PNUT: Bearish Drift Meets Intraday Exhaustion — Tactical Long Into 0.22

Overview and context

• Instrument: PNUT (Peanut the Squirrel). Currency: $. Current price: 0.2125718. Data window: Daily from 2025-07-10 to 2025-10-07 and high-frequency intraday for 2025-10-06 to 2025-10-07.
• Market regime (HTF): Since mid-July’s peak near 0.33, price has been in a primary downtrend with lower highs/lows, punctuated by bear-market rallies. Q3 lows clustered in the 0.200–0.206 zone; rallies have been capped repeatedly in the 0.222–0.229 band and more strongly at 0.235–0.244.
• Near-term (last 2 weeks): Rebound early Oct to 0.226–0.231 failed; today saw a swift intraday drop from ~0.226 toward 0.208–0.209, followed by stabilization around 0.210–0.213.

1. Multi-timeframe structure and trend

• Daily structure: Lower-high sequence since mid-September’s 0.26–0.28 spike; successive pullbacks keep finding demand near 0.200–0.206. The last upswing (Oct 1–2) pushed closes to 0.224–0.226 but lacked follow-through; today’s downside retest respects the broader descending channel.
• Intraday (hourly): Clear down leg from 08:00 to 15:00 (0.219 → 0.209) with heaviest selling into the 14:00–15:00 window. Subsequent hours showed basing/sideways with marginally higher closes (0.209 → 0.211 → 0.2127). That’s a classic exhaustion-cum-stabilization pattern after a trend day down.
• Channel context: Price remains inside a descending channel from mid-September; today tagged the lower half of the channel and bounced, consistent with mean-reversion attempts that typically follow impulsive pushes to a channel boundary.

2. Key support/resistance (confluence mapping)

• Immediate supports: 0.209–0.210 (intraday shelf formed 15:00–19:00), then 0.206–0.2065 (daily S2 pivot confluence; see pivots below), and the structural floor 0.200–0.202 (multi-touch Sept 27–Oct 1).
• Immediate resistances: 0.213–0.214 (micro pivot), 0.216–0.217 (yesterday’s S1 / 38.2% retrace zone), 0.218–0.220 (50–61.8% retrace of today’s down leg), 0.222–0.224 (10–20D MA cluster and prior breakdown area), 0.226–0.228 (failed bounce zone).

3. Moving averages and slope analysis

• 5D SMA ≈ 0.2189 (using 10/3–10/7 closes). Price is below → short-term bearish, but within one ATR of mean.
• 10D SMA ≈ 0.214–0.215 by inspection; price slightly below/near → suggests mean-reverting magnet just above spot.
• 20D SMA ≈ 0.218–0.220; 50D SMA likely in the 0.225–0.235 zone, both above price → confirms broader downtrend with resistance overhead.
• EMA9/EMA21 (qualitative): EMA9 ~0.217, EMA21 ~0.219–0.220. Price below both; distance narrowed after the drop, which often precedes a short-term reversion toward EMA9. Interpretation: Trend still down on daily, but distance to short MAs favors a tactical snapback to 0.215–0.219.

4. Oscillators (RSI/Stoch/MACD)

• Daily RSI(14): Likely mid-40s after today’s drop (was near 50 on Oct 2), indicating mild bearish momentum but not oversold. Room for either direction; closer to mean-reversion zone than to trend-acceleration extremes.
• Hourly RSI: Fell into high-20s/low-30s during the 15:00 low; subsequent recovery to ~40–45 into the close suggests momentum trough is in for the session → supports bounce attempts.
• MACD Daily: Recently crossed up during early-Oct bounce but histogram has been contracting; today likely caused a flattening/curl-down. Not a clean bearish impulse yet; could go flat-line if price bases 0.210–0.214 next.
• MACD Hourly: Negative but improving histogram since 15:00 → bullish momentum divergence relative to price’s lower low vs 14:00. Interpretation: Oscillators favor a modest bounce/sideways over immediate continuation lower, absent fresh selling pressure.

5. Volatility and Bollinger Bands

• Daily ATR(14) rough estimate: ~0.010–0.012 (typical daily range in recent weeks). Today’s swing (0.228 → 0.208) reached ~1.6–2.0x a small ATR slice intraday before settling.
• Bollinger Bands (20D, 2σ): Midline ~0.219; lower band likely ~0.203; upper ~0.235–0.240. Current price sits in lower third, above the lower band → risk skew favors mean reversion to the mid-band over the next 1–2 sessions.
• Hourly bands: After a lower-band walk into 15:00, price reverted toward the median and is now hugging the mid/lower band → typically allows a push to the upper band (0.215–0.217) if sellers don’t reassert immediately.

