PNUT Coiling at Support: Targeting a Squeeze Pop Toward 0.249

Executive summary

• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish within a range. Expect a drift toward 0.245–0.250 with whipsaws to 0.238–0.240 on dips.
• Plan: Buy the dip near 0.239–0.240 with a profit objective into 0.249–0.250. Invalidation on a clean hourly close <0.2365 (discussed for risk control; not an order instruction).

1. Multi-timeframe trend read

• Higher timeframe (Daily): From the mid-July spike (0.338 high on 7/20) PNUT mean-reverted lower into late Aug (0.202 close on 8/25). Since Sep 1 low (0.193), structure has improved: a sequence of higher lows and a series of tests into the mid-0.25s/0.26s (9/12–9/18). Current price (0.2407) sits above the 20D moving average (est. ~0.232) and around/below an estimated 50D average (~0.244–0.248), i.e., neutral-to-slightly constructive mid-term trend, pulling back into support.
• Medium timeframe (4H/Hourly proxy from intraday tape): Tight, range-bound consolidation 0.238–0.244 the past day, with a volatility contraction following the early-September expansion. Price is coiling near the lower third of the recent 2-week value area (approx. 0.239–0.262), favoring tactical mean reversion higher toward the value midpoint (~0.250–0.252) if support holds.

2. Support / resistance mapping

• Immediate supports:
  • 0.238–0.240: Hourly cluster lows and micro shelf from 02:00–11:00 and 18:00–19:00 UTC.
  • 0.233–0.236: Dense daily demand from late Aug/early Sep; also near daily Kijun (see Ichimoku).
  • 0.225, then 0.208–0.213: Deeper daily demand shelves (backup levels if regime shifts).
• Overhead resistances:
  • 0.245–0.246: Classic pivot (P) magnet and intraday supply from 9/14–9/16; mid-range.
  • 0.248–0.252: Fib 38.2–50% retrace zone of 0.2667→0.2375 downswing; frequent rejection band.
  • 0.258–0.262: Prior acceptance/high-volume node, and 61.8% retrace proximity.

3. Moving averages

• 20D SMA (approx.): ~0.232. Price above this, signaling a short-term bullish bias.
• 50D SMA (approx.): ~0.244–0.248. Price just below/near this zone; a push through 0.245–0.248 would confirm momentum restoration.
• Interpretation: Bullish skew short-term; neutral test against mid-term average overhead.

4. Momentum oscillators

• RSI(14) Daily: Estimated low-50s (neutral positive). RSI not overbought; room to advance.
• RSI(14) Hourly: Estimated high-40s to ~50, after bouncing from sub-45 earlier; supports a mild positive turn from range lows.
• Stochastic (Hourly): %K likely recovering from ~30–40 area; ripe for a range pop toward mid/upper band before risking a re-cycle.
• Read: Momentum is reset and rotating up from support, consistent with a buy-the-dip within range strategy.

5. MACD

• Daily: The early-September upswing created a positive MACD regime; recent pullback flattened histogram without a decisive bear cross. This often precedes another attempt higher if price holds key supports (0.236–0.240).
• Hourly: MACD lines curling up from a shallow negative; histogram improving — matches a near-term bounce thesis.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: Price sits inside bands, slightly above the 20D basis (~0.232). No band pinch on daily, but not stretched; permits continuation higher toward upper quartile (~0.248–0.252) without overextension.
• Hourly: Noticeable squeeze (0.238–0.244). Squeezes precede impulse; given positioning near support and slight positive drift, odds marginally favor an upside band expansion.

7. Volume, OBV, and participation

• Volume profile: Larger activity on advances around 9/12–9/13; subsequent pullback on lighter volume suggests consolidation rather than distribution. Today’s intraday prints are modest, typical weekend conditions; breakouts may thin-slice liquidity and travel quickly at session transitions.
• OBV (qualitative): Sideways-to-slightly up since early September; no clear distribution signature into current levels.

8. Volatility and ATR

• Recent daily ranges imply ATR(14) roughly ~0.011–0.013. With spot at 0.2407, a 1xATR move points to ~0.252 up or ~0.228 down for extremes. Planning a take-profit inside 1xATR (0.249–0.250) increases fill probability within 24h.

