PNUT teeters on the ledge: expect a weak bounce into supply, then a push toward 0.216

Summary view

• Bias next 24 hours: Bearish-to-sideways with a drift lower. Expect a weak bounce into nearby supply (≈0.225–0.227) followed by continuation toward 0.218–0.216 if supply holds.
• Rationale: Persistent downtrend across the daily and intraday structures, price below key moving averages and VWAP, fresh lower-low made today, and a large prior-range breakdown (Aug 14) with expanding volatility. Supports below (0.219/0.216/0.212) are close enough to be probed within 24h if liquidity thins into the weekend.

1. Multi-timeframe price action and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily)

  • Trend: Lower highs and lower lows since late July peak (~0.338 on 7/20–7/22 cluster). Failed rally attempts in late July and early August rolled over into a decisive selloff on Aug 14 (open 0.2629 → close 0.2282), expanding range to the downside.
  • Structure: Break of the 0.24–0.245 balance area, now acting as overhead supply. The current daily close-in-progress near 0.223 is below that lost balance and hugging the lower quadrant of the recent two-week range. That is typical of bearish continuation phases.
  • Key levels mapped from daily candles:
    • Resistance/supply: 0.229–0.231 (intraday base turned supply), 0.235–0.236, 0.240–0.245, 0.258–0.263 (major), 0.270–0.280 (macro supply shelf).
    • Support/demand: 0.221–0.223 (current micro base), 0.218–0.219 (prior closes/lows 8/2, 8/5, intraday 8/15), 0.215–0.216 (composite shelf), 0.212–0.213 (pivot S1 cluster and June swing confluence), 0.205–0.206 (late-June/early-July node).
  • Candlestick context: Aug 14 printed a long-bodied bearish candle (near-Marubozu). Today is a small-bodied follow-through day near the lows, not a clear reversal (no convincing hammer/shadow reclaim). This combination tends to resolve lower unless swiftly negated by a strong close back above the prior day’s midpoint (~0.246), which is far away.

• Intraday (hourly) last 24 hours

  • Sequence: 0.2353 morning high → steady bleed to 0.221–0.222 with shallow bounces. Lower highs at ~0.2336 → 0.2318 → 0.2300 → 0.227 → 0.224 → 0.223. Fresh low prints around 0.219–0.221 area intraday. Structure remains a descending channel with supply stepping down.
  • VWAP: Price has trended and held below intraday VWAP most of the day; bounces into VWAP/supply were sold. This confirms sellers in control intraday.
  • Liquidity: The 0.221–0.223 band is getting tapped repeatedly, suggesting weakening bids. Liquidity pockets lie just below at 0.219 and 0.216—ripe for a sweep if 0.221 caves.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Simple/Exponential MAs (approximate read)
  • Price below 20D, 50D, and 100D MAs after Aug 14 breakdown; the short MAs are now curling down. The 20D MA likely sits near ~0.245–0.250, 50D higher (~0.26–0.27). This MA stack is fully bearish (price < 20D < 50D).
  • EMA ribbon (8–21): Bearishly fanned with price consistently beneath. Pullbacks into the ribbon (~0.229–0.235) have been rejected.
• Trend conclusion: Momentum and trend filters align bearish across timeframes.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI (14D, est.): Oscillating in a bear range (40–50 caps rallies; 30–40 catches sell pressure). After Aug 14, it likely slipped toward high-30s. Not deeply oversold enough to demand a durable bounce; can grind lower.
• Stochastics: Pinned low for multiple sessions—typical in downtrends as price rides the lower band. Can stay oversold.
• MACD: Below zero with negative histogram since the late-July rollover. Any hourly timeframe histogram contraction is tepid; the signal line remains pointed down overall.
• Momentum conclusion: Bearish with potential for only weak mean reversion before continuation.

4. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Bands expanded sharply on Aug 14 (range break). Current price rides the lower band on daily; mid-band sits near ~0.245. In strong downtrends, lower-band riding can continue with only shallow mean reversion. Expect intraday pops to be sold into until mid-band is reclaimed, which is unlikely within 24h without a catalyst.

5. Ichimoku Cloud (contextual)

• Price is well below the cloud on daily and hourly. Tenkan-sen < Kijun-sen and both above price; the Kijun (baseline) near ~0.24 is an obvious magnet only if sellers lose control. Cloud forward span tilts bearish (thick, red), favoring continuation lower.