6. Fibonacci mapping (today’s impulse)

• Swing used: 10/7 high 0.2280 to low ~0.2084–0.2089.
• Key retraces from 0.2086 base: 38.2% ≈ 0.2159; 50% ≈ 0.2182; 61.8% ≈ 0.2204. Interpretation: The most probable mean-reversion targets sit at 0.216 and 0.218, with a stretch to 0.220 if momentum improves. These align with intraday resistance shelves and MA cluster.

7. Classical floor pivots (using 10/6 H/L/C: H≈0.2312, L≈0.2137, C≈0.2262)

• Pivot P ≈ (H+L+C)/3 ≈ 0.2237.
• S1 ≈ 2P − H ≈ 0.2162; S2 ≈ P − (H−L) ≈ 0.2062; R1 ≈ 0.2337. Observation: Today’s low probed just above S2 (~0.2079), and price bounced back to the 0.212–0.213 region. The natural magnet is a test back toward S1 ≈ 0.2162. If reclaimed and held, 0.218–0.220 comes into play.

8. Ichimoku (qualitative)

• Daily: Price below Kumo; Tenkan ≈ 0.215–0.216; Kijun ≈ 0.220–0.221. Chikou below price. Full bearish state, but Tenkan/Kijun are not far above spot → near-term magnetism toward Tenkan/Kijun possible after an overshoot down.
• Hourly: Price below cloud during the dump; post-bounce, Tenkan flattening and Kijun slightly above price (~0.214–0.215). A TK cross up from depressed levels would support a test of 0.216–0.218 within 24h.

9. Volume and order flow tells

• Daily volumes over the past week are moderate; no capitulation-level spike today, but intraday showed concentrated selling 14:00–15:00 followed by lower-volume stabilization → common in late-stage intraday down legs.
• Likely volume nodes: 0.213–0.214 (recent micro pivot), 0.218–0.220 (prior acceptance). The former now acts as immediate pivot; flipping 0.213/0.214 to support is step one for a bounce extension.

10. Candlestick/price action patterns

• Hourly: A small hammer-ish reaction around 15:00 followed by higher closes into 19:00–20:00 indicates waning sell pressure. No strong bullish engulf, but constructive basing.
• Daily: If today closes near 0.212–0.214, it prints a long lower-shadow type day relative to yesterday’s close, near prior S2. This often precedes a day-2 mean reversion toward S1/MA cluster barring adverse catalysts.

11. Mean-reversion, regression, and VWAP

• Intraday anchored VWAP (today) likely resides above current price (~0.214–0.216) given the early session time spent at higher levels. Price below VWAP suggests a pull-to-VWAP setup if sellers remain inactive; that aligns with 0.215–0.216 first target.
• Linear regression slope (hourly last 24h) is down but flattening over the past 5 hours → probability shift from trend continuation to range probing.

12. Scenario analysis (next 24 hours)

• Base case (55%): Stabilization over 0.210–0.211, reclaim 0.213–0.214 pivot, then drift to 0.216–0.218 with potential wick to 0.220. This is a classic post-impulse mean reversion toward MA/ VWAP/Fib confluence.
• Bear case (30%): Early failure at 0.213–0.214 leads to a retest of 0.209–0.210; a brief undercut to 0.206–0.207 (pivot S2 zone) possible before bouncing back to the low 0.210s by end of window.
• Bull stretch (15%): Strong reclaim of 0.216 early, accelerating into 0.219–0.222 where the 20D SMA/ prior supply sits; fade likely on first touch absent volume expansion.

13. Risk management and trade structuring

• Rationale to lean long: Multiple mean-reversion signals (hourly bullish divergence, proximity to S2 pivot, distance from 20D MA, Bollinger lower-third location, and intraday VWAP below pull) favor a tactical bounce. Higher timeframe trend is still down, so treat as countertrend fade into 0.216–0.220 and avoid chasing beyond 0.220–0.222 unless volume/structure improve.
• Suggested entry: Buy on a minor dip toward 0.2115–0.2120 (just above the 0.210 shelf) to keep risk tight. If price jumps first, consider a pullback fill after 0.213 reclaim.
• Profit target: 0.219–0.220 (between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of today’s leg and near hourly upper band) before bigger supply at 0.222.
• Invalidation/stop (for risk control; informational): Below 0.2078 (beneath S2 and today’s reaction low). That keeps R:R around 1.6–1.9 for a 0.2118 entry targeting ~0.2198.

Bottom line and 24h prediction

• Expect a modest upward drift toward 0.216–0.219 after basing above 0.210. Primary trend remains bearish; plan is a tactical long to capture mean reversion into layered resistance, not a swing reversal.

Decision: Buy (Long position)

• Optimal Open (limit): 0.2118 (just below spot to capture a routine dip into the 0.211 area).
• Target Close (take profit): 0.2198 (below the 61.8% retrace/MAs to front-run supply).