PNUT poised for a tactical bounce: aiming at the 0.224–0.229 supply wall within 24 hours

Summary view

• Instrument: PNUT (Peanut the Squirrel)
• Current price: 0.21678442
• Timeframe analyzed: Daily (last ~90 days) and Hourly (last 24–36 hours)
• Bias next 24h: Tactical bullish bounce within a broader downtrend

1. Price structure and trend context (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from late July peak (~0.329–0.337) to the Aug 25 capitulation low (0.1984). Primary trend remains bearish.
• Short-term (hourly) structure: Since the 0.1984 low (Aug 25), price has carved a series of higher lows: ~0.2013 → 0.205 → 0.209 → 0.213–0.215 → 0.216–0.217. This is a constructive relief-rally structure. An ascending triangle is visible intraday with horizontal resistance clustered at 0.2175–0.2185.
• Regime take: Downtrend on daily; mean-reversion/relief rally on intraday. Expect choppy upside into first overhead supply bands.

2. Support and resistance mapping (confluence-driven)

• Immediate supports: 0.2130–0.2150 (hourly demand, rising short-term MA cluster), 0.2094 (5:00 hr swing base), 0.202–0.205 (post-selloff base), 0.1984 (capitulation low; key invalidation).
• Immediate resistances: 0.2175–0.2185 (hourly ceiling/triangle top), 0.2220–0.2240 (classic pivot R1 zone), 0.2290–0.2300 (23.6% Fibonacci of the July-high → Aug 25 low; heavy volume node), 0.236–0.240 (prior daily supply and 20D mean area), 0.248–0.250 (38.2% Fib), 0.255–0.260 (mid-July reaction zone).
• Confluence highlight: 0.229–0.230 aligns with 23.6% Fib, July/Aug congestion, and visible volume/supply overhead → high-probability near-term cap.

3. Moving averages (approximate) and slope assessment

• Daily 20SMA ≈ 0.236 (downsloping). Daily 50SMA ≈ 0.255–0.260 (downsloping). Price is below both → structural bearish backdrop.
• Short-term hourly 20EMA > 50EMA after today’s climb; both are curling up around 0.213–0.215. That supports dip-buying toward the 0.214–0.215 zone.

4. Momentum and oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily: Likely recovering from oversold low-30s to mid/high-30s. This supports a bounce but not yet a full trend reversal.
• RSI Hourly: ~55–60 (estimated) with shallow bear divergences absent; suggests room to test 0.218–0.224 before becoming overbought.
• Stochastic Daily: Turning up from oversold; early-stage cross favors continuation of a relief move.
• MACD Daily: Below zero, but histogram has started contracting toward zero (bullish momentum inflection). A weak bullish crossover could form if price holds above 0.213–0.215 for another session.
• MACD Hourly: Above signal/zero or near crossover; aligns with intraday bid.

5. Volatility, range, and risk parameters

• Recent daily ranges imply ATR(14) ≈ 0.018–0.022. From 0.2168, a 1x ATR upside stretches into 0.235–0.239, while a 0.5x ATR upside reaches ~0.225–0.228. Thus, a test of 0.224–0.229 within 24h is plausible.
• Bandwidth/Bollinger (Daily): Price rebounded off/near the lower band (approx ~0.205–0.208). Mean reversion typically targets the mid-band (~20SMA ≈ 0.236) over multiple sessions; first 24h objective is the sub-midband supply at 0.222–0.230.

6. Ichimoku (Daily, approximate)

• Price below cloud; Kumo still bearish. Tenkan likely ~0.221 and Kijun near ~0.236. A near-term Tenkan reclaim is feasible; Kijun resistance at ~0.236 aligns with the 20SMA and daily supply. This supports the 0.222–0.230 interim targets, with 0.236 as stretch.

7. Fibonacci context (swing July 22 high to Aug 25 low)

• Swing high: ~0.3295 (using 0.3295–0.337 cluster)
• Swing low: 0.198386
• 23.6%: ~0.2293 → first significant retracement; strong near-term magnet/resistance.
• 38.2%: ~0.2485; secondary upside level beyond 24h unless momentum accelerates.
• 50%: ~0.2639; unlikely in 24h without a regime change.

8. Classical pivots (derived from Aug 25 H/L/C: 0.23284/0.19839/0.20238)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.2112. Price is trading above P → bullish intraday bias.
• R1 ≈ 0.2240 (first objective). R2 ≈ 0.2457 (outside 24h unless breakout accelerates). S1 ≈ 0.1896 (not in play unless breakdown resumes).

9. Volume and market profile observations

• Daily volumes expanded into the selloff (capitulation tone) and then receded; today’s intraday up-move occurred on respectable pockets of volume (notably 05:00 hr). Expect supply to re-emerge between 0.222 and 0.230 where a heavy prior volume node sits.
• VWAP (today, intraday, approximate): Price reclaimed and is holding above session VWAP bands, typical of controlled, stair-step recoveries.

10. Pattern diagnostics

• Hourly ascending triangle: Rising higher lows pushing against 0.218 handle. A decisive hourly close >0.2185 opens 0.222–0.224 quickly; sustained push could tag 0.228–0.230 where sellers likely fade the move.
• Candles: Post-capitulation small-bodied higher closes. No topping wick structure yet on the hourlies near 0.218, suggesting the breakout attempt remains valid.

11. Scenario mapping (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Break 0.2185 → probe 0.222–0.224 (R1). Momentum follow-through lifts into 0.227–0.229. Sellers fade near 0.229–0.230. Close back around 0.223–0.226.
• Pullback-first (30%): Retest 0.214–0.215 (MA cluster) before the breakout attempt. As long as 0.213 holds, the bullish path remains intact. Then same upside sequence.
• Bearish failure (15%): Lose 0.213 → revisit 0.209–0.210 and possibly 0.205–0.206. A daily close back under 0.209 would negate the bounce and re-open 0.202–0.198.

12. Trade plan logic

• Rationale to go long: Oversold bounce from the lower Bollinger band; intraday higher lows; price above daily pivot; MACD histogram improving; RSI recovering but not overbought; clean, nearby invalidation below 0.213/0.209. Upside into 0.224–0.229 shows multi-tool confluence.
• Entry: Prefer a buy-on-dip into 0.214–0.215 where hourly MA support and prior demand sit. If no dip, a momentum add-on above 0.2186 is acceptable but offers a slightly inferior R/R.
• Profit-taking: First scale near 0.224 (R1), main target ~0.228–0.229 (23.6% Fib/overhead supply). This harvests the bulk of the predictable relief leg.
• Risk control (not part of requested outputs, but essential): Stop below 0.2094 (recent swing), or tighter below 0.213 depending on position sizing. Risk ~0.007–0.008 for ~0.011–0.013 reward → R/R ≈ 1.4–1.7.

Conclusion

• Within a larger downtrend, the odds favor a 24h continuation of the relief rally into 0.224–0.229, with 0.229–0.230 likely capping the move. The optimal plan is a tactical long on a pullback with a take-profit set just in front of the 23.6% Fib/supply wall.