6. Volume, profile, and participation

• Volume patterns: Elevated distribution on the July 20–22 pop, then heavy selling clusters around July 23, Aug 10–15. Aug 14’s breakdown had strong participation—this often seeds continued follow-through as trapped longs seek exits on bounces.
• Volume profile: Visible nodes around 0.24–0.245 and 0.258–0.263 (former value areas). We’re now in a lower-value pocket where the 0.219–0.216 zone shows prior activity; acceptance there is plausible if 0.221 breaks.

7. Market geometry and Fibonacci

• From the Aug 10 swing high (~0.2631) to today’s intraday low (~0.219), retracement levels:
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.235, 50% ≈ 0.241, 61.8% ≈ 0.247.
  • These align with mapped supply. Any bounce into 0.235–0.241 likely stalls on first test.
• Measured move symmetry: The Aug 14 impulse projects a continuation target into 0.216–0.212 on a second leg. This coincides with classical S1/S2 pivots (see below), strengthening the case.

8. Classical pivots (using 8/14 H/L/C ≈ 0.2679/0.2241/0.2282)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.2401; R1 ≈ 0.2561; S1 ≈ 0.2123; R2 ≈ 0.2839; S2 ≈ 0.1963.
• Price is below P and has failed any R-side tests. Gravity toward S1 (0.212–0.213) is in play within 1–2 sessions if 0.221 fails; 24h scope favors probing 0.216–0.218, with 0.212 possible on momentum extension.

9. Pattern analysis

• Descending channel/flag: Post-breakdown consolidation has formed a tight, downward-sloping channel on the hourly; breakdowns from such structures often resolve with another push lower before a more durable base forms.
• No confirmed reversal pattern (no double bottom, no strong bullish divergence). Any intraday bullish divergences are weak and have not reclaimed structure.

10. Statistical/mean-reversion context

• Z-score vs 20D mean likely around -1 to -1.5 after the Aug 14 slide—bearish but not extreme. This supports the idea of a small bounce that fails rather than a sharp V-reversal.
• Weekend effect: Liquidity typically thins; downside wicks and stop-runs below obvious supports (0.219/0.216) become more likely.

11. Scenario mapping (next 24h)

• Base case (60%): Fade a minor bounce. Price tags 0.225–0.227 supply, stalls under VWAP/EMA ribbon, rotates lower to test 0.219, then probes 0.217–0.216. Closing near 0.218–0.221.
• Bear extension (25%): Supply overwhelms quickly; 0.221 snaps with momentum, drives to 0.214–0.212 (S1 zone). Possible wick into 0.210–0.212 then snapback to 0.216–0.218.
• Bull surprise (15%): Strong reclaim above 0.231–0.233, squeeze into 0.235–0.241. Needs breadth/volume. Probability lower without catalyst; risk of rejection at 0.235 remains high.

12. Trade plan logic and risk framing

• Edge: Trend-following with bounce-sell bias; confluence from moving averages, VWAP behavior, pivot map, and failed rallies.
• Entry: Prefer selling a bounce into the first supply shelf (0.225–0.227) rather than chasing lows, to improve R:R and reduce whipsaw risk.
• Stop (invalidation guide, not part of order fields): Above 0.231–0.233 cluster (ideally 0.2328–0.2336), where hourly structure would break and open path to 0.235–0.241.
• Target: 0.216–0.217 initial, with extension potential to 0.212 on momentum. For 24h, a conservative TP at ~0.2168 balances capture and fill probability.
• R:R example (illustrative): Short 0.2252, stop 0.2329 (+3.4%), TP 0.2168 (-3.7%) → ~1.1:1; tighter stop at 0.2310 improves R:R to ~1.8:1. Scaling-in near 0.227 increases expectancy but with lower fill odds.

13. What would change my mind

• Strong reclaim and hold above 0.231–0.233 on rising volume, plus an hourly close above 0.235, would shift bias to neutral/constructive for a mean-reversion run toward 0.241–0.247.

Bottom line

• The path of least resistance remains lower. Favor selling a bounce into 0.225–0.227 with a target near 0.216–0.217 over the next 24 hours. Optional extension into 0.212 if momentum accelerates, but using ~0.2168 as the primary take-profit is prudent given weekend liquidity dynamics.