PNUT at the Peanut Line: Buy the Dip Near 0.229, Sell Into 0.239 Within 24 Hours

Executive summary and next-24h bias

• Regime: Range-bound, mildly bearish drift on the daily, mean-reversion favorable for the next 24 hours.
• Bias: Modest upside from current $0.2304 toward $0.236–0.240; resistance capped near $0.240–0.241. Support at $0.226–0.227.
• Plan (24h): Buy the dip around $0.229–0.230, target the overhead supply shelf at $0.239–0.240.

1. Multi-timeframe trend and structure

• Higher timeframe (Daily):
  • From late May high ($0.414) to late June low ($0.195), PNUT established a broad downtrend, then carved a sideways-to-lower range since July. The July relief rally topped ~0.338 (Jul 20) and faded into August.
  • Current daily structure is a sequence of lower highs (Jul 22 ~0.329, Jul 27–31 ~0.287–0.233, Aug 13 ~0.263), with higher lows versus the Aug 2 pivot (~0.218) forming a contracting range. This is a mild descending channel/wedge inside a broader range.
  • Key daily levels: • Major resistance: 0.246–0.249 (50% retrace of the Aug 13→Aug 15 swing; volume shelf), then 0.260–0.263 (Aug 13 high zone, Bollinger upper vicinity). • Near-term resistance: 0.236–0.240 (rejected multiple times; today’s intraday push to ~0.238 faded quickly). • Support: 0.226–0.227 (Aug 15 close/cluster), 0.2239–0.2242 (S2/past pivot), and 0.218 (Aug 2 low).
• Intraday (Hourly, last 24h):
  • Attempted pop to ~0.238 at 16:00 Z was faded, then price rotated back to 0.229–0.231. Clear supply at 0.236–0.238, demand emerges ~0.229–0.230 (multiple reactions), making a tight micro-range.
  • Market is oscillatory; no impulsive trend follow-through on either side during the day, which supports a range trade for the next session.

2. Moving averages and trend filters

• Daily simple moving averages (approx):
  • 5SMA ≈ 0.235 (price 0.230 < 5SMA) – short-term negative.
  • 10SMA ≈ 0.241 (price below) – negative.
  • 20SMA ≈ 0.237 (price below) – mild negative.
  • 50SMA ≈ 0.255–0.260 (price well below) – medium-term negative. Interpretation: Bearish alignment on daily MAs, but price sits only ~0.7x 20D ATR below the 20SMA, making a mean-reversion push to the 20SMA plausible in 24h.
• Hourly EMAs: Price oscillates around the 20/50-EMA on hourly; slope is flat-to-slightly down, consistent with range-with-drift. Pullbacks into the 20/50-EMA area have been bought intraday near 0.229–0.231.

3. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily (est.): mid-40s to high-40s; neutral-bearish but not oversold. Plenty of room for a bounce.
• RSI(14) Hourly: Stabilized in the 40–50 zone after rejecting ~0.238, with subtle bullish divergence vs the minor LLs at ~19:00–20:00 (price made a marginal new intraday low vs RSI flat-to-up), hinting at a small upside rotation.
• MACD Daily: Histogram slightly negative post-Aug 13 pullback, but flattening; potential for a small positive inflection if price reclaims 0.236–0.238. Not a strong buy signal, but it reduces downside momentum risk.
• Stochastics Daily: Mid-range (30–50). Supports mean reversion more than trend continuation.
• ADX (est., Daily): Sub-15 regime suggests a non-trending environment; oscillators tend to work better → favor range trades.

4. Volatility and Bollinger context

• ATR(14) Daily ≈ 0.011–0.013 (5% of price). A 1x ATR move from 0.230 suggests 0.219–0.241 day-range potential; a target in the 0.239–0.240 area is inside one ATR, thus feasible within 24 hours.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) Daily (est.):
  • Middle band ≈ 0.237 (20SMA), upper ≈ 0.260–0.261, lower ≈ 0.213–0.214.
  • Current price is in the lower third of the band, historically leading to reversion toward the middle band (~0.237). Today’s intraday rejection at ~0.238 aligns with the mid-band; expecting another attempt if buyers hold 0.229–0.230.

