PNUT cracks the 0.20 dam: Setting up a throwback short into 0.199–0.201 for a run at 0.186

Comprehensive multi-timeframe technical analysis for PNUT (Peanut the Squirrel)

1. Market regime and structure

• Higher timeframe (daily) trend: Bearish. Since late July’s peak (~0.3378 on 2025-07-20/22), price has made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. August produced repeated failures near 0.236–0.24 and again 0.222–0.23, then rolled over to the 0.20 handle.
• Key breakdown today: The 0.200–0.202 shelf (psychological round number + prior micro-support) has been decisively broken on a volume spike around 20:00 UTC (hourly print down to ~0.1932). This converts 0.200–0.202 into immediate resistance.
• Structure: A descending structure throughout August morphed into a descending triangle with a flat-ish support zone ~0.208–0.21 first, then a secondary ledge ~0.200. Today’s breakdown confirms continuation.

2. Price action, levels, and liquidity

• Support and resistance (from recent pivots and June–August price history): • Immediate resistance: 0.199–0.202 (broken support; likely “throwback” zone). Above that: 0.206–0.208 (hourly 200EMA cluster), then 0.213–0.214, 0.222–0.223, and 0.235–0.236. • Immediate supports: 0.195–0.196 (near classic S3 pivot from prior day; currently being tested), then 0.190, and a more structural support near 0.186–0.188. A deeper support sits around 0.183 (June 22 swing low area).
• Liquidity map: The break under 0.200 likely triggered stop-loss liquidity and opened a thin pocket down to the mid-0.19s. After such a sweep, markets often “throw back” to retest the breakdown zone (0.199–0.201) before continuation.

3. Volume and volatility

• Volume: Intraday volume surged on the breakdown hour (~20:00 UTC), confirming participation behind the move. Recent daily volumes in late August have clustered but not capitulated; today’s spike looks like a trend-confirming expansion, not exhaustion.
• Volatility: Daily ATR(14) estimate ~0.016–0.019. With price now below the 0.20 handle, an ATR-sized follow-through into 0.186–0.190 within 24h is feasible, particularly if a throwback fails.

4. Indicator matrix (daily unless noted)

• Moving averages (daily): • 20D SMA ≈ 0.221 (rough calc from last 20 closes) – price well below → bearish. • 50D SMA/EMA estimated ~0.25–0.26 – far above → larger-trend bearish. • Alignment: Short-term MA below medium-term → bearish continuation bias.
• RSI(14) daily: Roughly low-40s pre-break; today’s drop pushes it further down, but not yet “classic oversold.” No clear bullish divergence vs. mid/late August lows; momentum remains to the downside.
• Stochastics (daily): Likely sub-20 and curling down → momentum still bearish.
• MACD (daily): Negative and below signal with widening histogram after today’s break → bearish momentum re-acceleration.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid-band ~0.221; lower band estimated ~0.187–0.189. Price is pressing/near the lower band; often invites a reflexive bounce, but trend-following breaks can ride the band lower. Risk of a short-term mean-reversion pop into 0.199–0.202 before continuation.
• ADX/DMI (daily): Trend strength elevated (est. ADX mid-20s to high-20s) with -DI > +DI → supports continuation.
• Ichimoku (daily): Price below cloud; Tenkan and Kijun pointing down; lagging span below price → bearish across components.
• VWAP (intraday): Price trading under session VWAP post-break; bounces into VWAP/0.200 area likely face supply.
• Hourly EMAs: 20/50/200EMAs rolling over and stacked bearishly; post-break price sits below all three, adding confluence to a short on a retest.

5. Pattern and measured-move context

• Descending triangle/ledges: The August pattern carved a series of compression floors, with today’s decisive break of the 0.20 floor. This often resolves with a measured move roughly equal to the height of the last mini-range (~0.010–0.012), projecting into ~0.188–0.190 initially.
• Fibonacci (near-term swing): Using Aug 28 high (~0.22278) to Aug 31 low (~0.20741), the 1.272 extension sits near ~0.1879 and the 1.618 around ~0.1826. Current price (~0.194) lies between these, favoring continuation towards ~0.188 unless reclaimed levels invalidate.
• Classic pivots (derived from 2025-08-31): Pivot P ≈ 0.2104; S1 ≈ 0.2043; S2 ≈ 0.2012; S3 ≈ 0.1951. Price has reached the vicinity of S3, which often elicits a reaction bounce back to S2 (~0.201)—an ideal short “throwback” setup.

6. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (≈60%): Throwback to 0.199–0.201 fails (sellers defend prior support), leading to a rollover into 0.188–0.190. This satisfies the measured-move/Fib extension and aligns with ATR. Structure remains bearish into tomorrow unless price closes back above ~0.202 on the hourly.
• Bear trend continuation without retest (≈20%): Price grinds down from current ~0.194 to ~0.188–0.186 directly, forms a bear flag below 0.196, then extends lower into 0.183 on stop sweeps.
• Bullish reclaim/squeeze (≈20%): A stronger-than-expected rebound reclaims 0.202 on an hourly close, forcing a squeeze to 0.206–0.208 and possibly 0.213. This would weaken the immediate short thesis and suggest a deeper mean-reversion, albeit within a broader downtrend unless 0.222–0.236 is reclaimed later.

7. Trade plan and risk management (short-biased)

• Rationale to short: Trend alignment (daily and hourly), fresh breakdown of a key round-number support on volume, momentum indicators negative, and multiple confluences point to a retest-and-fail setup near 0.200.
• Optimal entry (sell/short): 0.1998 (within the 0.199–0.201 throwback zone and near S2 pivot ≈0.2012). This aims to sell into supply rather than chase the lows.
• Take-profit target: 0.1865 (near 1.272–1.414 extension window and just above the 0.183 structural daily support, capturing the typical post-break measured move while front-running deeper bids).
• Suggested stop (for planning; not part of order output fields): 0.2062 (above 0.206 supply band and hourly 200EMA cluster). Risk ≈ 0.0064 vs. reward ≈ 0.0133 → R:R ≈ 2.1:1.
• Invalidation: Hourly close back above 0.202 weakens the short edge; above ~0.206–0.208 invalidates near-term bear control and suggests a squeeze toward 0.213.

8. Timing

• Expect the retest attempt in the next few hours as liquidity providers mean-revert toward VWAP/pivots. If not filled, momentum continuation to 0.188–0.186 can occur during thinner Asia hours; avoid chasing entries at the lows—better to wait for the throwback.

9. Bottom line

• The break of 0.200—with volume, trend alignment, and momentum confirmation—favors shorting a retest into 0.199–0.201 and targeting 0.186–0.187 within the next 24 hours. Only a firm reclaim above ~0.202–0.206 would negate this setup and shift bias to a short-term bounce toward 0.213.