PNUT poised for a post-capitulation pop: Buy the dip toward $0.160, target the $0.169 pivot cluster

Executive summary

• Instrument: Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT)
• Current price: $0.16212185 (as of 2025-10-13 20:55 UTC)
• Context: Three-session rebound following a capitulation flush on 2025-10-10 (intraday low ~$0.0686, close ~$0.1340). Price has reclaimed the mid-$0.15s and printed a fresh intraday high near $0.1633 today with rising intraday volume.
• Bias (next 24h): Moderately bullish with a buy-the-dip plan into $0.158–0.160 support, targeting a push toward the $0.168–0.170 resistance band.

Step-by-step technical analysis (multi-timeframe)

1. Price structure and trend (daily)

• July to early October: progressive downtrend from the $0.33–0.23 zone into the low $0.20s, culminating in an accelerated selloff into the second week of October.
• 2025-10-10: capitulation day (range 0.208→0.0686→0.1340 close) with the largest daily volume in the dataset (129.9M). This often marks a selling climax and initiates a reflexive rebound.
• 2025-10-11 to 10-12: stabilization and first bounce (closes 0.1366 → 0.1503), forming a textbook “morning star”-style three-candle reversal (long down day → small indecision → bullish up day).
• 2025-10-13 (today): continuation higher to ~$0.163 (intraday high 0.16333). Structure now shows higher lows since 0.133–0.136 and successive higher closes. Trend on daily remains below the larger moving averages (still officially down on higher timeframe), but short-term momentum has flipped positive.

2. Price structure and trend (hourly)

• Hourly sequence since 2025-10-12 shows a clear series of higher lows (0.1477 → ~0.1496 → ~0.1505 → ~0.1512 → ~0.1546 → ~0.1573) and higher highs (0.1539 → 0.1555 → 0.1561 → 0.1596 → 0.1633). This is a constructive intraday uptrend.
• The last push from 19:00–20:00 UTC broke to 0.1633, followed by a shallow pullback to ~0.1621, suggesting continuation unless a deeper retrace to 0.159–0.160 occurs.

3. Moving averages (estimates)

• Daily 20SMA: still well above current price (given the pre-crash prices in the low/mid-$0.20s); price remains below the 20/50-day trend filters, indicating the broader downtrend is not yet reversed. However, the distance to the 20SMA has narrowed since 10-10.
• Hourly EMAs (10/20/50): price is trading above the short and intermediate intraday EMAs; a bullish EMA stack likely (10>20>50) after today’s rally, consistent with an intraday trend-up environment.
• Interpretation: Daily trend is “bearish but rebounding,” while intraday is “bullish.” This sets up a short-term long trade within a larger corrective bounce.

4. Momentum indicators

• Daily RSI(14) (qualitative): rebounded from deeply oversold (post-crash) to the mid-40s range; still below 50 but rising. This indicates a developing recovery that has not yet become overbought on daily.
• Hourly RSI(14): printed strong readings during the 18:00–20:00 UTC rally; likely in the 60–70 zone with mild bearish-to-neutral reset on the pullback to ~0.162. Momentum remains positive intraday.
• Stochastics (hourly): cycled into overbought on the 0.1633 spike; a pullback toward 0.159–0.160 would reset oscillators and provide a higher-probability continuation entry.
• MACD (hourly): histogram positive, signal cross to the upside earlier in the session; daily MACD histogram turning up from deeply negative, signaling early-stage momentum shift typical of reflex bounces.

5. Volatility and ranges

• Daily ATR spiked on 10-10 then compressed on 10-11/12; today’s range expansion is healthy for a bounce continuation. Expect elevated but manageable volatility for the next 24h.
• Hourly ATR suggests typical swings of ~0.002–0.004; a pullback of 1–2 ATRs would land near 0.158–0.160. Upside of ~0.006–0.008 would target 0.168–0.170.

6. Bollinger Bands

• Daily: price blew out of the lower band on 10-10 and re-entered; bounces from a BB breach often continue toward the middle band over several sessions. Given the elevated bands (due to prior higher prices), the mid-band remains well above; however, price is progressing from the extreme lower envelope toward intermediate resistances.
• Hourly: price has been walking the upper band since ~18:00 UTC; slight mean reversion is probable, favoring a dip-buy plan into the rising middle band/short EMA cluster (~0.158–0.160).

7. Ichimoku (trend-following confirmation)

• Daily: price remains below Kumo; Tenkan below Kijun but curling; lagging span still under price history. Net: not yet a higher-timeframe trend reversal.
• Hourly: price above Kumo, Tenkan > Kijun, with a bullish Kumo twist developing; lagging span above price. Net: intraday uptrend confirmed.

8. Volume, OBV, and flow

• Capitulation volume 10-10 followed by two sessions of declining volume and today’s pickup into the close: classic “capitulation → absorption → bounce” profile.
• Intraday volume built into the breakout above 0.159–0.160; OBV on hourly (qualitatively) trending up, supportive of further upside after pullbacks.

