PNUT poised for a 38.2% Fib rebound: buying the 0.235 confluence for a push toward 0.249

Overview and setup

• Instrument: PNUT (Peanut the Squirrel)
• Quote currency: $
• Current price (last print): 0.23655787
• Lookback: Daily OHLCV (Jun 18 → Sep 15) and recent intraday (hourly for Sep 14–15)
• Objective: Predict next 24 hours and construct a tactical trade plan

1. Market structure and trend context (top–down)

• Higher timeframe swing map (daily):
  • Major downswing into Sep 1 low at 0.1934, then impulsive advance into Sep 13 high at 0.2626 (+35.8%). The last two sessions pulled back to 0.2491 (Sep 14 close) and 0.2366 (current), i.e., a sharp but proportional correction of the recent impulse.
  • Structure: Sequence of higher lows since Sep 1 (0.193 → 0.2067 → 0.2103 → 0.2133/0.2161 → 0.2320 → 0.2366) remains intact assuming 0.2309 intraday low (Sep 15 16:00) holds. We are correcting within an uptrend rather than reversing it.
• Intraday (hourly):
  • Sell wave from ~0.253–0.254 in the early session to 0.2309 by 16:00, then stabilization back to ~0.236–0.2365 into the last hour.
  • Price carved a falling channel during the day and is attempting to base near a prior daily resistance-turned-support band (0.234–0.236).

2. Key levels (confluence across methods)

• Horizontal S/R from recent daily swings:
  • Support S1: 0.235–0.236 (prior resistance from Sep 8–11, now being retested)
  • Support S2: 0.231 (intraday low 0.2309; around 50% retrace cluster, see Fib below)
  • Support S3: 0.228 (daily congestion and 50% retrace of Sep 1 → Sep 13 swing)
  • Deeper support S4: 0.222–0.223 (20D SMA neighborhood and Aug congestion)
  • Resistance R1: 0.242–0.244 (intraday breakdown area, prior mid-day shelf)
  • Resistance R2: 0.249–0.251 (daily pivot band and prior support turned resistance)
  • Resistance R3: 0.257–0.259 (upper Bollinger/pivot R1 vicinity)
  • Resistance R4: 0.2625–0.263 (recent swing high)
• Classical pivots (derived off Sep 14 H/L/C ≈ 0.2657/0.2461/0.2491):
  • P ≈ 0.2537; S1 ≈ 0.2416; S2 ≈ 0.2340; S3 ≈ 0.2219; R1 ≈ 0.2612
  • Current price is hovering just above S2 (0.2340), a frequent intraday inflection zone.
• Fibonacci retracement (swing Sep 1 low 0.1934 → Sep 13 high 0.2626):
  • 38.2%: ~0.2362 (price is essentially at this level)
  • 50.0%: ~0.2280 (aligns with a visible HL cluster)
  • 61.8%: ~0.2195 (deeper support that coincides with late Aug consolidation)
  • Price finding traction precisely at the 38.2% level favors continuation of the prior uptrend.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA ≈ 0.2228 (computed from the last 20 daily closes). Price at 0.2366 trades above the 20D SMA → bullish short-term bias.
• 50-day SMA (est.): likely near 0.245–0.250 given July’s higher prints and August softness. Price is modestly below that zone, consistent with: short-term uptrend resuming within a still-recovering medium-term trend. A reclaim of 0.242–0.251 would realign the medium-term trend positively.
• Short-term EMAs (intraday): price is below the intraday VWAP/EMAs from today’s open (bearish intraday), but flattening into the close as selling pressure abates.

4. Momentum and oscillator read

• Daily RSI(14): qualitatively in the 50–60 range after the run-up and 2-day pullback; not overbought, not oversold; room to rise.
• Hourly RSI: printed sub-35 during the morning selloff and later lows, then formed a higher RSI low while price made a marginal lower low (0.23597 → 0.23087). That is a bullish momentum divergence on the intraday frame.
• MACD (daily): histogram likely still positive but contracting; signal lines above zero after the rally. On the hourly, histogram shows waning bearish momentum into the European/US sessions, consistent with divergence and basing.

5. Volatility and bands

• Bollinger Bands (20D, est. stdev ~0.018):
  • Middle band ≈ 0.2228; Upper ≈ 0.259; Lower ≈ 0.186
  • Price just rolled off the upper band (Sep 12–13) and mean-reverted toward the mid-to-upper band. Now it sits between mid and upper, favoring a stabilizing-to-bounce scenario rather than immediate breakdown.
• ATR (daily, visual approximation): ~0.013–0.020. A ±0.012–0.015 daily move is common, framing a plausible 24h range of 0.225–0.249 around the current level.
• Keltner Channels: today’s close is near the lower Keltner on intraday frames, which typically invites mean reversion to the mid-channel (≈0.242).

