PNUT poised to crack resistance: 38.2% pullback bounce sets up a run toward 0.254 within 24 hours

Instrument: Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) Timestamp reference: 2025-09-16 20:56 UTC Current price: 0.24436 Time horizons assessed: Daily and Hourly (last ~24 hours)

1. Market structure and trend (multi-timeframe)

• Daily structure (since early Aug): Clear bullish reversal from the Sep 1 swing low (0.1883) with higher highs and higher lows into the Sep 12-13 swing zone (highs 0.2667 and 0.2809). Recent pullback from 0.2626 (Sep 13 close) to 0.2399 (Sep 15 close) looks corrective within an uptrend.
• Last 4 daily closes: 0.2626 → 0.2491 → 0.2399 → 0.2444. That is a two-day pullback followed by a stabilization/rebound day.
• Hourly (last 24h): Constructive grind higher from ~0.236–0.238 base, printing higher lows and reclaiming 0.24–0.245. Resistance supply appeared near 0.246–0.248; price is holding above the intraday pivot.

2. Key levels (confluence mapping)

• Fibonacci retracements (swing low 0.1883 on Sep 1 to swing high 0.2667 on Sep 12; range 0.07836): • 23.6%: 0.2482 • 38.2%: 0.2367 • 50%: 0.2275 • 61.8%: 0.2182 Price bounced intraday from just above 38.2% (0.2367) and is sandwiched between 38.2% (support) and 23.6% (resistance). That is classic bullish pullback behavior inside an uptrend.
• Classic pivots (derived from today’s H/L/C ≈ 0.2461 / 0.2340 / 0.2444): • Pivot P ≈ 0.2415 • R1 ≈ 0.2490 (near Fib 23.6% 0.2482) • R2 ≈ 0.2536 • S1 ≈ 0.2369 (near Fib 38.2% 0.2367) • S2 ≈ 0.2294 These form a tight, credible intraday map with strong confluences at 0.2368–0.237 and 0.248–0.249.
• Camarilla (approx): H3 ≈ 0.2477, H4 ≈ 0.2510, L3 ≈ 0.2411, L4 ≈ 0.2377. Reclaiming and holding above L3/P (~0.241–0.242) is constructive; pushing through H3/H4 transitions the tape into trend day behavior toward 0.253–0.255.
• Prior supply/demand: • Resistance cluster: 0.246–0.249 (intraday highs), then 0.253–0.256 (R2, upper Keltner/BB), and 0.262–0.266 (upper BB and prior swing supply). • Support cluster: 0.241–0.242 (Pivot/L3/VWAP zone), 0.2365–0.237 (Fib 38.2%/S1), 0.232, 0.227–0.228 (50% Fib), then 0.222–0.225.

3. Moving averages and trend filters

• 20-day SMA (approx) ≈ 0.2246. Price is above the 20SMA, confirming short-term uptrend.
• 50-day SMA (approx) ≈ 0.248–0.252 (given late-July strength and August softness). Price is just below/near this band, implying medium-term neutrality yet improving momentum. A sustained recapture of 0.249–0.252 would flip the medium-term bias firmly bullish.
• EMA bias (qualitative): Momentum EMAs (12/26) likely remain positively sloped after the early-September rally; histogram likely compressed by the past three sessions’ pullback but still above zero.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) daily (approx) ≈ 65–66. This is bullish momentum without being overbought. A healthy pullback kept RSI elevated, consistent with trend continuation potential.
• Stochastic (qualitative): Mid-to-upper range, curling up from a dip—consistent with a bounce from support and potential re-test of resistance.
• MACD: Above the zero line with a contracting histogram post 9/12–9/13 surge; recent curl suggests momentum re-acceleration on a push through 0.248–0.249.

5. Volatility and envelopes

• ATR(14) daily (approx) ≈ 0.019–0.022. Expect a 24h realized range roughly 0.236–0.256 if the upside scenario materializes.
• Bollinger Bands (20,2): Mid ≈ 0.2246; estimated upper ≈ 0.262; lower ≈ 0.187. %B is elevated (~0.75), consistent with an uptrend after a pullback, with room toward the upper band (0.253–0.262 corridor is realistic within a strong day, though the very top likely requires more time/volume).
• Keltner Channels (EMA20 ± 1.5 ATR): Mid ≈ 0.2246; upper ≈ 0.253–0.254; lower ≈ 0.196. Today’s upside objective lines up with the upper Keltner ~0.253–0.254.

