Fade The Nutty Bounce: Short PNUT Into 0.218–0.221 Resistance

Context and regime

• Instrument: Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), quote: $0.21341 at 2025-08-30 21:00 UTC
• Timeframes reviewed: Daily since 2025-06-02 and intraday (hourly) for the last 24 hours
• Regime synopsis: Primary downtrend from late July highs (~0.338 on 2025-07-20) to late August lows (~0.202 on 2025-08-25). Recent bounce attempts have been shallow and sold. Current price sits below key moving averages and below a heavy supply band, indicating rallies are opportunities to sell into strength rather than chase higher.

Price structure and key levels

• Swing high to low: 0.3378 (2025-07-20) → 0.2024 (2025-08-25)
• Daily supports: 0.2130–0.2140 (micro pivot), 0.2108 (2025-08-27 close), 0.2085 (2025-08-19 close), 0.2063 (today’s intraday low), 0.2024 (major swing low), 0.1984 (Aug 25 intraday)
• Daily resistances: 0.2147–0.2166 (intraday band), 0.2175, 0.2208 (R1 pivot from 8/29), 0.2228 (8/28 close), 0.229–0.231 (supply), 0.235–0.2366, 0.2404
• Micro (last 24h): Range compressing 0.206–0.2175; higher intraday low (0.2129 vs 0.2072) suggests a short-term bounce toward 0.216–0.219 is plausible before sellers reassert.

Moving averages and trend metrics

• 20-day SMA (approx): ~0.2254 (computed from last 20 closes). Price at 0.213 is below the 20-SMA → short-term bearish/mean-reverting lower.
• 50-day SMA (approx): mid-0.26s given June–July prints; price far below → intermediate downtrend intact.
• EMA slope: EMAs rolling down; any bounce into 0.218–0.223 likely encounters dynamic resistance.
• ADX (qualitative): Low-to-moderate trend strength (approx low-20s). Bear trend present, not exhausted.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx calc): ~44.1. Sub-50, rising slightly from oversold → momentum weak, bear-biased but with room for a small relief bounce.
• Stochastic (14,3) daily: Using 14D high 0.2439 and low 0.2024, %K ~27%. Rising from lower bound, but below 50 → bounce potential limited.
• MACD daily (qualitative): Below zero and likely below signal; histogram flattening after the 0.202→0.236 rebound, consistent with a weak countertrend rally fading.

Volatility and bands

• ATR(14) daily (approx): ~0.015. Expect typical 24h range roughly 0.012–0.018.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2) daily: Mid ~0.225; current price below mid; lower band likely low-0.20s. Price hugging lower half of the bands → downtrend phase with occasional mean reversion to mid-band (~0.225) that has been failing.

Ichimoku and trend tools

• Ichimoku (qualitative): Price below cloud; future cloud likely bearish; Tenkan < Kijun with baseline near ~0.225. Any rallies toward 0.225–0.229 are into the cloud underside/supply → resistance zone.
• Supertrend/Parabolic SAR (qual): Bearish; SAR likely above price, reinforcing sell-rallies posture.

Volume, flow, and market profile

• Volume pattern: Down days (e.g., 8/25) show heavier activity; up days lighter → distribution. OBV would be sloping down.
• Volume profile/HVN-LVN: HVN around 0.222–0.229 (repeated closes/trades); LVN near 0.214–0.216. Expect rejections near 0.22+ and quick traversals through 0.214–0.216.
• Intraday VWAP (today): Centered ~0.214. Price oscillating around/below VWAP → mild intraday mean reversion, but no strong accumulation signal.

Fibonacci context (Jul 20 high → Aug 25 low)

• 23.6%: ~0.2343 (capped 8/22–8/23 around 0.235–0.238)
• 38.2%: ~0.2541; 50%: ~0.2701
• Rejection at 23.6% indicates weak bounce quality; lower highs persist.