9. Fibonacci reference (most recent swing)

• Swing: 0.26666 (9/12 high) → 0.23746 (9/19 low); span ≈ 0.02920.
  • 23.6%: 0.24436
  • 38.2%: 0.24862
  • 50%: 0.25206
  • 61.8%: 0.25550
• Current price (0.2407) is below 23.6% but above swing low, improving R:R for buys. A fair tactical target is 38.2–50% (0.2486–0.2521) into the next 24h if the squeeze resolves up.

10. Ichimoku (Daily approximation)

• Tenkan (9): ~0.249 (mid of last 9 high/low, dominated by the 0.2667 high).
• Kijun (26): ~0.237 (mid of last 26 high/low; high ~0.2809 on 9/13, low ~0.193 on 9/1).
• Senkou A (lead): ~(Tenkan+Kijun)/2 ≈ 0.243.
• Read: Price above Kijun and hovering near cloud boundary; below Tenkan. Typical bullish-continuation setup if price pushes through Senkou A (~0.243) back toward Tenkan (~0.249).

11. Pivot points (Classic) using 9/19 (H=0.25998, L=0.23746, C=0.23933)

• P ≈ 0.24559; R1 ≈ 0.25372; S1 ≈ 0.23120; R2 ≈ 0.26811; S2 ≈ 0.22307.
• With price below P but above S1, a reversion toward P (0.2456) is statistically favored if support holds. R1 (0.2537) likely requires a broader session expansion; targeting under R1 (0.249–0.250) increases hit rate.

12. Market structure and patterns

• Daily: Gentle sequence of higher lows from 9/1; constructive base above 0.233. The 0.258–0.262 zone capped the last push; current action may be a handle within a larger basing pattern.
• Hourly: Rectangular range 0.238–0.244 with a minor series of higher intraday lows. Presence of doji/small-bodied candles signals indecision before expansion; the minor higher lows favor an upward resolution.

13. Mean-reversion vs trend-following lens

• ADX likely low on hourly; mean reversion is the edge: buy near lower band/value (0.238–0.240) and realize profits into mid/upper band (0.245–0.250). Trend-following signals (daily MACD/MA stack) provide a tailwind but are not dominant yet.

14. VWAP and intraday positioning

• Daily VWAP proxy since session start near ~0.239–0.240; current price slightly above → indicates intraday buyers in control. Pullbacks to VWAP (~0.239–0.240) are attractive for entries when accompanied by stalled downside momentum.

15. Elliott Wave (heuristic)

• From 9/1 low: Impulsive advance into 9/12 (wave 3), consolidation/pullback into 9/19 (wave 4), and potential start of a modest wave 5 targeting prior supply (0.248–0.255). Not a full count, but consistent with a near-term pop.

16. Risk management context (for analysis completeness)

• Invalidation: A decisive hourly close below 0.2365 would crack the Kijun/cluster support and open 0.233 and 0.231 (S1).
• Opportunity: Targeting 0.249–0.250 provides ~+3.5% from a 0.240 entry with a plausible stop ~0.2365 (−1.5%), a >2:1 reward-to-risk if managed actively.

17. Scenario probabilities (next 24 hours)

• Bullish base-case (≈60%): Hold 0.238–0.240, rotate up through 0.243–0.246, tag 0.248–0.250.
• Neutral chop (≈25%): Continue 0.238–0.244 range; multiple failed micro-breakouts; end near 0.242–0.244.
• Bearish risk (≈15%): Lose 0.238 and 0.2365 on volume, sweep 0.233–0.235 liquidity before rebounding.

18. Synthesis

• Multiple tools converge: price near multi-touch support, above 20D SMA, above daily Kijun, inside hourly Bollinger squeeze, under daily Tenkan/50D resistance — a classic dip-buy setup targeting the mid-range/Pivot area. Fib confluence at 0.248–0.252 provides a natural take-profit pocket.

Actionable plan (24h tactical)

• Entry (limit): 0.2393–0.2400 zone to exploit small pullbacks toward VWAP and lower band.
• Take-profit (TP): 0.2498 (just under Fib 38.2% and within ATR), front-running the 0.250 round number and pre-R1 supply.
• Invalidation (for reference): A firm hourly close <0.2365 would negate the setup and favor stepping aside.

Prediction

• Expect an upside resolution of the hourly squeeze with a grind to 0.245–0.250. Highest-probability path: brief dip to ~0.239–0.240, then progressive bids lift toward 0.247–0.249; fading momentum into the close as supply emerges below 0.250.