PNUT Price Reversal: Exhausted Sellers Set the Stage for a V-Shaped Rally

Step 1: Multi-Timeframe Trend Assessment

Daily Chart Structure (April–July 2025)

• Major uptrend & volatility spike in early May (highs > $0.47), followed by sharp retracements, cyclical bounces.
• Late May–June: consolidation between $0.19–$0.26, lows get bought, but lower highs dominate until early July.
• July: Pattern shift—strong advance from $0.22 (July 1) to $0.33 (July 22), then sharp profit-taking back to $0.26–$0.27.
• The current price ($0.2747) sits at a mid-range inflection—above June’s support structure, but under recent resistances.

4H/Hourly Microstructure

• Last 48 hours: heavy sell-off from $0.33 (July 23) to $0.267 (July 24/25), then a choppy, volatile bottoming and a measured rally to $0.275.
• Hourly candles show aggressive buying on dips below $0.265, repeated hammering against intraday resistance at $0.275–$0.276.
• Volume faded modestly on this bounce; sellers provided little follow-through after the worst of the liquidation move, hinting at exhaustion.

Step 2: Support/Resistance Mapping

• Major Short-Term Support Zones: $0.266–$0.268 (multiple recent hourly rejections of lower prices, spike lows get absorbed, and prior VWAP zone).
• Primary Resistance Zone: $0.279–$0.282 (marked by July 13–14/23 session highs, and the breakdown pivot on July 23).

Step 3: Technical Indicator Analysis

Momentum Oscillators:

• RSI (Hourly): likely rebounding from sub-35 to 50s; classic for bottoming after a dump.
• Daily RSI: approximate neutral (mid to high 40s?)—no long-term overbought/oversold warning.
• MACD (Hourly): likely just crossing up; bearish momentum exhausted.

Volatility (ATR)

• Daily ATR expanded during the dump but compressing into the bounce—signals a coiled potential for a more directional move soon.

Moving Averages

• 20MA (Hourly): likely around $0.272, just crossed.
• 50MA (Hourly): acting as dynamic resistance at $0.277.
• Price has re-captured 20MA, closing in on 50MA, hinting at a possible bullish crossover if strength is sustained.

Step 4: Pattern Recognition & Volume Profile

• Recent structure suggests an abrupt liquidation followed by a V-shaped base—textbook stop-hunt/bottom-fishing setup.
• Volume climax during the drop, then declining—typically marks capitulation, i.e., sellers are spent.
• Absorption at $0.266–$0.267: Indicates whales/material buyers are lurking, mopping up panic sellers.

Step 5: Orderflow & Sentiment Synthesis

• The sharp run-ups and flushes indicate reactive, retail-driven orderflow. Post-panic, larger players appear to be accumulating.
• No follow-on volume after breakdown = buyers have stepped in, limiting further downside.

Step 6: Risk/Reward Scenarios and Trade Setup

• Upside: Bounce toward $0.279–$0.281 (gap fill, supply zone, 50MA resistance).
• Downside: Key defense at $0.265–$0.266 (break here risks cascading back to $0.258 or lower).
• Risk/reward is optimal for a tactical long—tight stop below $0.266, target resistance ladder above.

Step 7: Catalysts & Context

• No immediate news/fundamental triggers, but technical factors overwhelming.

Step 8: Synthesis & Final Decision

All major technicals and orderflow studies point to an exhausted selling phase with buyers regaining short-term control. The equilibrium is shifting upward, capped by resistance at $0.279–$0.282, with support firming near $0.266. Probability is weighted toward a mean-reversion rally within the next 24 hours, targeting resistance area.

Buy decision: Enter as close to $0.272–0.274 as possible, target $0.281–0.282 for exit.

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Summary: Short-term bottoming structure, bullish momentum on micro-frames, multiple support tests absorbed, consolidating for a relief bounce. Risk tightly managed below $0.266.