PNUT Squeeze: Ascending Triangle Poised to Pop Toward R1

Context and market structure

• Instrument: Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), quote currency: $, current price: 0.25716 (as of 2025-09-18 21:00 UTC).
• Timeframes provided: Daily OHLCV (since late June) and intraday hourly for the most recent sessions.
• Recent path: July uptrend to 0.31–0.33, followed by a corrective downtrend into late Aug (~0.20). Early Sept formed a base around 0.19–0.21, then a recovery leg to 0.28 (Sep 13 high), mild pullback, and since Sep 15–18 a constructive series of higher lows with tight consolidation 0.252–0.260.

Price action and structure

• Market structure (daily): After the Sep 1 low (0.193), price made a strong impulsive move to 0.281 on Sep 13. Pullback held a higher low at 0.2399 on Sep 15 and 0.2469 on Sep 16. Current action above 0.25 maintains a nascent uptrend (HLs). The immediate ceiling is 0.262–0.266.
• Market structure (hourly): Tight range, rising micro swing-lows: 0.2514 → 0.2520s → 0.255x, capping at 0.260–0.2603. This is an ascending triangle-type compression beneath a flat resistance shelf at ~0.260–0.262; typical resolution probability slightly favors upside.
• Candlestick behavior: Small-bodied hourly candles, overlapping ranges, long lower wicks near 0.252–0.254 show dip buying. No bearish engulfing on hourly in the last sessions; daily candles since Sep 16 are constructive (higher closes, controlled ranges).

Support and resistance map

• Immediate support: 0.255–0.256 (VWAP/pivot zone), 0.252 (hourly swing low), 0.2469 (Sep 16 low), 0.2399 (Sep 15 low), 0.234–0.235 (cluster).
• Immediate resistance: 0.260–0.262 (hourly lid), 0.2667 (Sep 12 high), 0.269–0.270 (upper volatility bands / measured move), 0.273–0.274 (extension), 0.281 (Sep 13 swing high).

Moving averages

• Daily 20-SMA ≈ 0.229 (est.). Price 0.257 is above the 20-SMA, indicating short-term bullish bias and a potential mean-reversion magnet now below price (support on dips).
• Daily 50-SMA ≈ 0.245–0.250 (est.). Price above the 50-SMA confirms improving intermediate trend.
• Hourly 20/50-EMA: Flat-to-slightly rising, with price oscillating just above both; this is classic pre-breakout alignment.

Momentum oscillators

• RSI (daily, 14): Estimated mid-50s to high-50s, neither overbought nor oversold, allowing room to push to resistance without momentum exhaustion.
• RSI (hourly): ~50–55, consistent with consolidation and latent upside pressure.
• Stochastic (daily): Mid-zone with a gentle up-cross from pullback—supports a continuation attempt toward resistance.
• MACD (daily): Histogram positive but shallow; signal line above zero after a recent bullish cross. Suggests uptrend is intact but awaiting a new impulse.
• MACD (hourly): Near zero-line, slightly curling up—often precedes expansion after a squeeze.

Volatility and ranges

• ATR(14) daily ≈ 0.020–0.023. Implies an expected 24h move band of roughly ±0.022 around spot: 0.235–0.279.
• Bollinger Bands (daily, 20,2): Mid ≈ 0.229; Upper ≈ 0.269; Lower ≈ 0.189. Price is in the upper half but not at an extreme; upper band aligns with our upside target zone.
• Bollinger (hourly): Noticeable squeeze; bandwidth narrowing signals imminent expansion. Break above ~0.260 should widen bands and carry price into 0.266–0.270.
• Keltner Channels (daily): Mid ≈ 0.229; Upper ≈ 0.229 + 1.5*ATR ≈ 0.262. Aligns with first resistance.

Volume, flow, and participation

• Volume (daily): Rising into Sep 12–13, then receded into consolidation—healthy sequence (impulse on higher volume, pullback on lower volume = constructive). No distribution signature visible.
• Hourly volume: Light-to-moderate with slight upticks on pushes toward 0.258–0.259, suggesting mild demand absorption of offers below the cap.
• OBV (qualitative): Trending up since Sep 1 low; no marked divergence.
• CMF/MFI (qualitative): Likely positive over last week consistent with accumulation near 0.24–0.25.