Pivots and confluence

• 8/29 pivots (H=0.2232, L=0.2019, C=0.2089):
  • P = 0.2113; R1 = 0.2208; S1 = 0.1995; R2 = 0.2326
  • Current 0.2134 is just above P. The most natural magnet above is R1 0.2208, which aligns with supply from 0.220–0.223. That’s a preferred sell zone.

Pattern read

• Structure since late July: Descending channel with a recent bear-flag-type consolidation (0.208–0.236) after the sharp Aug 25 drop. The flag has not broken up; instead, lower highs reinforce continuation risk.
• Candlesticks: Intraday small-bodied candles and upper wicks into 0.216–0.217 indicate supply stepping in on minor pops.

Stat/quant accents

• Mean-reversion Z-score vs 20D MA: Price ~0.012 below 20D MA with estimated daily stdev ~0.016 → z ≈ -0.75. Some reversion potential, but not strong; bear rallies likely fade beneath the mid-band.
• AR(1) flavor: Recent returns display negative serial correlation; after minor green prints, next session often retraces.
• Hurst (qualitative): Sub-0.5 behavior (anti-persistent) consistent with fade-the-bounce in a downtrend.

Intraday (last 24h) microstructure

• Sequence: Low 0.2072 → push to 0.2166 → pullback to 0.2129–0.214. Higher low forms, suggesting a test of 0.216–0.218 likely before larger direction. Liquidity is thin (weekend), so wicks are likely.

Next 24 hours – path and probabilities

• Base case (55%): Relief pop toward 0.216–0.219 (ideally tagging pivot R1 0.2208 or front-running at ~0.218–0.219), sellers re-enter, push back toward 0.208–0.210. End-of-window near 0.209–0.211.
• Bull case (25%): Sustained bid clears 0.221–0.223, quick squeeze to 0.224–0.227; extended bull cap near 0.229–0.231. Odds capped by macro downtrend and overhead supply.
• Bear case (20%): Early failure at ~0.215; break 0.210; probe 0.206–0.204. Tail risk retest of 0.202 if liquidity thins.

Trade thesis: Sell strength into 0.218–0.221

• Rationale confluence:
  • Price below 20/50 SMA, bearish regime.
  • 20D RSI ~44 and MACD<0 suggest rallies lack follow-through.
  • Pivot confluence: R1 at 0.2208 aligns with known supply 0.220–0.223.
  • Volume profile: HVN at 0.222–0.229; likely rejection zone.
  • Intraday structure favors a pop toward resistance before reversal.

Execution plan

• Entry (limit short): 0.2185 (fade the bounce ahead of R1 0.2208 and under intraday resistance 0.2175–0.219)
• Take profit (TP): 0.2068 (above 0.2063 intraday low; captures ~0.0117 move)
• Suggested stop (for risk planning; not part of order fields): 0.2240 (above 0.223–0.2235 supply and R1 overshoot)
• Risk/Reward: Risk ~0.0055 vs Reward ~0.0117 → R:R ~2.1:1
• Position sizing: Calibrate size so a stop at 0.2240 risks ≤1% of capital.

Invalidation and alternatives

• Invalidation: Strong acceptance above 0.223–0.224 with rising volume flips near-term bias to neutral; above 0.229–0.231 opens 0.235–0.236. Stand aside or reassess if breakout holds.
• Alternative entry: If no bounce, momentum short on breakdown <0.2120 targeting 0.206–0.208; however, preferred is to sell a pop for better R:R.

Risk notes

• Weekend liquidity increases wick/stop-run risk; use limit orders and avoid chasing.
• Be mindful of sudden news-driven volatility in micro-caps; consider partial scaling at 0.210–0.209 and trail remainder toward 0.206–0.205.

Bottom line

• The primary trend remains down. Indicators and structure favor fading a modest bounce into well-defined resistance. Expect a 24h range centered ~0.212 with upper spikes toward 0.218–0.221 likely to be sold, and lower probes toward 0.206–0.209 likely before the next decision point.