Peanut’s Countertrend Pop: Tactical Long Aiming for the 0.22 Mean-Reversion Zone

Market snapshot (as of 2025-09-02 21:00 UTC)

• Symbol: PNUT (Peanut the Squirrel)
• Currency: $
• Current price: 0.20687842
• Context: After a multi-week decline from the July peak (~0.338), PNUT printed a new local daily close low on Sep-01 (0.1934), then staged an intraday recovery on Sep-02 back above 0.206, reversing most of yesterday’s selloff.

1. Price action and structure (multi-timeframe)

• Daily trend: Lower highs and lower lows since late July; the primary trend remains bearish. However, price just bounced from the 0.188–0.194 support pocket (hourly lows around 0.1888, daily close 0.1934 on Sep-01), suggesting a near-term relief rally.
• Intraday (hourly) structure on Sep-02: A rounded intraday bottom formed between 12:00–14:00 with a sequence of higher lows from ~0.195 up to 0.2065–0.2069 into the close of the latest hour. Price is now above intraday VWAP, indicating buyers have the tape.
• Key supports (visible on recent daily/hourly): 0.193–0.194 (Sep-01 close), 0.189 (hourly pivot low on Sep-01), 0.183–0.185 (Jun-22 swing low).
• Key resistances above: 0.208–0.209 (R1/pivot + 38.2% Fib), 0.213–0.215 (recent closes + 50% Fib), 0.220–0.221 (61.8% Fib + 20D SMA), 0.2227 (R2), 0.229–0.231 (dense supply zone), 0.236–0.237 (Aug-22/23 highs).

2. Moving averages (trend and mean reversion)

• 20-day SMA (approx): Using the last 20 daily closes (Aug-13 to Sep-01), sum ≈ 4.415834 → SMA20 ≈ 0.2208. Current price (0.2069) is below the 20D SMA, creating a mean-reversion magnet up toward ~0.221 if the bounce persists.
• 50-day SMA (approx trend gauge): Given July’s 0.28–0.33 regime and August’s 0.20–0.26, the SMA50 is likely in the 0.255–0.265 zone. Price is decisively below, confirming the broader downtrend.
• 200-day SMA: Not computable from the provided window; trend context from price action suffices (bearish higher timeframe). Interpretation: Short-term mean reversion upside room to SMA20 (~0.221) within an overall bearish higher-timeframe regime.

3. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (est.): After the late-August slide and Sep-01 low, RSI likely recovered from the mid-30s to the low-40s; still below 50 but curling up → early-stage momentum repair consistent with a bounce.
• RSI(14) hourly: Likely mid-50s to low-60s after today’s climb, signaling intraday bullish momentum without being overbought.
• MACD (12,26,9) daily (qualitative): MACD line remains below zero but histogram is likely contracting (less negative) as price rebounds. A bullish momentum inflection is forming, but no confirmed MACD-above-zero shift yet.
• Stochastics (daily, qualitative): Coming up from oversold toward mid-range; supports the bounce case into nearby resistances. Interpretation: Momentum is turning up on lower timeframes, with daily still subdued but improving—classic conditions for a 1–2 day mean-reversion push.

4. Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily (est.): ~0.017–0.019 given recent daily ranges. Expected one-day move from 0.2069: roughly 0.188–0.225. This brackets key support at ~0.189 and resistance near 0.222–0.223.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Middle band ≈ 0.2208. With recent downside volatility, the lower band is estimated near ~0.186–0.190. Current price is between the lower band and the mid-band; typical mean-reversion path targets the mid-band around 0.221. Interpretation: Room for a 24h drift toward 0.214–0.221 without breaching typical volatility envelopes.

5. Volume, VWAP, and accumulation/distribution

• Daily volume: Sep-02 intraday volume is robust (≈89M) versus the prior few sessions, aligning with a reversal day dynamic (buyers active near support).
• Intraday VWAP (Sep-02): Price action clustered ~0.200–0.203 for much of the session, then pushed to ~0.2065–0.207 late. Current price > VWAP implies buyers are willing to pay up.
• OBV/A/D (qualitative): After several distribution days into Sep-01, today’s strong up-volume likely inflects OBV upward, indicative of accumulation off the lows. Interpretation: Volume behavior supports a short-term long bias into nearby resistance levels.

6. Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price below the cloud; Kijun/Tenkan likely below the cloud as well. The system remains bearish in the higher timeframe, but Tenkan may be flattening; a reversion toward Kijun/20D SMA zone (~0.220–0.223) is plausible.
• Hourly: Price above Tenkan and Kijun; cloud turning thin/green ahead—bullish intraday posture while above ~0.201–0.203. Interpretation: Bearish higher timeframe; bullish intraday with room into 0.220–0.223 before cloud/SMA friction.

7. Fibonacci retracements (swing Aug-22 high to Sep-01 low)

• Range: High 0.236609 → Low 0.193384 → Range = 0.043225
• 38.2%: 0.193384 + 0.382×0.043225 ≈ 0.2099
• 50.0%: 0.193384 + 0.500×0.043225 ≈ 0.2150
• 61.8%: 0.193384 + 0.618×0.043225 ≈ 0.2201 Interpretation: Clean confluence with pivot levels and the 20D SMA: resistance steps at ~0.2099, 0.2150, 0.2201.