6. Ichimoku Cloud (daily, approximated)

• Tenkan-sen (9-period midpoint) ≈ 0.2480 (currently above price)—nearby dynamic resistance.
• Kijun-sen (26-period midpoint) ≈ 0.2346 (price above)—dynamic support.
• Cloud likely below price given recent rally; Chikou above price from 26 periods ago. Net: Bullish regime with a near-term dip below Tenkan; a close back above ~0.248 would signal trend resumption.

7. Volume and participation

• Volume peaked during the Sep 12–13 surge (152–187M) and tapered on the pullback. Today’s volume (~56M into 20:56 UTC) is moderate and rising into the NY afternoon hours. Pullbacks on lighter volume favor the bull case. No evidence of aggressive distribution at current levels.
• On-Balance Volume (qualitative): Uptrend since Sep 1; modest digestion over the last two sessions; holding above recent OBV supports—constructive for another leg higher if resistance breaks.

8. Candles and patterns

• Daily: The 9/14–9/15 sequence printed a fast pullback; 9/16 is an inside-to-up day reclaiming the daily pivot—often a launchpad toward R1/R2 when the broader trend is up. The pattern resembles a small bull flag/falling wedge resolving higher within the larger uptrend.
• Hourly: Ascending micro-structure with higher lows from 0.236 area, but repeated supply near 0.246–0.248 creates a near-term ascending triangle. A clean hour close above ~0.248–0.249 would likely trigger momentum toward 0.253–0.256.

9. Regression and mean-reversion lens

• Price is above the 20-day mean and trending. Mean-reversion pullbacks have been shallow (held 38.2% Fib). With ATR still healthy, the path of least resistance is a drift up toward upper Keltner/BB mid-upper zone unless a decisive failure occurs at 0.248–0.249.

10. Elliott wave (heuristic)

• Wave 1: 0.188 → 0.266
• Wave 2: Pullback into 0.239–0.244 zone (~38.2% region tested intraday)
• Potential Wave 3: A break back above 0.248–0.249 (Tenkan/23.6%/R1 cluster) sets sights on 0.253–0.257 next, with 0.262–0.266 on extension (likely beyond 24h unless momentum/volume spike).

11. VWAP and intraday positioning

• Intraday VWAP (approx) ~0.241–0.242; price is above VWAP. Maintaining above VWAP and P (~0.2415) supports a buy-the-dip approach into 0.241–0.242 with stops tucked below 0.237.

12. Risk management context (for completeness)

• Key invalidation: A daily/hourly close below 0.2367 (Fib 38.2% and S1) would weaken the bullish case and open 0.232 and 0.227. Given ATR, protective risk levels should respect noise (~0.004–0.006 below entry if using a dip entry).
• Reward focus: First objective ~0.253–0.254 (R2/upper Keltner), with stretch to 0.256 if momentum ignites.

13. 24-hour outlook and scenarios

• Base case (bullish continuation, ~60–65%): Hold above 0.241–0.242; break 0.248–0.249; tag 0.253–0.254 with intraday extensions toward 0.255–0.256. Expected 24h range: 0.237–0.255.
• Alternate (range/failed breakout, ~25–30%): Chop between 0.241 and 0.249; repeated failures under Tenkan/23.6% lead to retests of 0.237; still constructive unless 0.2367 breaks.
• Bear risk tail (~10%): Sharp rejection from 0.249 and loss of 0.2367 accelerates to 0.232–0.229 (S2 vicinity). Low probability given current structure but must be acknowledged.

14. Synthesis and conclusion

• Multiple tools agree: The uptrend remains intact above the 20SMA and Kijun; RSI is bullish, MACD constructive, and price just beneath Tenkan/23.6% + R1 cluster. Strong confluences define a clear trade plan: buy dips near pivot/VWAP or buy a breakout through 0.249, targeting the R2/upper Keltner zone near 0.253–0.254 within the next 24 hours.

Trade plan (tactical)

• Bias: Buy the dip.
• Optimal entry zone: 0.241–0.242 (Pivot/L3/VWAP confluence). If missed, secondary breakout entry on a clean hourly close above 0.249.
• Take-profit focus: 0.253–0.254 (pre-R2 to R2 cluster, upper Keltner). Stretch: 0.256 if momentum/volume expand.
• Invalidation for the dip entry (not requested but prudent): ~0.2364 (beneath S1/Fib 38.2%).

Bottom line: Favor a long into 0.241–0.242 with a 24h target near 0.254. Structural supports are well-defined; upside triggers are clear; risk-reward is attractive (~2.5:1 using a 0.2364 stop and a 0.254 target).