9. Fibonacci mapping

• Major swing (pre-crash high to crash low): using 2025-10-03 high 0.229669 and 2025-10-10 low 0.068563 yields:
  • 38.2%: ~0.12996 (reclaimed)
  • 50%: ~0.14912 (reclaimed)
  • 61.8%: ~0.16813 (next major resistance)
  • 78.6%: ~0.1953 (stretch target beyond 24h)
• Intraday swing (today): low 0.147746 → high 0.163330; retracement levels:
  • 38.2%: ~0.1574
  • 50%: ~0.1555
  • 61.8%: ~0.1537 A dip into 0.157–0.160 aligns with Fibonacci support and rising intraday EMAs.

10. Classical pivots (using 2025-10-12 H/L/C: 0.155882/0.133234/0.150303)

• Pivot P ≈ 0.14647
• R1 ≈ 0.15971 (tagged today)
• R2 ≈ 0.16912 (next overhead target)
• S1 ≈ 0.13706
• Confluence: R2 ≈ 0.169 aligns closely with the 61.8% retracement (0.1681). Strong resistance band at 0.168–0.170.

11. Support/resistance and liquidity map

• Immediate support: 0.1600 (psych level and breakout retest), then 0.1580 (intraday EMA/Fib 38.2%), 0.1555 (intraday 50% retrace), and 0.150–0.151 (prior hourly base and round number).
• Immediate resistance: 0.1633 (today’s high), 0.166–0.167 (minor intraday supply), 0.168–0.170 (Fib 61.8% + Pivot R2 confluence), then 0.173–0.175 (measured move extension), and 0.183–0.185 (prior swing congestion/early post-crash supply).

12. Pattern and market structure techniques

• Wyckoff lens: 10-10 = Selling Climax; 10-11 = Automatic Rally/Secondary Test; 10-12 to 10-13 = beginning of Phase B/C intraday markup. Not yet a full daily accumulation, but intraday markup phase supports long-within-range tactics.
• Mean reversion + trend blend: after an upper-band walk, a 1–2 ATR pullback into rising 10–20 EMA typically provides a higher R:R continuation entry. That syncs with 0.158–0.160.
• Measured move: 0.1477→0.1596 (~0.0119), projected from 0.158 retest = 0.1699 (again lining up with R2/Fib 61.8%).

13. Risk assessment and what invalidates

• Upside case risk: a failure to hold 0.158 on a retest would increase odds of a deeper pullback to 0.155–0.156. Loss of 0.150–0.151 would dent the bullish intraday structure and convert setup to neutral-to-bearish in the 24h window.
• Downside tail risk remains elevated post-crash; however, the absence of immediate further selling pressure after spike lows and the presence of higher lows reduce probability of a full retrace in the next 24h.

Synthesis and 24-hour outlook

• Multiple independent tools converge on the same map: buy-the-dip toward 0.158–0.160 with an upside magnet at 0.168–0.170 (R2 + 61.8% retrace + measured move completion). Momentum is supportive on the hourly, while daily is in early rebound mode after capitulation. Volume behavior is consistent with continued recovery.
• Expected path: early-session pullback toward 0.159–0.160 (potentially as low as 0.157–0.158), stabilization above 0.158, then a push to challenge 0.166–0.170. If 0.1633 breaks cleanly with volume, impulse can extend without a deep retest; otherwise, look for a shallow dip to reload.
• Probability-weighted bias (next 24h): mildly bullish. Estimated odds: 60–65% for a probe of 0.168–0.170, 25–30% chop 0.156–0.164, 10–15% downside break below 0.152.

Trade plan

• Direction: Buy (long) on a controlled pullback.
• Entry (limit): $0.1600 (in the confluence zone; allows a fill on modest mean reversion without chasing at extremes).
• Take-profit (24h objective): $0.1698 (just above Pivot R2 and close to 61.8% retracement at ~$0.1681, capturing the measured-move completion while front-running the heavier 0.170 offers).
• Rationale: Confluence of technical levels (Fib 61.8%, Pivot R2, measured move) and intraday trend support make 0.169–0.170 the high-probability target zone for the next 24h. Entry at 0.1600 balances fill probability and reward.

Notes

• While not requested in the output fields, a prudent protective stop for risk control would sit below 0.1555 (intraday 50% retrace) or more conservatively below 0.150. Reward-to-risk from 0.1600→0.1698 is ~+0.0098; against a 0.1555 stop (~0.0045 risk) yields >2:1 R:R.
• If momentum accelerates and 0.170 breaks on volume, consider scaling beyond the initial target toward 0.173–0.175. Conversely, if 0.158 fails, patience for a better base near 0.155–0.156 is advised.

Conclusion

• The evidence stack (capitulation → rebound, hourly trend up, confluence of targets at 0.168–0.170, supportive momentum/volume) favors a tactical long over the next 24 hours with a dip entry and a target just under major resistance.