8. Pivot points (from Sep-01 O/H/L/C: 0.2074/0.2128/0.1883/0.1934)

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ (0.212832+0.188301+0.193384)/3 ≈ 0.19817
• R1 ≈ 2P − L ≈ 0.20804
• R2 ≈ P + (H − L) ≈ 0.22270
• R3 ≈ H + 2(P − L) ≈ 0.23257
• S1 ≈ 2P − H ≈ 0.18351 Interpretation: Price currently sits just under R1 (0.208). Close above R1 opens a path toward P→R2 laddering, with R2 (0.2227) aligning with SMA/61.8% band resistance.

9. Candlestick analysis

• Sep-01: Long lower tail day with close near 0.193—potential downside exhaustion.
• Sep-02 (developing): Strong green day retracing a large chunk of Sep-01’s body. If it closes above ~0.203–0.205, it resembles a Piercing Line-type recovery vs. the prior candle; a close above 0.209 would strengthen the signal. Interpretation: Bullish daily reversal attempt from support with confirmation level near 0.209–0.210.

10. Channel/market-structure mapping

• Since late July, price has been traveling in a descending channel. Today’s bounce is an attempt to re-test the midline/upper half of that channel on intraday timeframes.
• A rejection is probable at first touch zones 0.209–0.215; breakout requires volume follow-through.

11. Wyckoff/Elliott flavor (qualitative)

• Wyckoff: Potential automatic rally (AR) after a selling climax-like move into Sep-01, entering a short-term accumulation range 0.199–0.215. The next 24h likely explores the upper half of this range.
• Elliott: The leg from ~0.236 in late Aug to 0.193 may complete a 5th-of-C down; the current bounce would be an A of a corrective (A–B–C) toward ~0.215–0.221.

12. ADX/DI (trend strength, qualitative)

• Daily ADX likely ~18–22: trend weakening after the recent sell leg; room for a counter-trend bounce before trend resumes or transitions to range.

13. Confluence summary

• Bullish intraday cues: price > VWAP; higher lows on hourly; increasing volume; RSI hourly >50; MACD hourly positive; Ichimoku hourly supportive.
• Overhead resistance confluence: 0.2099 (38.2% Fib & just above R1 0.2080), 0.2150 (50% Fib), 0.220–0.221 (61.8% + SMA20), 0.2227 (R2).
• Higher timeframe trend still down: therefore, favor quick, tactical long targeting the mean with tight risk.

14. 24-hour forecast (probabilistic view)

• Base case (60%): Drift-up/mean-reversion toward 0.214–0.220, with intraday pullbacks to 0.202–0.204 likely bought. Expect consolidation or rejection in the 0.215–0.221 band.
• Bull case (20%): Strong momentum clears 0.220–0.221; extension test of 0.2227–0.225 where sellers likely reappear.
• Bear case (20%): Failure at 0.208–0.210, fade back below 0.202; re-test of 0.198 then 0.193–0.194. Only a decisive break <0.189 reopens 0.185–0.183.
• Expected daily range (ATR-guided): ~0.198–0.222 with tails possibly 0.195–0.225.

15. Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip for a mean-reversion pop, within an overall bearish higher timeframe—treat as a short-term tactical long.
• Optimal entry (limit): 0.2045–0.2050 zone (around intraday support/VWAP retest). Given current price 0.2069, a small patience pullback improves R:R.
• Primary target (TP): 0.2198 (front-run SMA20/61.8% Fib and below R2 0.2227).
• Suggested protective stop (not required in output but integral to plan): 0.1986 (below pivot P 0.1982 and session structure), or more conservative 0.1968 (below afternoon lows), depending on risk tolerance.
• Risk/Reward (approx): Entry 0.2046 → TP 0.2198 = +0.0152 (+7.4%); Stop 0.1986 = −0.0060 (−2.9%); R:R ≈ 2.5:1.
• Contingency: If no pullback fills 0.2045, an alternative breakout add-on can be considered above 0.2099 with a tighter stop, but that’s beyond the single-price output requirement.

Decision rationale

• Multiple tools (Fibs, pivots, VWAP, Bollinger midline, SMA20, hourly momentum) converge on a near-term push toward 0.214–0.221 while the broader trend remains down. This favors a fast, tactical long targeting the mean.
• We are not calling a trend reversal; we’re exploiting a high-probability, short-duration mean reversion into layered resistance. Respect stops if 0.202 fails and 0.198–0.199 gives way.

Prediction for next 24 hours

• Likely path: 0.203–0.205 pullback → attempt through 0.208–0.210 → test 0.214–0.220. Highest resistance response expected near 0.219–0.221.
• Expected high/low: 0.214–0.222 high vs. 0.199–0.203 low; tail risks to 0.196 (down) or 0.225 (up) under momentum spikes.

Bottom line

• Tactical Buy favored with a pullback entry, targeting the 0.219–0.221 mean-reversion zone within 24 hours. Manage risk tightly due to the dominant higher-timeframe downtrend.