Detailed Technical Analysis for Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)

1. Price Action & Trend Assessment

Long-Term Trend (Daily View)

• Early May 2025: Large breakout with significant volume seen on May 8-11. Price surged from $0.15 zone to as high as $0.48, then rapidly retraced to the $0.30–0.40 range.
• Mid-May to June: Persistent, steady decline. Successive lower highs and lower lows, punctuated by short-lived upward corrections.
• Late June–July: More pronounced volatility, with sharp moves (~$0.19–$0.33) and greater intraday price swings.
• Last 7–14 days: Very strong downward break, especially July 23–31, plunging from ~$0.32 to ~$0.23, marking a crucial support breakdown.

Short-Term Trend (Last 48 hrs)

• Aug 1-2 Intraday Candles: Wavering between $0.213–$0.23, with sharp downside wicks on Aug 2.
• Current Price: $0.216 – near the lower bounds of the recent trading range.

2. Support & Resistance Analysis

• Immediate Resistance: Recent highs at $0.223–$0.225 ($0.227 intraday peak on Aug 2).
• Strong Resistance: $0.23–$0.255 (July 29–31 pre-breakdown range).
• Critical Support: $0.212–$0.214 (intraday double bottom, Aug 2 17-18:00; tested multiple times)
• Potential Lower Support: $0.197–$0.204 (June 21 swing low).

3. Volume Profile

• Long-Term: Highest volumes on May surges and June flushes—these tend to coincide with breakouts or breakdowns.
• Recently: Lower volume, with occasional spikes on sell-offs. Past 24 hours show increasing volume on red candles, signaling strong selling pressure.

4. Volatility & Momentum Oscillators

• ATR (Average True Range): Spiked heavily in late July; remains elevated, confirming high volatility.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index), Approximated: Judging from successive lower lows and inability to hold rebounds, likely trending sub-35—which is generally considered oversold but stable during bear trends.
• Momentum: No sustainable upside, repeated failed bounces from $0.220s. Downside momentum persists.

5. Candlestick Patterns

• Multiple Rejection Candles: On intraday and daily timeframes, repeated long upper wicks between $0.223–$0.226 (Aug 2; July 30-31). Suggests powerful sell pressure when price approaches these levels.
• No Clear Reversal Candles (Hammer, Engulfing): Most recent candles are either short-bodied or have lower closes, typical in persistent downtrends.

6. Moving Averages (Implied)

• Short-Term (5–10 day): Rough estimate places these trending sharply downward, likely above current price, now acting as dynamic resistance (~$0.23–$0.25).
• Medium-Term (20–50 day): Rolling over from steep uptrend in June, now declining and much higher than current levels ($0.25–$0.28).

7. Fibonacci Levels (Recent High to Low)

• Swing High (Jul 22: $0.337) to Recent Intraday Low ($0.213):
  • 38.2% retracement ≈ $0.257
  • 50% retracement ≈ $0.275
  • 61.8% retracement ≈ $0.292
• Current price is far below any meaningful retracement levels.

8. Pattern Recognition

• Descending Channel/Flag: Since late June, PNUT appears trapped in a clear descending channel. Each attempt at reversal is met with supply floods.
• Failed Support Flip: Recent $0.23–$0.24 area (formerly support) now acting as resistance.

9. Order Book/Liquidity Inference (from Candle Structure)

• Slippage and Quick Candles: Downward moves are often swift, with low-volume bounces—indicative of thin books below support zones.

10. Intermarket/Relative Analysis

• Lack of Positive Divergence: No significant bullish divergence between price and volume; every attempt at rebound is sold into, with rallies short-lived.

11. Sentiment & Psychology

• Bearish: Pattern is characteristic of late-stage panic/capitulation or bearish continuation. Repeated failed bounces and rapid rejection from attempted rallies reinforce negative sentiment.
• No Clear Capitulation Bottom: No extreme spike or V-reversal, indicating sellers remain in control.

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Synthesis and Prediction

• Immediate Outlook: Persistent pressure, failed retest of former support, no reversal signal. $0.212–$0.214 has held so far, but each bounce is weaker, suggesting imminent breakdown.
• 24-Hour Projection: Very likely to test $0.212 support once again. If broken, would target $0.197 as the next support. Little evidence of immediate recovery; any upside rebound likely capped at $0.223–$0.226.

Trading Strategy Recommendation

• Bias: SELL—short-term downside continuation is far more probable.
• Optimal Entry: Enter near $0.216 (current price/just above) to maximize risk/reward as price teeters at support.
• Optimal Close/Take Profit: Target $0.198 (near next clear support, measured by prior consolidation area from late June).
• Stop Loss (suggested, not in prompt): $0.226 (to manage risk; just above strong intraday rejection zone).

Summary: Multiple timeframes confirm persistent downtrend. Bounces are quickly sold into; volume and candle structure confirm supply dominates demand. Absent a high-volume reversal or clear bullish pattern, the next 24 hours likely see a break lower. Short rallies to $0.22–$0.225 remain good areas to add to shorts. High-probability trade is SELL, aiming for lower support at $0.198.

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