PNUT Breaks Out of Its Burrow: Dip-Buy Setup Targets the 0.24 Handle

Executive summary

• Bias next 24h: Mildly bullish, looking for a dip-and-rip. Expect a retest of 0.228–0.230 as support, then a push into 0.236–0.242 resistance. Probability-weighted close biased toward 0.236–0.239.
• Trade idea: Buy-the-dip into 0.229–0.230 with targets below 0.241–0.243 supply.

1. Price action and market structure

• Higher time frame (daily): From the late-July swing high (0.3295 on Jul-22) PNUT trended down to a swing low at 0.2085 (Aug-19), then based for two sessions and impulsed higher today. Structure has shifted from a sequence of lower lows to a potential higher-low/higher-high transition. Today’s candle (intraday) is a wide-range bullish day that engulfs the prior day’s body and reclaims multiple prior pivots (0.221, 0.225, 0.228).
• Intermediate structure: Key reclaimed levels today: 0.2210 (R1 pivot from yesterday), 0.225–0.226 zone (mid-July micro-pivot), 0.2289 (R2 pivot). Price stalled near 0.2332 (R3 pivot) late session.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear breakout at 14:00 UTC from 0.210–0.214 balance, with a Marubozu-style expansion candle to 0.2233 on elevated volume, then steady grind to 0.232–0.233. Post-break consolidation is tight (20:00–21:00), indicative of a bull flag rather than a sharp rejection.

2. Key levels (confluence from prior OHLC, recent pivots, and fibs)

• Immediate resistance: 0.2333 (R3 pivot from Aug-21), 0.236–0.238 (Aug-7/8 closes and supply shelf), 0.240–0.242 (round-number and July micro-shelf). Above that: 0.247–0.251 and 0.258–0.263 (late-July congestion), then 0.268–0.271.
• Immediate support: 0.229–0.230 (R2 pivot 0.22894, broken resistance), 0.225–0.226 (former pivot), 0.221 (yesterday’s R1), 0.218–0.219, 0.213–0.214, 0.208–0.209 (swing low).
• Fibonacci retracements (Jul-22 high 0.3295 to Aug-19 low 0.2085): 23.6% = 0.2370 (matches resistance cluster), 38.2% ≈ 0.2547, 50% ≈ 0.2690, 61.8% ≈ 0.2834. Price is approaching the first fib resistance at 0.237, so a reaction is likely on first test.

3. Moving averages (daily)

• SMA20 ≈ 0.2329 (computed from the last 20 daily closes). Price ~0.2324 is basically kissing the 20D mean after lifting off the lower band area—classic mean-reversion achieved with potential to ride the upper half of the Bollinger envelope if momentum persists.
• SMA50 (est.): skewed by July’s 0.28–0.31 range; likely ~0.255–0.260. Price remains below SMA50—medium-term trend still down, but momentum is shifting up.
• EMA cluster view (estimates): EMA8 ~0.229–0.231, EMA21 ~0.235–0.237. Price has reclaimed EMA8; a push/hold above ~0.236 (EMA21/Kijun area) would confirm a short-term trend flip.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) daily ≈ 42 (approx calc). Rising from sub-40 readings—bullish from oversold, but not overbought; ample room to 50–60 if resistance breaks.
• Hourly RSI: post-breakout, likely 60–70. No obvious bearish divergence on the latest push; momentum is orderly, not spiky.
• MACD daily: Histogram contracting toward zero; cross up is plausible within 1–3 sessions if price can hold above 0.23–0.234. Hourly MACD is already positive and widening, consistent with a trending intraday.
• Stochastics daily: Hooking up from oversold area; intraday stochastic will be elevated—favors buy-the-dip vs. buying breakouts into resistance.

5. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.017–0.019. From 0.232, a 0.5x ATR expansion implies reachable topside to ~0.241–0.242 within 24h; a full ATR could challenge ~0.249–0.251 if momentum accelerates.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid ~0.233; lower ~0.200–0.205; upper ~0.260–0.265 (approx). Price has reverted to the mean; next step in a constructive scenario is a walk-up toward the upper half of the band (0.240s first, then mid-0.25s if sustained).

6. Volume, OBV, participation

• Today’s breakout hour (14:00 UTC) showed a distinct volume spike—confirming participation on the move. Subsequent hours maintained net-positive closes on modest volume, typical of constructive consolidations after impulsive legs. On-balance volume (qualitatively) is turning up; that supports dip-buys into reclaimed levels.

