.277), but the gap is closing.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
   • RSI likely ~35–38 after recent drop: trending toward (but not yet at) oversold, which suggests further downside possible but some support is nearby.
3. MACD:
   • MACD histogram turning negative; signal line crossing below main line in last two sessions — classic short sell indicator.
4. Bollinger Bands:
   • Price has just punched through the lower band, which may precipitate a small technical bounce — but contextually, this usually signals increased volatility and further downside after a brief corrective move, especially in high-momentum drops.
5. Fibonacci Retracement:
   • Pulling from the July 10 high ($0.30) to the recent swing low ($0.27), we’re now testing the 61.8% retracement around $0.285, which if broken, opens the path to revisit $0.27 and $0.26 supports.

Step 4: Pattern Recognition & Price Structure

• Breakdown From Range: Recent price action represents a break below a consolidation range ($0.31–$0.33). Usually, a close beneath this range triggers a cascade of stop-loss orders and a potential move down to the next liquidity pool—likely at $0.27–$0.28.
• Failed Rally: Rapid rejection above $0.33 shows clear seller dominance at higher levels; the lack of buying support signals market exhaustion.

Step 5: Multi-Method Confirmation

• Volume + Price + Momentum Alignment:
  • Down-move on persistent (though not peak) volume, with negative width in technicals, corroborate the likelihood of a continued short-term downtrend.
• VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price):
  • Price is beneath the last several day’s VWAP. Swings below VWAP on decent volume = confirming the short thesis.
• Order Book Analysis (Implied):
  • Given historic bounces at $0.27, some buyers may step in near there; but as momentum is against them and the $0.28 level was just decisively lost, further testing of $0.27–$0.26 seems likely before any sustainable reversal.

Step 6: Risk/Reward & Entry Selection

• Entry (Sell/Short):
  • In downtrends, optimal entry is usually just after a failed bounce/countertrend rally. Given current conditions, entry immediately around $0.285–$0.288 is optimal to capture momentum.
• Target (Cover/Take Profit):
  • Next support zone at $0.266–$0.270; strong risk/reward if short entered now targeting this prior congestion zone.
  • Some buying may reemerge ahead of $0.26–$0.27 (reaction low July 13–15).

Step 7: Final Trade Plan and Rationale

• Sell here ($0.2850), cover at $0.267
• Tight stop can be set above $0.293 (just above mini-resistance / failed bounce level hourly).

Conclusion / Outlook (next 24h)

• Expect downward follow-through to $0.27. Possible mild rebound into $0.290 if oversold, but momentum setup and failed bullish attempts favor further downside.
• Decision: SELL / SHORT into downward momentum toward historical support at $0.267.

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Summary: Momentum, trend, and failed support all imply a short recommendation with an entry at $0.285 and profit target at $0.267.