5. Ichimoku Cloud (Daily, approximated)

• Price below the cloud → medium-term bearish. However, Kijun (26-period baseline) is likely flat near ~0.236–0.237. Flat Kijun often acts as a magnet; a reversion to Kijun aligns with a 0.236–0.238 bounce target. Tenkan is likely below Kijun and near price (0.231–0.233), reinforcing that reclaiming Tenkan invites a test of Kijun.

6. Fibonacci mapping

• Swing A: Jul 20 high (~0.338) to Jun 22–23 low (~0.195) gives retracements in play:
  • 61.8% from the high sits ~0.249–0.250; price below = medium-term weakness.
  • 78.6% from the high sits ~0.225–0.226; this area provided support Aug 14–15. Current price is above this deep retracement → support is respected.
• Swing B: Aug 13 high (0.2631) to Aug 15 low (0.2264):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.2406; 50% ≈ 0.2448. The rebound stalled just under 38.2% (0.238–0.240). Expect another probe of that 38.2% pocket on a typical ABC correction.

7. Volume, OBV, and flow

• Volume trend: August volumes are notably lighter than July’s surge; breakouts have lower odds. Range continuation is more probable near-term.
• OBV and Acc/Dist (qualitative): Sideways to slightly down since Aug 13; not showing heavy distribution at lows. The quick fade at 0.238 indicates resting supply but no aggressive selling afterward; demand reliably appears ~0.229–0.230.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Likely near neutral, with brief positive blips on intraday upticks; no strong accumulation, but no capitulation either.

8. Market profile / liquidity map

• Visible volume profile over the past ~3–4 weeks suggests a POC around 0.229–0.231 (numerous closes/trades congregate). Price tends to revert to this node and oscillate toward the next liquidity shelf at 0.236–0.240.
• The 0.236–0.240 region combines: prior intraday highs, daily mid-BB, and local volume shelf → first resistance/target.

9. Candlestick and pattern read

• Daily candles (Aug 14–17): small-bodied candles near support → indecision but with bear momentum waning.
• Hourly: A shooting-star-like rejection at ~16:00 Z near 0.238 was not followed by heavy selling; subsequent hours formed higher lows vs prior minor low, supporting a second attempt higher if 0.229 holds.
• Structure resembles a micro Wyckoff range: a successful secondary test above the 0.226–0.227 shelf, then a shallow pullback, suggesting absorption of supply into 0.229–0.231.

10. VWAPs and mean-reversion anchors

• Session VWAP (intraday, est.) ~0.232–0.233; price below VWAP tends to magnet back in range regimes. A move to 0.236–0.238 would represent a standard VWAP recapture plus extension to resistance.
• Anchored VWAP from Aug 13 high likely sits ~0.236–0.237; that matches our target cluster, reinforcing the sell wall just overhead.

11. Risk framework and scenarios (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Range reversion higher. Hold 0.229–0.230, rotate to 0.236–0.240, possibly wick to 0.240–0.241, then settle back mid-range.
• Bear case (≈25%): Lose 0.229 → 0.226–0.227 test. If 0.226 breaks on volume, slide to 0.224 and maybe 0.221–0.223. Less likely absent a volatility catalyst.
• Bull extension (≈15%): Clean reclaim of 0.2406 (38.2% fib) on volume opens 0.244–0.246. With low August volumes, sustained breakout is lower probability in 24h.

12. Synthesis and trade plan

• Despite the medium-term bearish backdrop (MAs down, below cloud), the immediate setup is mean-reversion friendly: price is below 20SMA, oscillators neutral, ADX low, and there is a well-defined liquidity shelf at 0.236–0.240 to target.
• R/R is favorable buying near 0.229 with a target just below the 0.240 wall. A prudent stop (not required in order output, but recommended) would be around 0.2247 (beneath S1/S2 cluster), giving a R:R ≈ 2.3:1 for TP at ~0.239.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• Expect chop with a mild upward skew: 0.226–0.238 range, with spikes toward 0.239–0.240 likely if 0.229 holds. Plan: Buy dips around 0.229 and sell into 0.239.