7. Ichimoku framework (daily, heuristic)

• Price likely below the cloud; Tenkan (~9-period) rising around 0.228; Kijun (~26) near 0.239. Current price above Tenkan but below Kijun and cloud: classic early-stage transition. A decisive reclaim above 0.239–0.241 would place price above Kijun, increasing odds of a trend shift.

8. ADX/DMI (hourly)

• ADX(14) hourly is likely in the low-to-mid 20s and rising after today’s expansion; +DI > -DI. Trend condition is present intraday; that favors continuation after shallow pullbacks.

9. Pivot point map (classic) based on Aug-21 H/L/C (0.224558 / 0.212220 / 0.213016)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.2166
• R1 ≈ 0.2210
• R2 ≈ 0.2289
• R3 ≈ 0.2333
• S1 ≈ 0.2086, S2 ≈ 0.2043, S3 ≈ 0.1966 Observation: Price reclaimed R1 and R2 and tagged R3 (0.2333). Typical behavior after an R3 tag in a newly-trending tape is a pullback toward R2/R1, then a second attempt higher. That underpins a buy-limit plan near 0.229–0.230.

10. Pattern read

• Bull flag (hourly): Tight consolidation from 19:00–21:00 after an impulsive leg suggests a continuation attempt once dip liquidity is filled.
• Base breakout: The 0.210–0.214 range was broken with authority; as long as price holds above 0.221–0.225, the breakout remains intact.
• Emerging W/basement formation: Dual lows at 0.2085 (Aug-19) and a higher reaction low ~0.213 (Aug-21 intraday) form a nascent W. Neckline lies 0.228–0.230; it has just been cleared.

11. Statistical bias and expected path (24h)

• Base case (~55%): Early dip into 0.229–0.230 (R2 / neckline retest), buyers defend, push into 0.236–0.238 (fib 23.6% + supply) with intraday high 0.239–0.242, and a close around 0.236–0.239.
• Bull case (~25%): Shallow dip (0.231–0.232) or no dip; direct break 0.2333 -> 0.236–0.238 -> extension to 0.242–0.245 if momentum/volume expands. Close 0.240–0.244.
• Bear case (~20%): Failure to hold 0.229; slide to 0.225–0.226 (prior pivot). If that breaks, 0.221 and 0.218–0.219 next. This would negate the immediate bull flag but keep the larger base intact above 0.213/0.208.

12. Risk management, R:R, and execution

• Setup: Buy limit on pullback into 0.229–0.230 where R2/neckline converges.
• Protective context: A protective stop (not required by prompt, but analytically relevant) would sit below 0.221–0.222 (under reclaimed R1 and the breakout shelf), ideally ~0.2195 to avoid stop hunts. That yields roughly 1:1.5 to 1:2 to a 0.241–0.243 target.
• Take-profit logic: First scale target is the 0.236–0.238 band (fib 23.6% and recent supply). A swing/24h target just below psychological 0.241–0.243 increases fill probability while respecting ATR.

13. Cross-method confirmation

• MA stack: Price reclaimed EMA8/SMA20 and is approaching EMA21/Kijun near 0.236–0.239—consistent with a buy-the-dip plan aiming for that test.
• Bollinger midline retake: Now above the midline and curling up—supports continuation.
• Fib + Pivot confluence: 0.229–0.230 (R2/neckline) as pullback buy; 0.237–0.238 (23.6% fib) as first resistance/target.
• OBV/Volume thrust: Expansion on breakout and controlled consolidation afterwards—a hallmark of trend change attempts.
• ADX/Ichimoku: Early-stage trend confirmation on lower time frames with room on higher time frames if Kijun/EMA21 clears.

14. Elliott wave lens (heuristic)

• Potential wave 1: 0.2085 -> 0.233
• Wave 2 pullback candidate: 0.229–0.230
• Wave 3 objective within 24–48h: 0.241–0.246 (aligns with fib 23.6% break and approach toward 0.247–0.251 supply).

15. What would invalidate

• A sustained break back below 0.225–0.226 (failed breakout) or, more decisively, a loss of 0.221 followed by acceptance below 0.218. That would convert the setup into a fade back toward 0.213/0.208.

Conclusion and 24h forecast

• The balance of evidence (breakout + momentum + volume + reclaimed pivots) favors buying a pullback. Expect a retest of 0.229–0.230 early, then an advance into 0.236–0.242. Highest-probability take-profit sits just under the 0.241 handle to avoid getting front-run by sellers at the fib/supply cluster.