Ichimoku (contextual)

• Daily: Price likely above Tenkan (~0.248) and Kijun (~0.236); cloud ahead thin to flat. Tenkan > Kijun and price > cloud (or at least > Kijun) is a bullish construct; flat Kumo levels around 0.236/0.24 act as pull magnets only if support breaks.
• Hourly: Price hovering at/above cloud with flat Senkou B near 0.255, a magnet/support; bullish if we hold above the cloud into the next sessions.

Trend strength and quality

• ADX (daily, est.): ~18–22. Emerging trend but not extended. Leeway for fresh thrust without exhaustion.
• Donchian (20D): High ~0.281, Low ~0.193, Mid ~0.237. Price above mid indicates control leaning to buyers.

Classical levels and confluence

• Daily Pivot (from Sep 17: H 0.262, L 0.2393, C 0.2599):
  • Pivot P ≈ 0.2537
  • R1 ≈ 0.2682
  • R2 ≈ 0.2764
  • S1 ≈ 0.2455 These match Bollinger/Keltner confluence, with R1 right near our take-profit band.

Fibonacci mapping

• Using swing low (Sep 1: 0.1934) to swing high (Sep 13: 0.2809):
  • 38.2% ≈ 0.2268; 50% ≈ 0.2372; 61.8% ≈ 0.2475.
  • Pullback respected 61.8% (0.2469 low on Sep 16), then reclaimed above 50% and 61.8%—bullish.
  • 78.6% ≈ 0.2622—precisely at the immediate lid. A decisive close above 0.262 likely targets 0.269–0.274.

Pattern diagnostics

• Ascending triangle (hourly): Higher lows into a horizontal supply band at 0.260–0.262. Measured move = height (~0.008–0.010) added to breakout line → 0.268–0.272.
• Volatility compression: Hourly Bollinger/Keltner squeeze—often precedes directional break; context favors upside given higher low structure and MA posture.

Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Bullish breakout (55–60%): Hold 0.254–0.256, push through 0.260–0.262, expand toward 0.266–0.270 (R1/upper bands). Stretch case 0.272–0.274 if momentum spikes.
• Range-continuation (30–35%): 0.252–0.260 ping-pong, with mean-revert to ~0.256 VWAP; low realized volatility.
• Bearish failure (10–15%): Lose 0.252, sweep 0.251 liquidity, extend to 0.248–0.247 (61.8% retrace / prior HL). Deeper risk to 0.245 or 0.240 only if risk-off returns.

Trade thesis

• Bias: Mildly bullish. Multiple-tool confluence (Fibo 78.6% lid, pivot R1, Keltner upper, Bollinger upper) suggests a clean target window just above current, while supports cluster tightly below. Ascending triangle plus squeeze implies a near-term expansion with favorable skew.
• Optimal execution: Buy the dip into the 0.2545–0.2560 liquidity pocket (prior micro base, hourly cloud top/VWAP). Avoid chasing into the 0.260 wall; let the market come to you.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk control, not part of the required output fields): Below 0.2485 (under Sep 16 HL and 61.8% retrace), recognizing that a firm break there degrades the setup. That gives an estimated R:R ~2:1 with the TP below.

Key confluences at target

• 0.266–0.269 = Pivot R1, daily Keltner upper band (~0.262–0.264, allowing momentum overshoot), Bollinger upper (~0.269), triangle measured move, and late-session liquidity attractor.

Bottom line forecast (24h)

• Expect a dip-to-buy around 0.255, then a test of 0.260–0.262. Odds slightly favor an upside breakout toward 0.267–0.269 before the next daily close. Downside likely contained by 0.252–0.248 barring new negative catalysts.

Trade plan specifics

• Action: Buy (long) on a limit near 0.2558 to maximize risk-adjusted fill probability.
• Take-profit: 0.2688 (captures the R1/upper-band confluence; conservative before 0.270 round number to improve fill).
• Optional (not requested but prudent): Protective stop 0.2486, trail to 0.2575 post-break above 0.262.

Why now

• Price trades above key daily MAs, momentum is constructive, and hourly compression with higher lows into resistance tilts probability to an upside expansion. The entry leverages the nearby support stack for favorable R:R, with clearly defined invalidation below 0.248–0.249.