6. Volume, flow, and positioning

• Daily volume expanded into the Sep 12–13 push and tapered on the pullback — a healthy correction profile (rallies on higher volume, dips on lighter volume).
• Intraday today: heaviest selling volumes printed around 07:00–09:00 and eased afterward; later hours show absorption near 0.234–0.236.
• OBV (qualitative): trend turned up with the rally; recent pullback didn’t undercut prior OBV pivot lows, implying no distribution break.
• VWAPs: Price trades below today’s session VWAP (sellers in control intraday), but anchored VWAP off the Sep 1 low likely still below spot given the magnitude of the run; that medium-term anchor supports the idea of dip-buying interest.

7. Pattern diagnostics

• Pullback-to-support: The market is testing a classic resistance-turned-support zone (0.234–0.236) and the 38.2% Fib.
• Falling intraday channel: A break above 0.242 would confirm a micro trend change and open the path to 0.249–0.251.
• Potential wave structure: The Sep 1 → Sep 13 move reads as an impulsive leg; this two-day pullback into 38.2% resembles a wave-4 style correction within a larger advance, favoring another attempt upward (wave-5) toward 0.257–0.263.
• Candles: Intraday printed long lower wicks near 16:00 and stabilization thereafter — early signs of demand stepping in.

8. Ichimoku lens (daily, qualitative)

• Price > Kijun (26) estimate (~0.222), but likely < Tenkan (9) estimate (~0.242). This is a textbook pullback within a positive regime: price often mean-reverts to Tenkan if Kijun holds. Cloud ahead likely flipped bullish post-rally. Chikou should be above recent prices, supporting trend continuation.

9. Quant-style checklist

• Trend vs. mean reversion alignment: Uptrend on daily; intraday oversold with bullish divergence → probability skew favors bounce over continuation of selling.
• Location: 38.2% Fib + pivot S2 + prior resistance-turned-support. Multi-factor confluence is strong at 0.234–0.236.
• Risk asymmetry: Defined invalidation below 0.228 (50% Fib and structural shelf) allows reasonable risk for a retest of 0.249–0.251 first, potentially 0.257–0.259 next.

10. Next 24 hours: scenario planning

• Base case (60–65%): Hold 0.234–0.236, grind higher through 0.242–0.244, test 0.248–0.249 into the next session. Consolidation likely 0.236–0.245 first, then extension if volume returns.
• Bear case (35–40%): One more liquidity sweep to 0.231–0.233 (50% Fib nearly 0.228), then bounce. Sustained acceptance below 0.228 would risk a deeper slide toward 0.223.
• Stretch bull case (20–25% conditional on strong breadth/volume): Clean reclaim of 0.249–0.251 opens 0.257–0.259 and perhaps a probe of 0.262–0.263.

11. Trade construction and execution notes

• Thesis: Buy the dip at confluence support, aiming for mean reversion to the breakdown shelf and first resistance band in the next 24 hours.
• Entry tactics:
  • Preferred: Buy limit around 0.2358 to lean on the 38.2% Fib and micro shelf, accepting a small chance of missing if price runs immediately.
  • Alternative: If price lifts through 0.242 with momentum, consider a breakout add-on toward 0.248–0.251; however, the core plan focuses on the dip entry.
• Targeting:
  • First target: 0.2488 (just ahead of 0.249–0.251 resistance to improve fill probability).
  • Extension (not required for this plan): 0.257–0.259 if momentum/volume expands.
• Invalidation (risk guide, not an order in this output): A daily close below 0.228 or sustained intraday acceptance below 0.228 would negate the setup and imply a 0.222 retest.
• Indicative R:R (for context): Entry 0.2358, TP 0.2488 (+0.0130). Hypothetical stop 0.2280 (−0.0078) → ~1.7:1, acceptable for a 24h tactical swing.

Bottom line

• Multiple, independent tools (Fib 38.2%, pivot S2, prior R→S, hourly bullish divergence, price > 20D SMA, Ichimoku Kijun hold) align to suggest a bounce is more likely than a breakdown over the next 24 hours. The optimal play is to Buy on a minor dip toward 0.235–0.236 with a target near 0.249.